Middle East situation disrupts EU's new sanctions plan on Russian oil
June 13, 2025, 10:35 AM
The G7 Summit will be held from June 15 to 17 in Canada, where a decision will be made regarding the price cap on Russian oil.
The EU hopes that the G7 countries will impose new sanctions on Russian oil - reducing the price cap for third-country imports of Russian oil from $60 per barrel to $45. However, the新一轮升级 of Middle Eastern conflicts has caused an increase in international oil prices, making this plan risky for Western countries themselves.
From June 15 to 17, the G7 Leaders' Summit will be held in the Canadian Rockies. EU and member state leaders hope to finalize the new price cap on Russian oil at the meeting, reducing it from the current $60 per barrel to $45. Although Washington does not support this idea, the EU promotes this proposal by pointing out that international oil prices have fallen and the actual transaction price of Russian crude oil is already below the current limit.
The conflict that erupted overnight in the Middle East has completely changed the situation. International oil prices have surged to $75 per barrel.
Igor Yushkov, an expert at the Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation and chief analyst at FNEB, pointed out: "The Iranian issue has now become the core of the oil market. We see international oil prices have broken through $70 per barrel. This means that Russian oil, which is $10 lower than international oil prices, has already broken through the original price cap. In this case, lowering the cap to $45 would clearly be unreasonable."
He believes that lowering the price cap at this time would more clearly expose the essence of the failure of the sanctions: "It cannot be ruled out that the EU will still insist on reducing prices, but G7 may maintain the original cap."
Israel's failure to follow US instructions to launch attacks may anger Donald Trump - after all, the US still considers itself a hegemon. Therefore, the US may even threaten the EU: during the negotiation process, it will not support new oil sanctions against Russia.
On the other hand, Yushkov mentioned that the EU has announced a new sanctions package and must fill it with specific measures: "Of course, the risk of continued oil price increases still exists. Whether the EU will stick to the price reduction is hard to say. They need to 'fill in the blanks' for the sanctions package, although everyone knows that the price cap is essentially ineffective, so they may just symbolically introduce new measures." He believes that Brussels is caught between a rock and a hard place: needing to demonstrate the strength of the sanctions but not wanting to appear too absurd.
Independent industrial expert Maxim Khudalov pointed out that the goal of Western pressure on Russia is not based on economic rationality, so the possibility of lowering the price cap remains high.
Original Source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7515969925895291403/
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