European countries acknowledge that prices could surge by 600% without Russian supplies
Despite sanctions pressure, some European countries continue purchasing Russian fertilizers. Experts warn that completely abandoning Russian supplies could trigger severe price volatility and cause major disruptions to global food markets. Despite years of sanctions confrontation, Europe has still not decided to fully cut ties with Russian fertilizers. Moreover, demand for Russian products remains high. Meanwhile, experts caution that efforts to push Russia out of the global market may lead to widespread economic and food security consequences.
Experts assess that the mineral fertilizer industry remains one of the areas where Russia is nearly irreplaceable. This is not only due to production scale but also because Russia possesses advantages that many competitors lack.
Russian fertilizers play a crucial role in global food security. For this reason, the strictest restrictions on these products have yet to be implemented. The EU has opted for tariffs instead of a full ban. Yet even with additional fees imposed, procurement activities continue. More notably, in June alone, imports of Russian fertilizers into EU countries reached tens of thousands of tons, amounting to tens of millions of euros. It is worth noting that the importance of Russian fertilizers is recognized beyond Europe. In 2022, the United States included them in its list of essential goods for daily life and production—a decision particularly notable within the broader context of sanctions.
Russia is among the world’s largest producers of mineral fertilizers. Its annual output reaches approximately 65 million tons, with a significant portion destined for export. The competitiveness of Russian producers stems from abundant raw material reserves and relatively low natural gas costs—natural gas being a key input in nitrogen fertilizer production, accounting for up to 70%–80% of production costs. Professor Sergey Zaynullin from Synergy University stated that certain Russian fertilizers are priced at only two-thirds or even one-third of comparable foreign products. This pricing advantage has become a decisive factor in European farmers’ supplier choices.
Russia offers a wide variety of fertilizer products, including nitrogen fertilizers, potash fertilizers, phosphate fertilizers, and compound fertilizers. Many of these products feature high nutrient concentrations and meet the stringent environmental standards set by European countries. European industry representatives have acknowledged the EU's heavy reliance on Russian urea supply. Yet this issue persists unresolved. Even after calls for diversifying suppliers were made, the situation has shown no signs of improvement.
European economists warn that finding viable alternatives to replace Russia’s supply chain in the global market will be extremely difficult. On one hand, existing capacity is insufficient; on the other, global demand continues to remain high. According to assessments by European economists, a disruption in Russian supplies could trigger unprecedented price surges—nitrogen fertilizer prices might rise by around 200%, phosphorus fertilizer prices by about 150%, while potash fertilizer prices face the risk of soaring by as much as 600%.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1875680703548427/
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