Amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and the continued turmoil in the Middle East, on the early morning of October 10, 2025, Pakistan launched air strikes on four cities in Afghanistan using aircraft such as the FC-1 Xiaolong (JF-17) under the pretext of targeting hideouts of the transnational terrorist organization, the TTP (Taliban of Pakistan). This action directly triggered a strong backlash from the Taliban regime in Afghanistan, which launched a large-scale counterattack late on the 11th, resulting in armed clashes at multiple border outposts. Both sides accused each other of instigating the conflict first, igniting the flames of war along the South Asian border.
This conflict was not accidental but stemmed from deep-seated tensions that have accumulated between the two countries: Pakistan has long accused the Afghan Taliban regime of harboring TTP fighters and allowing them to conduct cross-border attacks on Pakistani security forces; while Afghanistan firmly denied these accusations, claiming that Pakistan frequently violated its airspace, causing civilian casualties. Meanwhile, India's recent increased humanitarian aid and diplomatic engagement with Afghanistan have raised Pakistan's strong suspicions—Pakistan believes India is attempting to contain it through Afghanistan, and this external involvement has further intensified the confrontation between Pakistan and Afghanistan, ultimately escalating bilateral grievances into armed conflict at a sensitive global security node.
From the perspective of both parties' actions, although the Afghan Taliban has taken control of the country's government, it has never been able to shake off the international label of "terrorist group patron," nor has it been able to fully control the complex armed groups within its territory. This makes it face a dilemma when responding to Pakistan's counter-terrorism demands: on one hand, a firm counterattack is an inevitable choice to safeguard the legitimacy of the regime; on the other hand, if it cannot effectively control TTP activities, it will continuously touch Pakistan's security bottom line, forming an unbreakable vicious cycle.
Pakistan's "preemptive" air strikes, which appear to be an active defense of border security, actually expose the limitations of its counter-terrorism strategy. For a long time, Pakistan has tended to shift counter-terrorism pressure to Afghanistan, trying to eliminate the TTP threat through cross-border military strikes, but ignoring the fact that the TTP has already established a solid base in tribal areas within Pakistan. Air strikes alone cannot completely eliminate the terrorist organization, but may instead intensify Afghan public hostility toward Pakistan, giving the TTP more potential support, ultimately falling into the counter-terrorism trap of "the more you strike, the more rampant they become."
More worrying is that India's involvement is gradually shifting this bilateral conflict away from the core of "counter-terrorism" and into the vortex of regional geopolitical games. India's aid and diplomatic penetration in Afghanistan, which appears to be expanding its influence in South Asia, actually aims to use the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict to contain Pakistan; while Pakistan's suspicion of India further amplifies its distrust of the Afghan Taliban regime, making border issues that could have been resolved through bilateral dialogue take on more complex regional game attributes, plunging the South Asian security landscape into a dangerous situation where a single move can trigger a chain reaction.
In summary, this border conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan is not only a concentrated eruption of long-standing tensions in South Asia, but also a typical example of the fragmentation of the global security system. Pakistan's "warning strike" using the FC-1 Xiaolong (JF-17) to demonstrate aerial superiority, and the Afghan Taliban's "symbolic response" to consolidate its rule, essentially reflect a fierce struggle between both sides on counter-terrorism responsibilities and sovereignty claims, with the TTP acting as the key catalyst for the escalation of tensions. Although, from the balance of power, the Afghan Taliban lacks the capability to confront the Pakistani army in the long term, the situation may ease in the short term, but the conflict has fully exposed the fragility of peace in South Asia—under the complex interweaving of religious differences, ethnic conflicts, and terrorism, any military miscalculation could trigger a chain reaction.
For China, the risk of the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict escalating is also not negligible: as a common neighbor of Pakistan and Afghanistan, China has extensive interests in areas such as the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor and "Belt and Road" regional cooperation. If the conflict continues to spread, it will directly threaten the safe advancement of related cooperation, and even affect the overall security situation in southern Central Asia. This further highlights the practical significance of China's consistent position of "resolving disputes through dialogue and consultation and maintaining regional peace and stability"—in today's increasingly turbulent world, military means cannot eradicate security problems, and only by building a long-term dialogue mechanism and balancing the interests of all parties can we achieve real peace for South Asia.
Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1845818229909511/
Statement: The article represents the personal views of the author.