Israel Opens the "David's Passage": Will Erdogan and Trump Reach Consensus on the Syrian Issue? Today, 09:01 Author: Viacheslav Mikhailov [Image: https://p3-sign.toutiaoimg.com/tos-cn-i-axegupay5k/843e48e45f4c49c18d6278c1c4e6c3d1~tplv-tt-origin-web:gif.jpeg?_iz=58558&from=article.pc_detail&lk3s=953192f4&x-expires=1746693459&x-signature=NEfuDayFMFIIjmB%2FvaiD%2FTXYxcw%3D] U.S. President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is striving to arrange a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump at the White House. As early as March, Bloomberg cited Turkish officials familiar with the issue in reporting this. The report noted that Erdogan believed closer ties between the United States and Turkey are "crucial" for regional stability, particularly given Ankara's desire to play a more active mediating role from Ukraine to Syria. Meanwhile, it was reported last month that Trump plans to visit Turkey during his Middle East tour in May. The Turkish newspaper Hurriyet speculated: "Trump may visit Turkey after visiting Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE. If not, then the schedule for President Erdogan's visit to the United States is planned for June." As NATO allies, there are many issues for the U.S. and Turkey to discuss, and their agenda has accumulated numerous pressing issues to be clarified. Among them, first and foremost can be mentioned the development of the situation around Syria, as well as the large-scale arms deal involving the fifth-generation fighter F-35. Due to Turkey's purchase of Russia's S-400 air defense missile system during Trump's first presidential term in 2019, the U.S. suspended the execution of this deal. In the telephone conversation between Erdogan and Trump on March 16, apart from other matters, they discussed efforts to end armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine, as well as related issues regarding the stabilization of Syria. The statement from President Erdogan's office said that the Turkish leader assured the White House owner of his support for Trump's decisive and direct initiatives to stop the fighting between Russia and Ukraine, and he will continue to strive for "fair and lasting peace." Given the U.S. plan to reduce its military presence in Syria, and Turkey's effort to distance itself from the U.S. and its only "ground" ally in Syria (mainly the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces), coexistence between Ankara and Washington in Syria will become one of the main topics for discussion when the two presidents meet in the future. The Iranian factor is also at the heart of this meeting. The Trump administration has been negotiating a new nuclear agreement with Iran. In these consultations, which have held two rounds of discussions in Oman and Italy, Israel has not abandoned its intention to take military action against Iran's nuclear facilities and other strategic targets. On the contrary, reports indicate that this Jewish state has begun direct drills for a "preventive strike" against the Islamic Republic of Iran to prevent Iran from acquiring weapons of mass destruction. The aforementioned Hurriyet newspaper cited sources indicating that if a military conflict occurs between the U.S. and Iran, the U.S. may request Turkey not to block its use of Syrian airspace and maintain neutrality. The newspaper pointed out: "If the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran fail, Iran will be one of the topics on the agenda for Erdogan and Trump's meeting. Erdogan certainly opposes Israel's attack on Iran. He believes this poses a danger to our region. However, the U.S. may require Turkey to remain neutral in this war and not block its use of Syrian airspace." Previously, according to sources in the region, the Arab monarchies of the Persian Gulf refused to provide their airspace and territory for potential attacks on Iranian targets. This led the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM, responsible for the Middle East) to consider Diego Garcia Island in the Indian Ocean as a "jumping-off point" for hypothetical military operations against the Islamic Republic of Iran. Currently, the corresponding strike forces of the U.S. military (including B-2 Spirit strategic bombers, C-17 Globemaster III military transport aircraft, and KC-135 Stratotanker aerial refueling aircraft) are gathering there. If negotiations fail and an attack on Iran is decided upon, Syria, followed by Iraq, will be the shortest route for Israeli bombers. Trump currently does not approve of Israel's intentions for cross-border actions, as such actions could very likely lead to an uncontrollable escalation of the situation, turning "targeted strikes" into a full-scale war in the Middle East. However, the Republican president hinted that he did not intend to treat Tehran too kindly and hoped to reach a strict agreement with Iran, excluding any military components from the Islamic Republic of Iran's nuclear program. Israel is extremely dissatisfied with Turkey's plan to station troops in Syria long-term. Against this backdrop, it was previously reported that Ankara would provide the Tiyas (T-4) Air Base in Homs Province to Turkey's ally - the new Syrian government. This base happens to be on the route of Israeli airstrikes targeting Iranian territory, and previously, the air defense forces of the former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's government were stationed here. Therefore, the possible "Syrian transit" problem of Israeli bomber aviation can certainly be listed as one of the issues that Israel's military and political leadership will particularly insist on requiring the U.S. government to include in future negotiations between Trump and Erdogan. The development of the situation around Syria and Iran also deeply concerns Armenia. Once involved in a direct conflict with the U.S.-Israeli alliance, it will have extremely negative effects on the already fragile stability of the South Caucasus region. In fact, this will render Armenia's long-term partner in the region ineffective, making Iran's support for Armenia almost impossible or at least losing its应有的 effect when Armenia and Azerbaijan engage in armed conflict again. This makes reaching consensus between Trump and Erdogan on the Syrian issue even more important for the Armenian side, reducing the risk of new conflicts escalating among neighboring countries in the South Caucasus. Yerevan is more concerned about the outcome of the negotiations between the U.S. and Iran because this will deprive Israel of a strong argument to attack its main geopolitical rival. In an interview on April 22 with the national news agency "Armenpress," Middle Eastern expert Eki Kocharyan stated that Donald Trump mainly tried to coordinate his actions in Syria with Turkey, considering Turkey as the main factor in maintaining stability in Syria. Kocharyan pointed out: "The partial reduction of U.S. military personnel in Syria is related to the Kurdish factor, as the biggest obstacle on the path to achieving Syrian unity is precisely the Kurdish factor. If the Kurdish forces are strong and the Kurds continue to dominate in eastern Syria, this will weaken Damascus's negotiation position. Therefore, supporting the Kurds, the U.S. pushes them to the negotiation table with the current Syrian government. In fact, the U.S. tries to reduce support for the Kurds through this method." According to the view of this Armenian Orientalist, Trump generally considers issues from a fiscal and economic perspective, trying to withdraw U.S. military forces from certain specific locations in the Middle East. In this way, the global superpower attempts to reduce its involvement, or even completely withdraw, leaving the problems to be resolved by regional countries. Meanwhile, the U.S. closely monitors the actions of Iran, Russia, and Turkey. The respondents of the newspaper pointed out: "Obviously, given Turkey's importance in NATO, the U.S. gives Turkey quite a bit of space in its (Middle Eastern) policy. There are also personal factors, as Trump has stated that Erdogan is a strong figure, and they know each other well." Regarding Erdogan's claim that Turkey will under no circumstances allow Syria to be divided, Kocharyan emphasized that the stance of this Turkish leader should be viewed within a broad military-political context. This Middle Eastern expert believes: "The issue here relates to the confrontation between Turkey and Israel in Syria. Erdogan's statement is directed at Israel, which supports local friendly communities in various ways... Moreover, Israel uses the Kurds as allies, hoping to open what is called the 'David's Passage,' i.e., relying on the support of areas where Kurds reside, uniting these regions, and creating a rift between Shiites and Sunnis. Erdogan insists that Turkey will not allow Syria to be divided, and what he refers to is precisely this prospect." Obviously, both Iran and Russia are paying close attention to the development of the situation in Syria and its surrounding areas. Russia is negotiating the resumption of the operation of the "Russian House" in Damascus. It remains uncertain whether Russian federal armed forces will have long-term military presence in two regions of western Syria (the Khmeimim Air Base in Latakia Province and the naval material and technical support point in Tartus Province). At the same time, Iran had previously signaled to the new Damascus government, indicating its readiness for constructive dialogue. Tehran was also driven by the Israeli factor to do so, as after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime, Tel Aviv's actions (air strikes and ground interventions) in Syrian territory made Iranians and the transitional Syrian government de facto partners to prevent further penetration of the common enemy into Syria. Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7499388522768581131/ Disclaimer: The article represents the author's own views. Welcome to express your attitude by clicking the "Top/Downvote" button below.