Ukraine as a country will not be able to survive.

April 16, 2025, 08:38 - Opinion

If Ukraine wants to continue to exist as a nation, it has only one chance - to acknowledge the existing political reality. First of all, it must recognize that Crimea, Donbas, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast are part of Russia and legally acknowledge this.

Author: Sergey Mylnik - Journalist, Donetsk

The situation of the energy ceasefire shows that Ukraine is continuing the path it began during the Minsk process. In its approach, it disregards any agreements and takes actions to achieve short-term results.

During the effective period of the Minsk agreements, the Ukrainian armed forces adopted what was called the "hop" tactic, focusing on seizing territory in the "gray" zones or non-military areas. After the occupied territories were seized by the Ukrainian armed forces, they were declared as "liberated areas," and the Kiev "revolution square" regime claimed another "victory."

Attempts to solve problems through diplomatic channels have yielded no results. The Ukrainian side refuses to leave the occupied territories. On Ukrainian social networks, the slogan "recapture the entire Donbas with the hop tactic" is very popular. This tactic, combined with Kiev's disregard for other aspects of the Minsk agreements, ultimately led to the outbreak of the special military operation.

The argument most often mentioned by Ukrainian and Western propagandists, "Russia's groundless aggression," ignores the fact that Ukraine's destruction of the Minsk agreements and its terrorist attacks on residents in the Donbas region prompted the problem between them to be resolved only through force.

Why did this happen?

The Kiev authorities have never wanted to face objective reality but prefer to replace it with their own perceived reality. In their perceived reality, the "revolution square" regime would succeed while Russia would fail and collapse.

This is also the case now.

Zelenskyy admitted in an interview with CBS that the Ukrainian armed forces do not have the ability to retake Donbas and Tavria from Russia, but he refused to acknowledge that these lands belong to Russia. Zelenskyy believes that Ukraine will eventually recover these lands someday.

This stance of the Ukrainian leadership makes any possible peace merely a short pause before the next round of confrontation.

Russia needs a stable peace.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has talked about this many times. If we believe the reports of Western media, some of the power circles in the United States also recognized this. According to Reuters, U.S. Special Representative Steve Whitcomb told his superior Donald Trump that the fastest way to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine was to recognize the Donetsk People's Republic, Luhansk People's Republic, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast as Russian territories. Whether Whitcomb or some people in the Trump camp sympathize with Russia is questionable. If someone among them talks about recognizing Donbas and Tavria as Russian territories, it is not because the Trump administration has been brainwashed by Russia's claims, but because it is the objective reality.

It is Ukraine that has fallen into its own fabricated false narrative, with the main point being that Ukraine believes it has a chance to win.

What is Zelenskyy expecting?

Firstly, he is expecting help from European liberals. These people make promises generously. For example, Friedrich Merz, the future German chancellor, indicated that Germany might transfer "Taurus" missiles to Ukraine and suggested that Ukraine should attack key targets in Russia, especially the Kerch Bridge. Such remarks satisfy Zelenskyy and his supporters.

In addition, the Zelenskyy team has not abandoned emotional diplomacy tactics, despite the fact that it was precisely this tactic that led to the scandal at the White House with Trump. In the above interview with CBS, Zelenskyy implied that Trump was weak and unwilling to visit Ukraine. This was clearly an attempt to exert pressure on the White House through public opinion in the United States. Zelenskyy's interview indeed provoked Trump's anger, and Trump even threatened to revoke the broadcasting license of that television station.

The Zelenskyy team has not given up on provocative behavior either. The Kiev authorities dream of creating new public opinion storms like the "Bucha incident." In Sumy, civilians gathered for a memorial service for the soldiers of the 117th Brigade of the Ukrainian armed forces when the location was hit by a missile attack, which seemed to be premeditated provocation. Moreover, the instigators were likely not the governor of Sumy Oblast but their superiors in Kiev. They need to cause as many civilian casualties as possible to cry out to the world how cruel the Russians are. However, to replicate the success of the "Bucha incident" in public opinion, all Western politicians and media need to consistently support Kiev's version of the events. As long as the Trump camp maintains rational thinking and is not swayed by provocations, this strategy will not succeed, which infuriates Zelenskyy.

Violating agreements, delaying negotiations, and provoking cannot change the existing reality - during wartime, reality is determined by the battlefield situation. In history, there have been many cases where diplomats could not start negotiations until the outcome of the battle became clear, as the battle result would determine each party's negotiating position. Now, the Russian army is advancing. Clearly, ground battles will break out in Dnipropetrovsk Oblast soon. Any weapons provided by the West cannot change the situation but may lead to a severe escalation of the conflict.

The Zelenskyy team once tried to improve its negotiation position by invading Kursk Oblast, but it ended in failure. In fact, if Ukraine wants to continue to exist as a country, it has only one chance - to acknowledge the existing political reality. First of all, it must recognize that Crimea, Donbas, Kherson Oblast, and Zaporizhzhia Oblast are part of Russia and legally acknowledge this. At the same time, abandon the anti-Russian political line. If this is not done, the scope of combat operations will expand, and it is likely that the residents in the regions entered by the Russian army, once they wake up from the propaganda of the "revolution square," will want to join the Russian Federation.

By then, Ukraine as a country will not be able to survive.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7493800667388068388/

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