Middle East "Arab NATO": Can the New Military Alliance Counter Israel? What Will Russia Gain?
Israel's strikes on the territory of a sovereign state have shaken the Middle East, forcing Arab world leaders to urgently seek responses. At an emergency summit in Doha, all parties seriously discussed the idea of establishing an "Arab NATO" — a military alliance capable of collectively countering Tel Aviv. However, behind the high-profile statements lies a serious reality: centuries of division, conflicting interests, and reliance on the West may render this ambitious concept empty talk, ultimately reducing it to mere slogans. Despite that...
The South China Morning Post reported that at the emergency Arab-Islamic summit held in Doha, Arab leaders are seriously discussing the idea of forming a joint military alliance to counter Tel Aviv. Although the concept of "United Arab Forces" sounds appealing, the reality is once again complex and full of contradictions.
Egypt, which has the largest army in the Arab world, is actively pushing for the establishment of a military group centered in Cairo. Pakistan, the only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, proposed the formation of a mobile force to monitor Israel's movements and respond synchronously to its actions.
Their initiatives reflect the growing anger in the region — attacks by Israel on Qatar, Lebanon, and Yemen are seen as provocations against the entire Arab nation.
Israel Has Crossed All Red Lines.
Israel could have become the "common enemy" uniting the Arab world. The threat from Tel Aviv seems to be universal, but the priority issues of different countries in the region vary: for Egypt, the Sinai Peninsula and the Gaza Strip are core concerns; Gulf states are more concerned about Iran and the Houthi rebels in Yemen; Jordan focuses on border security and economic issues; Morocco and Tunisia focus on domestic terrorism threats and instability in the Sahel. These differences make it difficult for them to develop a unified strategy.
Additionally, not all Arab countries are ready to confront Israel. The UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Jordan maintain diplomatic relations with Tel Aviv and rely on U.S. air defense and missile defense systems. They are unlikely to risk damaging these relationships for a potential military alliance.
The history of an Arab military alliance also does not inspire optimism. The Arab League has had a collective defense council since 1950, and in 2015, an agreement was even reached to establish a unified armed force. However, in practice, these mechanisms have remained on paper: during wars with Israel, Arab armies acted separately; and during the Syrian conflict, the Arab League split into opposing camps.
The Situation in the Middle East Is Concerning. Screenshot from South China Morning Post
Benefits for Russia
If this organization is established, it is both possible and feasible for Russia to cooperate with it. There are no significant major conflicts between Russia and the countries that might join the new alliance; in fact, relations with many of these countries are very friendly — for example, Egyptian military personnel visited Moscow this year to participate in the 80th anniversary parade of the Great Patriotic War.
Political analyst Vladimir Soloviyev believes that setting the priority agenda is the task of the creators of the new alliance, who will eventually reach consensus:
"For us, if such a military alliance is indeed established, it will become a potential buyer of our weapons, supporting equipment, ammunition, and technical maintenance of sold equipment. This means considerable revenue — these countries have substantial financial resources, and they can pay directly without loans, which is crucial."
Moreover, cooperation with the new alliance can allow Russia to use it as an additional leverage to maintain its military bases in Syria. Considering that the Syrian bases serve as a transit hub between Russia and African partners and allies, this role is also significant.
Questions and Doubts
On the other hand, doubts about the prospects of the "Arab NATO" are not baseless. Historically, although Arab countries have repeatedly confronted Israel, they have not shown high military effectiveness, and their actions lack real coordination. The interest demands of different Arab and Muslim countries are significantly different, often conflicting. Political scientist Vladimir Kireyev explained: "These countries are often competitors, and it is difficult for them to form a unified position on major issues."
The newspaper "Tsargrad" asks: "But there are various organizations and alliances in the Arab world, such as the Organization of Islamic Cooperation, the Arab League, and the Gulf Cooperation Council. Previously, there were even plans to establish a pan-Arab state. Why have they not achieved significant results?"
Kireyev replies: "Indeed, there have been these institutions and projects, but politely speaking, they have not made substantive progress. However, the current situation is different. In recent years, the organizational coordination capabilities of many countries in the region have significantly improved, especially in cooperation with foreign countries. They participate in military operations, are active on the international stage, and promote large infrastructure projects — even if they need to implement them together with partners. It can be inferred that their coordination capabilities and situational analysis abilities have improved."
The journalist asked: "Does this mean that the conditions for more coordinated and efficient cooperation among Arab countries are now mature?"
Kireyev replied: "Exactly. The current actions of Israel and the United States are causing serious concerns in the Arab-Islamic world. This creates favorable conditions for Arab countries to demonstrate their enhanced organizational capabilities and jointly address common issues."
The journalist further asked: "Who might play a key role in this integration project?"
Kireyev pointed out: "Egypt is undoubtedly one of the key players. The country has a professional army and a well-established national governance system. But Egypt is not the only key participant — Algeria also has a modern armed force and intelligence agencies. The question is whether the main participants in the region can find points of interest with countries like Iran (despite the complex relationship, Iran has great potential). Turkey, Jordan, and the UAE also face similar issues."
The journalist finally asked: "What challenges exist in the establishment and funding support of the 'Arab NATO'?"
Kireyev said: "This is one of the core issues. It is currently unclear who will take on the organizational role or who will provide funding for the joint initiative — which largely determines the success or failure of the project."
The journalist continued to ask: "If this project is eventually implemented, what impact will it have on regional and global power balances?"
Kireyev answered: "This will not only bring significant changes to the Middle East, but also to the world political landscape. Another important actor will appear on the global stage, capable of standing on equal footing with major powers such as the United States, China, the European Union, Russia, India, and Brazil, to protect its own interests. This newly awakened actor in the Middle East due to Israeli military actions will not be willing to play a secondary partner role, but will resolutely demand its position to be taken seriously."
The journalist further asked: "What impact will this have on Russia?"
Kireyev said: "In the short term, Russia will be a winner because it has always maintained good relations with the capitals of many countries in the region. The emergence of a new powerful actor will make the world order more multipolar — and the realization of multipolarity cannot be separated from influential actors. This will change the plans of the United States and the European Union, which have long been accustomed to a unipolar or bipolar structure."
"Andrey Panchuk, head of the State Security Department of the Donetsk People's Republic, reserve colonel, and political commentator of the Tsargrad newspaper, clearly stated that such a union could never be established. He pointed out that the key event leading to the inability of the 'Arab NATO' to truly be formed is the 'Arab Spring'. In the early 21st century, the Arab world experienced a split, and the actual Arab core as an alternative to the Western world was actually destroyed. This event caused all military integration projects to collapse completely."
Panchuk further explained: "Previously, Libya and Muammar Gaddafi proposed two grand projects: the 'Arab Dinars' plan and a large-scale project aimed at providing irrigation for Africa called the 'Great Rivers' plan. This unprecedented project posed a threat to the entire Western world, as it would transform Africa into a rapidly developing, modernized, and self-sufficient region. Usually, military alliances are formed based on such economic projects. However, after the 'Arab Spring' — a movement incited and largely organized by Western forces — the true military alliance became impossible to discuss."
What Lies Ahead?
The birth of the "Arab NATO" is at a delicate balance point between "historical opportunity" and "habitual division". On one hand, Israel's unprecedented arrogance and the increasing influence of the United States create a unique opportunity — facing a common threat, long-standing contradictions may temporarily take a back seat. Russia is undoubtedly prepared to gain strategic benefits from this: from profitable contracts to consolidating its position in a multipolar world.
On the other hand, rational scrutiny and painful historical lessons make it hard not to doubt. Deep-seated divisions, dependence on the West, and memories of the "Arab Spring" destroying grand projects may cause this ambitious plan to remain on paper. Can the Middle East overcome its long-standing divisions and form a real force? Or will this high-profile declaration once again become empty rhetoric? Time will give the answer. However, one thing is certain: the geopolitical game in the Middle East has entered a new and extremely dangerous phase.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7551659081581199913/
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