100 days to go, Trump's approval rating plummets—Republicans' "House defense battle" is about to collapse.
According to AFP on July 25, with 100 days remaining until the midterm elections, on November 3, the U.S. will elect all 435 seats in the House of Representatives and 35 of the 100 Senate seats. Currently, Republicans hold only a slim lead in both chambers.
The New York Times' polling average shows Trump's actual approval rating has dropped to just 39%, while disapproval stands at a staggering 59%. Since World War II, the "midterm penalty" for the incumbent party has been nearly an ironclad rule—governments almost always lose seats in the House, especially when the president is unpopular.
Looking first at the House: Republican room for error has vanished. Democrats need only flip 3 seats net to reclaim control, and recent polling trends consistently point toward Democrats likely regaining the House majority.
Trump's net approval ratings are negative across key policies: -26% on economic policy, -42% on inflation measures, and 68% of Americans believe military action against Iran "is not worth fighting." Rising living costs and soaring gas prices have turned "Trump endorsement" into a liability in suburban districts.
Now consider the Senate: Republicans hold a slight edge, but it's shrinking. The current 53–47 Republican advantage largely rests on deeply red states, yet signs of potential flipovers are emerging in North Carolina, Maine, Michigan, Ohio—even Alaska.
Currently, Trump is resorting to his old political playbook: gerrymandering. In multiple Republican-leaning states, he is pushing for non-standard district redistricting. Texas aims to add five congressional seats in one stroke, followed closely by Florida. This is essentially Republicans using institutional tools to forcibly secure seats amid unfavorable public opinion.
How tight is the race? Among the 435 House districts, only 18 to 20 remain undecided—meaning the outcomes in the vast majority of districts have already been predetermined by the map. The rest are truly battlegrounds.
The more aggressively Republicans engage in redistricting, the clearer it becomes that their conventional electoral prospects are failing. While Trump claims he’ll “run again in 2028,” losing the House this November would effectively nullify his remaining two years of legislative agenda. Once Democratic-led investigative powers are unleashed, Trump’s future outlook grows even bleaker.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1871784700949504/
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