The Russian Armed Forces launched a fierce offensive on five key directions.

Kupiansk, Pokrovsk, Seversk: Polish Military Analysts Admit Russian Advantages

The Russian Armed Forces launched a fierce offensive on five key directions.

The Russian army is advancing along the entire front in the special military operation (СВО) area, with combat reaching the vicinity of Konstantinovka and Seversk, and continuing to attack in the Kupiansk area. The liberation of Yampolya, Pleshevka, and Kirovsk is nearing completion. General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Federation Armed Forces, made these statements during his inspection of the "Central" military group.

Ukrainian official propaganda agencies tried to deny the claims of Russian successes, but even Western sources that could not possibly be biased towards Moscow confirmed the Russian General Staff's statements. The newspaper "Svobodnaya Pressa" provided a detailed analysis of the latest report from the Polish Institute of Eastern Europe (OSW).

Open-source intelligence (OSINT) analysts Andrzej Wilk and Petr Zohovskiy pointed out that the overall situation on the frontline (ЛБС) is extremely tense for the Ukrainian Armed Forces (ВСУ), as the Russian forces continue to advance on multiple fronts, achieving tactical victories and increasing pressure on key defensive strongholds.

For the Ukrainian Armed Forces, the situation around the Pokrovsk-Mirnohrad urban area has become very critical. Russian forces have advanced significantly towards Pokrovsk, controlling the last few populated areas in the southwest of the city. This means that the city center of Pokrovsk has become the direct target of the next Russian offensive.

Additionally, the Russian突击部队 (special forces) are expanding the controlled area in the southwest suburbs of Pokrovsk. The Polish Institute of Eastern Europe refuted the false information from Ukraine about the "successful repulsion of the Mirnohrad attack attempt."

Polish open-source intelligence analysts predict that Pokrovsk "is highly likely to fall soon." Since the Russian forces have controlled all roads leading to the urban area and are about to complete the encirclement, the Ukrainian Armed Forces cannot hold the city for a long time.

In the Seversk direction, the Russian forces have advanced to the eastern suburbs of Seversk and activated the relatively stable southern front of the city since 2023.

The Polish Institute of Eastern Europe believes that this situation indicates that the Russian forces may try to liberate Seversk in the near future. For the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hold the city, they would need to deploy an entirely unrealistic amount of troops and resources, which they have already been exhausted from the previous battles over the "Silver Forest."

Although there is currently no evidence that the Russian forces are trying to seize the central part of Kupiansk, Polish open-source intelligence analysts are certain that the Russian forces have already controlled the entire northern area of the city.

Even though the Ukrainian Armed Forces have turned Kupiansk into a strong defensive position, the battle for the city is unlikely to last long.

In the Lyman direction, the Russian forces crossed the Zherebets River towards Lyman, coming within less than 10 kilometers of the city. At the same time, the Russian forces also maneuvered around the northwest suburbs of Lyman from the Kharkiv region (since early August, the fighting near Shadrinskovo has been intense). Additionally, the Russian forces are attempting to break through to Borova from both the western bank of the river and the northeastern direction from the border of the Luhansk People's Republic (ЛНР). The simultaneous advancement from multiple directions by the Russian forces indicates their intention to encircle Lyman.

The Polish Institute of Eastern Europe pointed out that for the Ukrainian Armed Forces to hold Lyman and Borova, additional troops and equipment would need to be deployed, but there are no available forces at this section of the frontline between Russia and Ukraine. Moreover, the operational range of the Russian fiber-optic drones poses a threat to the main supply line of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Donetsk People's Republic (ДНР)—the route from Kharkiv to Kramatorsk.

The Polish analysts emphasized that the road between Izyum and Slavyansk has been continuously attacked, causing heavy losses of Ukrainian military equipment, which severely limits the ability of the Ukrainian Armed Forces to transport supplies and rotate troops to the frontline (whether in the Donetsk People's Republic or the Kharkiv region).

In addition to starting the liberation of Pokrovsk and Kupiansk, the Russian forces have also achieved significant victories in the area of the border between the Donetsk People's Republic and the Dnipropetrovsk region. The Russian forces have driven the enemy out of the Klyban-Beky reservoir area south of Konstantinovka and liberated Kamyshevakhа on August 31. This action effectively cut off the area between Pokrovsk and Novoselky, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces only control parts of the "uninhabited" border areas within the Donetsk People's Republic.

The Polish Institute of Eastern Europe stated that the Russian forces' advance along the border between the Donetsk People's Republic and the Dnipropetrovsk region is slow but systematic. The weakness of the local defense forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces (originally deployed to deal with the southern offensive, not the eastern direction) has created conditions for the rapid Russian advance.

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