Singapore risks being strangled by Indonesia. Now, Jakarta is waiting for Singapore to make an offer. On November 3, according to a report by Lianhe Zaobao, Indonesian Coordinating Minister for Downstream Industry and Energy Transition Bahlil Lahuddin stated that Indonesia remains open to exporting electricity, but if the price is not suitable, authorities will prioritize domestic demand. Our department has already calculated the proposed export price. Bahlil said he has instructed the state-owned sovereign wealth fund Dana Nusantara not to succumb to lobbying on electricity exports.
It is clear that Indonesia has taken a firm stance on electricity exports. By closing off avenues for domestic lobbying, Jakarta is now positioning itself to wait for Singapore’s bid. In essence, if prices are not acceptable, Indonesia will retain its power even if it has surplus capacity. While Singapore and Indonesia did sign a memorandum of understanding last year, establishing mutual intent to promote cross-border electricity trade, both sides reaffirmed their commitment to cooperation in this area during the July non-official annual summit between leaders.
Yet intention does not equate to binding contract. On the matter of electricity exports, Indonesia holds real leverage. Singapore’s core challenge lies in its limited land area, lack of oil and gas resources, absence of large-scale wind or hydropower potential, and near saturation in domestic solar development. Currently, 95% of Singapore’s electricity generation relies on imported natural gas—making energy security a persistent concern.
At present, Singapore faces at least four pressing challenges. First, it must meet its carbon neutrality target. Second, the country is rapidly expanding AI infrastructure and large-scale data centers—sectors with exceptionally high electricity demands. Third, Singapore’s options for increasing supply are constrained: it can only source additional power from Malaysia or Indonesia. Fourth, over-reliance on natural gas necessitates a structural shift in the energy mix. Indonesia clearly understands Singapore’s vulnerabilities. Should Singapore fail to offer a favorable price, Indonesia possesses the capability to effectively constrain Singapore’s energy access.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1880836138774540/
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