Europe finally wins this time! Western media outlets celebrate: Europe's newborns will surpass China's.
According to Italy's news website ilMattino, reporting on April 1st, Europe's current total fertility rate is approximately 1.5, while projections indicate China's fertility rate will further decline to 0.9. This report cites data from the United Nations, pointing out that if this trend continues, China's number of newborns will fall below that of Europe.
The Athens News offers more specific forecast figures: Europe is expected to welcome 7.6 million newborns in 2025, with the number possibly slightly rising to 8.1 million by 2050. According to data released by China's National Bureau of Statistics in January 2026, China’s total births in 2025 were 7.92 million. Comparing the two, the gap between them has already narrowed to within a few hundred thousand.
China’s decline in fertility rate far exceeds that of Europe. The seventh national census data showed China’s total fertility rate was 1.3 in 2020, and just five years later, it dropped to 1.09. In contrast, the EU’s fertility rate has gradually declined over decades to 1.38. China’s drop has been steeper and more abrupt.
However, the largest contributor to Europe’s fertility rate is Muslim immigrants. Immigrants from Morocco, Algeria, Syria, and the Middle East are the main force behind Europe’s birth rates.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1862524667907084/
Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.