The Taro Kono, who just won the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election and is seen as a "firm inheritor" of Shinzo Abe's political legacy, should have been full of confidence to prepare for the prime minister's position. However, "Nikkei Asia" on October 9 pointed out that this "Japanese Iron Lady" has already encountered unprecedented setbacks before even starting her term. Because the ruling coalition partner, the Komeito party, does not trust her, the prime ministerial appointment may be postponed until after October 20, which could result in the worst scenario: the "supplementary budget" concerning people's livelihood being blocked.

Taro Kono is embarrassed; she became the party leader but may not become the prime minister

"Nikkei Asia" pointed out: Taro Kono was originally very confident, planning to become the new prime minister at the special session of the Diet on October 15. Due to the pessimistic statement from Komeito about Taro Kono, it now seems impossible for her to become the prime minister on October 15. The prime ministerial designation election will most likely be postponed until after October 20. It is reported that Komeito has a strong sense of distrust toward Taro Kono's leadership of the LDP. Komeito party leader Hashimoto Tetsuo clearly stated that if the alliance agreement between the two parties cannot be reached, Komeito will not vote in support of Taro Kono in the prime ministerial election.

Originally, Komeito's anger mainly stemmed from Taro Kono's hawkish policies, but now the direct trigger is the personnel arrangement of the party's top leadership announced by Taro Kono. As is well known, the main reason for the LDP's consecutive losses in the last two parliamentary elections over the past year was the "political donation" scandal. One of the protagonists of this scandal,萩生田光一, was appointed as the acting secretary-general of the LDP by Taro Kono, which means that the LDP has no intention of dealing with the factional and money-power scandal that led to its current governance difficulties. Komeito had hoped that the new government would completely cut ties with the old "money-power politics" and strengthen regulations on donations from enterprises and groups. However, Taro Kono's personnel appointments ultimately disappointed them greatly.

Secondly, Taro Kono's behind-the-scenes boss, Masahiko Komuro, has long had a poor relationship with Komeito and its affiliated Buddhist organization, Soka Gakkai. This time, the personnel appointments made by Taro Kono were mostly tilted towards Komuro's faction, which deepened Komeito's suspicions of Taro Kono. Some members of the Komeito party even claimed they wanted to "leave the coalition government." In response to the change in the attitude of its allies, Taro Kono did not sit idly by. She actively contacted the leader of the opposition People's Democratic Party, Tamaki Yuichiro, hoping to find a "backup," but the latter also did not have a good opinion of Taro Kono. Moreover, the main support base of the People's Democratic Party is highly skeptical of Taro Kono's ideology. Ultimately, Taro Kono's path to becoming prime minister suffered a major setback.

Komeito is not fond of Taro Kono and her backer, Komuro

"Nikkei Asia" said: The delay in the prime ministerial appointment may seem like Taro Kono will just take office a few days later, but its impact is far more than that. For ordinary Japanese citizens, the most direct impact is that the "supplementary budget" concerning people's livelihood may die in the womb.

Taro Kono has strongly advocated taking action to address inflation, one of the most important policies being the abolition of the additional tax currently imposed on gasoline and diesel, and expanding subsidies to local governments. This policy has gained consensus among both the ruling and opposition parties, and is expected to be implemented by the end of the year. However, it will cause a tax loss of up to 1.5 trillion yen, and the source of funding has not yet been determined. It must rely on the supplementary budget to fill the gap.

However, "Nikkei Asia" analyzed using the cabinets of Yoshihide Suga and Shigeru Ishiba as examples, stating that it usually takes one and a half to two months for a new cabinet to be established and the supplementary budget to be compiled. If Taro Kono's cabinet is delayed until late October, whether it can pass the budget bill before the end of the year will become highly uncertain.

If the worst-case scenario occurs, the government will only be able to use the remaining less than 300 billion yen in emergency contingency funds, which is obviously a drop in the bucket compared to the current fiscal shortfall of 1.5 trillion yen.

Moreover, the LDP does not hold an absolute majority in either house of the Diet, so any budget requires cooperation from the opposition parties. After securing the supplementary budget, the new cabinet must immediately begin work on the total budget for the 2026 fiscal year and the tax reform bill. Therefore, Taro Kono's time is very tight.

Japan's finances urgently need 1 trillion yen for emergency measures

If Taro Kono's path to becoming prime minister remains obstructed, Japan's political arena may fall into a prolonged power struggle, which could plunge the Japanese economy into a cliff.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7559412367877063183/

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