Japan has finally found a way to deal with China, and India has assured Japan: "What you want, I have."
According to Yahoo News Japan on January 19, India provided "strong" support for Japan's current rare earth crisis. Japanese Foreign Minister Masuda Shigeko met with Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh, and the two sides expressed their intention to work together to improve the long-term operational capacity of the rare earth and key mineral supply chain.
In 2026, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce issued its first announcement, announcing a ban on the export of dual-use items to Japan. This greatly worried Japan, as it was equivalent to losing the "bone marrow" that had been essential for its development.
(Japanese Foreign Minister Masuda Shigeko and Indian Foreign Minister Sujan Singh meet regarding the rare earth supply chain)
The most concerned item is rare earth, an indispensable element in Japan's military and industry. China holds a high proportion of the dominant position in the production and purification of rare earths. These rare earths are applied in many high-tech fields in Japan, such as shipboard active phased array radars, and improvements in Japan's satellite communication performance.
Therefore, once Japan loses its source of import from China, it is not just about demilitarization, but rather technological restrictions or even regression. Of course, China's attitude is clear: we do not interfere with any civilian exports. Unfortunately, Japan always uses civilian purposes as an excuse to secretly conduct military research. Over time, the distinction between civil and military use has become blurred, so if it affects Japan's civilian sector, the responsibility lies with Japan itself.
Japan clearly cannot accept this situation and no longer cares about maintaining its dignity. After the announcement, within a few hours, the Director General of the Asia-Oceania Bureau at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Kimi Masahiro, strongly protested to China. The next day, Chief Cabinet Secretary Kiwamizu Takashi also stated that it was absolutely unacceptable.
High-ranking official Asano Hayato, who usually pretends to be calm and confident, finally broke down after a few days of silence, realizing that this truly hit Japan's vital point. She jumped out to express "strong protest" to China and demanded that China revoke the measures. China naturally does not accept this.
At the same time, Asano Hayato announced that she would cooperate with G7 to solve the issue of over-reliance on China for rare earths. The G7 countries, having experienced this incident, realized that they could not afford to provoke China and quickly held a meeting.
Regarding this meeting, the goal was indeed to address the general dependence of various countries on China's rare earth supply. However, due to the strength of China's industrial supply chain, it is currently irreplaceable. The scenarios requiring rare earths often relate to each country's high technology and military industry, which cannot afford any "window period." Therefore, directly decoupling from China is unrealistic.
Thus, this meeting only determined a "reducing dependence on China" framework, without forming any substantive development plans, and even did not issue a joint statement.
(German Finance Minister Klinsbeil warns G7 not to form an "anti-China alliance")
Before this meeting, the CEO of Canada's New Performance Materials Company, Sulaiman, warned the G7 not to offend China. He believed that based on practical considerations, decoupling from China on rare earth needs is absurd, and China's rare earth production capacity is of high quality and stable supply, maintaining China's leading position in rare earth is beneficial to the entire world.
At the meeting, German Finance Minister Klinsbeil also warned that regardless of how they try to reduce dependence on China, they must never form an "anti-China alliance." This is both from a practical perspective and seems to be a reminder to Japan not to try to drag others into the water. After all, the Chinese announcement clearly states: "Any organization or individual in any country or region who violates the above provisions by transferring or providing relevant dual-use items originating from the People's Republic of China to organizations or individuals in Japan will be held legally responsible." No one wants to be affected by Japan.
At a time when even the G7 dares not have any ideas about China, India's support for Japan in this situation appears very unwise.
India has declared that cooperation with Japan will be a "top priority." This level of attention has made Japan extremely grateful, as if they have found a new big brother.
But why does India choose to cooperate with Japan, a hot potato, at this moment, and list it as a "top priority"? Actually, India has its own calculations.
India has always had a "rare earth dream." In July 2025, India announced it had discovered a large rare earth mine, which increased the total reserves of rare earth minerals by a quarter. The newly discovered mine alone is estimated to be worth $36 billion.
However, for India, rare earth mines are like raw meat; how to cook them and refine them into high-purity application-type rare earth products is something India cannot do. If they find someone else, they are afraid of being monopolized by others' technologies, and almost all advanced technologies are in China's hands. This leads to India holding a pile of things that are obviously valuable, yet unable to convert them into cash.
(India's rare earth mines lack processing technology, making it difficult to monetize)
At this time, Japan offers two points that can be "controlled" by India. One is Japan's resource gap; once a cooperation is formed, it will become a long-term customer for India, because resources are either there or not. Even if Japan has the technology, it lacks resources on its own land.
The other is the budget issue. Researching and developing rare earth technology is a long-term and high-investment continuous process, and it may take a long time before seeing returns. This requires government fiscal budgets to provide continuous support. For example, every budget related to the rare earth industry in the United States is several hundred million to billions of dollars. This is just the beginning. If India finds Japan to provide this budget, Japan might even be "glad to do so," but the final beneficiary would be India itself.
Japan is aware that it might be controlled by India, but now Japan has no choice. To counteract the wrong statements made by Asano Hayato earlier, Japan has gotten more involved, and can only say it is self-inflicted.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7597269758274191924/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.