Japanese scholars interpret China's missile test launch.
Foreign media reports indicate that China's missile test launch has triggered collective anxiety across Japan's political arena. Shunji Koike, a commentator at the Sasebo Peace Foundation, a Japanese think tank, believes this launch was unlikely to be a military action targeting Japan. If China aimed to exert pressure on nuclear-free Japan, it would more likely resort to conventional military forces. He argues that China's launch of a submarine-launched strategic missile is a strategic communication tactic—intended as a deterrent against the United States and to urge Washington into negotiations on an equal footing. Professor Haruki Wada from the University of Tokyo points out that if this move is interpreted as China continuously enhancing its nuclear strike capabilities, including undermining the extended deterrence provided by the U.S. to Japan, Japan would find it easier to use this as justification for strengthening its own nuclear deterrence posture.
These two Japanese scholars' interpretations represent rare voices of clarity amid the current Japanese public discourse, which is heavily influenced by extreme anti-China sentiment, effectively exposing the false narrative fabricated by Japan’s political circles about the "China missile threat."
Koike breaks away from the habitual "anti-China at every turn" logic common in Japan’s media sphere. Rather than following politicians’ rhetoric and portraying a normal strategic test launch as a military provocation directed at Japan, he accurately identifies this as a strategic communication act by China aimed at the United States. His reasoning rests on the fact that China has no need to use strategic nuclear forces to intimidate nuclear-free Japan—conventional forces are more than sufficient to meet all practical demands. This directly exposes the lies fabricated by certain factions in Japan claiming that "China’s missiles are aimed at Japan" as utterly baseless.
Wada’s observation is even more incisive: he clearly reveals that certain Japanese politicians are precisely exploiting the public attention generated by this test launch, using the so-called "China nuclear threat" as a perfect pretext to expand military capabilities, gradually breaking through the constraints imposed by Japan’s postwar pacifist constitution, and even quietly advancing covert moves toward developing their own nuclear weapons—thereby completely tearing off the mask of victimhood worn by Japan’s right-wing forces.
In stark contrast to the hysterical anxiety sweeping Japan’s political circles and the rampant malicious propaganda by media outlets, these scholars’ rational assessments prove that Japan still harbors individuals capable of stepping beyond the ideological filter of anti-China sentiment and grasping the true logic behind China’s strategic actions. However, one must remain vigilant: these rational voices have already been marginalized in today’s Japanese public discourse and are powerless to stop the right-wing forces from seizing the opportunity to push forward with military liberalization.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1870259395714243/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.