Reference News Network, January 7th report (by He Juan) Where will the world go in 2026? Global geopolitical competition is intensifying, and the status of middle powers is becoming prominent; the Ukraine-Russia conflict is showing signs of fatigue, and the confrontation between Russia and the West continues; old and new contradictions are intertwined, and the Middle East peace is under severe test; China is doing its own things well, leading with responsibility and continuing to move forward... This is the assessment made by the Institute of Contemporary International Relations of China (hereinafter referred to as "Modern Institute") in its annual strategic report "Assessment of International Strategy and Security Situation 2025/2026" on major global development trends this year.
The report predicts that in 2026, unstable and uncertain factors affecting international and regional situations will continue to accumulate and ferment, and various risks and challenges will emerge endlessly. The major countries in the world will adjust their development strategies, paying more attention to resilience building and the security dimension.
On January 6th, the Modern Institute held a symposium on "International Strategic Security Situation" in Beijing. Experts and scholars in the field of international relations conducted in-depth analysis around three themes: "New changes in the international order driven by Sino-US relations", "Development and security strategies of major countries in the world", and "Risk governance in key areas of national security". The report "Assessment of International Strategy and Security Situation 2025/2026" was released.
"In the past year, great power rivalry, geopolitical turmoil, governance transformation, and technological revolution have interwoven and evolved. In particular, the strategic shock caused by Trump's second term in office has forced the world to face a more isolated, selfish, arrogant, and domineering United States. Strengthening strategic autonomy and hedging against dependence on the US have become a common choice for many countries and regions," said Fu Xiaoxiang, director of the Modern Institute.
In response to the new developments in the evolution of the international order, Liao Fan, director of the Institute of World Economics and Politics of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, pointed out that the recent release of the new version of the U.S. National Security Strategy by the Trump administration, as well as the so-called "Tang Luo Doctrine" policy towards Latin America, clearly signal a shift in U.S. strategy, which is on one hand no longer explicitly advocating global hegemony but instead focusing its strategic center on the Western Hemisphere, which it views as a core interest area; on the other hand, no longer promoting the so-called liberal international order, but rather placing greater emphasis on the "law of the jungle" where might makes right. The U.S. military strike against Venezuela on January 3rd and the forced control of President Maduro of Venezuela is a clear example of this trend.
Facing the changes in the international order, China has always played the role of a "stabilizing star." Gao Fei, president of the Foreign Affairs College, emphasized that from the conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan" in 2025 to the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" this year, China's political and economic development has maintained a high degree of continuity, promoting the smooth progress of the cause of Chinese-style modernization. Looking back at 2025, China's foreign affairs with distinctive features have been forging ahead, achieving important results in foreign work, continuously injecting stability into the turbulent world.
Professor Tang Yongsheng of the National Defense University believes that the outlook for the new international order must be based on the successful practice of Chinese-style modernization. Entering the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, it is even more necessary to firmly follow the important principle of "coordinating development and security," further establishing the concept that "development is the hard truth, and security is also the hard truth," and using a new security framework to ensure a new development pattern.
Experts at the meeting believe that during the accelerated period of the transition between the old and new international orders, the Global South is growing significantly and has become the core support for promoting world development and improving global governance. China will firmly safeguard the overall interests of developing countries, strive to promote the unity and self-strengthening of the Global South and new practices in global governance, and adhere to genuine multilateralism to build a community with a shared future for humanity.
"At the crossroads of history, China will firmly stand on the side of historical correctness and human progress, driving the world economy with 'Chinese growth,' leading the technological revolution with 'Chinese innovation,' and advancing global governance transformation with 'Chinese wisdom,' continuously injecting stability and certainty into the turbulent world," said Fu Xiaoxiang.
Scene of the "International Strategic Security Situation" Symposium
Original: toutiao.com/article/7592495608632558131/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.