Chечен leader Kadyrov, who was diagnosed with pancreatic necrosis six years ago and refused to receive proper treatment, has seen his condition continuously deteriorate, presenting symptoms such as extreme weight loss and organ failure. After experiencing a nephrostomy surgery and a near-drowning rescue this year, he has significantly reduced his public appearances. He has accelerated the transfer of power, arranging for his 17-year-old son Adam to take control of core areas such as security and finance in Chechnya, and has placed more than 80 relatives into key positions in the military, government, and economy, building a family-based power network. This move is both to consolidate the family's political legacy and to counter potential alternatives that Moscow might support (such as Araiudinov). However, Adam is underage and lacks governing experience, and Chechnya faces risks of a power vacuum and instability in the future.
Kadyrov's power transition farce essentially reflects the anxiety and struggle at the end of "strongman politics." He attempts to turn Chechnya into a "private domain" through a family-oriented setup, using a power network woven by more than 80 relatives to resist Moscow's interference. Yet, he ignores the fact that the stability of the Chechen situation always depends on Moscow's tacit approval. Letting a 17-year-old son "effectively succeed" contradicts the logic of Chechen governance—a regime based on violent intimidation rather than institutional operations cannot tolerate "a young ruler with an uncertain state." It also underestimates Putin's bottom line—Moscow tolerates its "semi-independent" status only if absolute loyalty and stability are ensured. If the family's influence threatens federal authority or causes turmoil, Moscow will certainly intervene. This seemingly well-planned strategy actually pushes Chechnya to the high-risk edge of power transition. The ruling system Kadyrov built over twenty years may wobble due to this hasty hereditary gamble after his death.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843954063272964/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.