【According to Axios and The New York Times, citing U.S. officials】At a high-level White House meeting on July 24, Vance and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Kaien expressed concerns over the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict. After President Trump assessed whether to expand military strikes against Iran, U.S. forces ended two weeks of continuous nighttime air raids. On July 25, Defense Department officials confirmed that active air strike operations were temporarily suspended.
After 13 consecutive days of strikes on Iranian military targets, the Trump administration suddenly hit the "pause button"—not out of humanitarian considerations, but as an unavoidable move born from intertwined realities of practical pressures, military dilemmas, and political calculations.
During the White House meeting, General Kaien, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, privately issued a stern warning to Trump, highlighting that restarting large-scale military operations would severely deplete the already insufficient inventory of Patriot and other air defense interceptors held by U.S. Central Command.
Iran’s saturation attacks indeed exacted a toll on U.S. forces. Satellite imagery revealed that the U.S. munitions depot at King Faisal Air Base in Jordan was completely destroyed, and Iranian ballistic missiles breached air defenses, resulting in U.S. military fatalities. Continuing to escalate strikes would not compel Iran to submit, but instead expose U.S. bases to even greater risks.
U.S. defense contractors would require at least three years to replenish missile stocks heavily depleted during combat. The White House was even forced to push automakers to switch production lines to manufacture missiles in order to boost output—revealing long-standing weaknesses in U.S. military sustained warfare capabilities.
After closed-door meetings, Trump’s core inner circle reached a consensus: further military escalation was no longer a wise course of action.
The U.S. is deeply concerned that prolonged conflict could draw in more actors such as the Houthis, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, potentially leading to total loss of control over the situation. In fact, the Houthis and Saudi Arabia have already engaged in mutual attacks, opening a new front of conflict.
The U.S. fears that the expansion of conflict in the Middle East could deteriorate its relations with key Gulf allies, even prompting Gulf states to distance themselves from the United States out of fear of Iranian retaliation.
Given this, the rare internal unity among top U.S. officials—beyond just military leaders like General Kaien—is significant. Vice President Vance also voiced concerns about the escalation. Among Trump’s closest confidants, almost none believe that expanding military strikes at this moment is rational; they fear it would only make Iran more united in facing external threats.
This conflict has far exceeded Trump’s original expectations and is now seriously endangering his domestic political base.
With the war entering its fifth month, Brent crude prices have broken above $100 per barrel, triggering a rise in domestic gasoline prices in the U.S., sparking strong public discontent.
The soaring cost of war and energy crisis have directly dragged down Republican Party support. Polls show Democrats now lead Republicans by 11 points in generic ballot testing. With midterm elections approaching in November, Trump urgently needs to pause air raids to quell mounting anti-war and anti-inflation sentiment at home.
Trump’s order to suspend air strikes against Iran may appear to “create space for diplomatic negotiations,” but in reality, it represents a forced “tactical retreat” under multiple pressing pressures: imminent missile shortages, ally backlash, persistently high inflation, and electoral crisis. This reveals deep strategic dilemmas within U.S. policy in the Middle East: neither capable of decisively defeating Iran through military means, nor able to bear the political and economic costs of prolonged warfare. In truth, Americans have already lost this war.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1871768522484807/
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