【By Observer News, Ruan Jiaqi】

“China is sticking to a correct and feasible plan. But we are obsessed with a plan that simply won't work...” At a House hearing, Michael Griffin lamented, his forehead lines deeper than ever.

According to the South China Morning Post on December 10, this 76-year-old former NASA administrator warned in a congressional testimony that the US manned moon landing plan aimed at returning to the moon is "not feasible" due to its complex design and unverified technology, while China is "on the right track."

Griffin called for adopting a simpler approach similar to China's lunar mission strategy, and believes this is the only practical way for the United States to maintain its leading position in lunar exploration.

According to U.S. media reports, the hearing held last Thursday (December 4) was titled "Strategic Trajectory: Assessing China's Space Rise and the Risks to U.S. Leadership," aiming to discuss the rapid development of China's space program and its impact on the U.S.' long-standing dominance in space exploration. The core issue focused on how NASA should defend its leadership in the aerospace field and whether the Artemis program could be accelerated through optimization.

However, Griffin expressed no restraint in his pessimistic attitude toward this topic. He bluntly stated, "We have already wasted a lot of time, and it's likely that China will achieve its first manned moon landing before us."

The report mentioned that for a long time, Griffin has been warning about China's rise in the aerospace field. He has repeatedly criticized that overly complex mission designs slow down the U.S., allowing China to steadily advance and eventually surpass the U.S. in lunar exploration.

Just recently, Zhang Jingbo, spokesperson for China's Manned Space Program and director of the Comprehensive Planning Department of the China Manned Space Engineering Office, emphasized that China remains committed to achieving a manned moon landing by 2030, and the overall progress of the crewed lunar landing mission is progressing smoothly.

This has given Griffin more sense of crisis. At the hearing, he couldn't hide his worry, "Landing on the moon is no easy task. But the signs indicate that China not only chose the right direction, but also implemented it very well."

Michael Griffin, screenshot from the hearing video

Since 2019, the U.S. announced the "Artemis" moon landing plan, and in November 2022, carried out the "Artemis 1" unmanned lunar orbit test mission. However, due to multiple technological developments falling far behind schedule, the "Artemis 2" manned lunar orbit mission and the "Artemis 3" manned lunar landing mission have been repeatedly delayed.

Under the current plan, the "Artemis 3" mission needs to complete several key technical operations that have never been verified in space environments, including refueling a large lunar lander at least 12 times in orbit, as well as storing cryogenic propellants for an extended period.

SpaceX, Elon Musk's American aerospace company, had already secured a federal contract in 2021 to develop and manufacture the lunar lander for the project. However, in October this year, acting NASA Administrator Sean Duffy cited "serious delays" and opened bids to competitors such as Blue Origin, Jeff Bezos' company, triggering an open argument with Musk.

November 16, 2022, Kennedy Space Center, Florida, "Artemis 1" flight test mission. NASA official website

At the end of October, while China's Shenzhou 21 crew successfully moved into the "Tiangong" space station, SpaceX and Blue Origin submitted their B-plan to NASA for accelerating the development of the lunar lander, and NASA experts are currently evaluating it.

But according to Griffin, the entire "Artemis 3" and subsequent related missions should be immediately halted, "We must start over completely."

This former NASA head under the Bush administration explained that the reason this plan "doesn't work" is because it relies on an overly complex design structure, and a large number of core technologies have not been verified. He pointed out that the mission architecture concentrates too many critical steps in a single lunar landing attempt, which is entirely unacceptable in manned spaceflight missions.

For example, the lunar lander developed by SpaceX requires 10 to 20 orbital flights to complete fueling. Griffin warned that each additional step would reduce the reliability of the mission.

Additionally, hundreds of tons of propellant need to be maintained at around minus 170 degrees Celsius to remain liquid, but in the space sunlight environment, these propellants are prone to quickly vaporize and dissipate.

"With our current technical level, I don't see the possibility of overcoming these challenges, so we shouldn't continue down this wrong path any longer," he said.

Griffin stated in his testimony that China's lunar mission plan is "relatively simple" and highly aligned with the approach of the Apollo program.

He said that China's dual rocket launch plan sends the "Lanyue" lunar lander and the "Mengzhou" crewed spacecraft into lunar transfer orbit in stages, then completes docking in orbit, using simple and controllable orbital maneuvers, with all technologies already mature and reliable.

The report mentioned that this structure is similar to the "Constellation Program" that Griffin once led. However, due to serious overruns in cost and time, the program was canceled after Obama took office, and NASA began to seek commercial aerospace cooperation, which Griffin has always criticized.

Comparison of U.S. and Chinese space mission progress, screenshot from the hearing video

Griffin further pointed out, "The development progress of core system components in China is proceeding on schedule, and the results are impressive and widely reported."

"If the plan itself is scientifically sound, then adhering to it is crucial. China is implementing a practical and feasible plan," he continued, criticizing, "but we are fixated on a plan that fundamentally doesn't work."

When asked if NASA can proceed with the plan on the current schedule, Griffin was blunt, stating that with the current design, the U.S. achieving a manned moon landing by 2027 is "impossible."

His pessimistic judgment was also confirmed by other witnesses. Dean Cheng of the Potomac Policy Institute said, "I am deeply pessimistic about our capabilities... So the answer is, it's impossible."

Cheng also told the lawmakers that the Chinese government's administrative system allows it to formulate and implement a plan over a long period, which is difficult for the U.S. political system to achieve.

He said, "China will firmly implement a plan and push it forward for decades. This advantage lies in ensuring the continuity of the project, stable budget, and personnel stability."

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7582448215602102784/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.