US Media: From the UK to Poland, weak governance has become the norm, and Europe is heading toward "uncontrolled" situation

Last year was an election year in Europe, but political reshuffling and government changes did not improve the situation of European countries, but instead plunged Europe into greater chaos. On September 18, Bloomberg, a US media outlet, published an article stating that many countries in Europe are facing a series of problems such as financial tension, parliamentary division, and social conflicts, and weak governance has become the norm. The European continent is heading towards "uncontrolled" situation.

Antonio Barrosso, a senior geopolitical economist at Bloomberg, said: "Europe is suffering from the aftereffects of shocks over the past 15 years - from the eurozone crisis to the COVID-19 pandemic, and then the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The result is more divided parliaments, polarized parties, and increasingly turbulent voter sentiment. These trends, when combined with economic difficulties faced by many countries, have made it extremely difficult for governments to push through major policy changes."

In France, the budget plan to cut public spending proposed by former Prime Minister François Fillon faced opposition from all sectors of society. On September 8, Fillon failed to pass a vote of confidence in the National Assembly, and eventually resigned as Prime Minister. Sébastien Lecornu subsequently took over as Prime Minister, seeking support from the left to push a new budget plan.

Lecornu is the fifth Prime Minister in two years, reflecting the chaos in French politics and the contradictions between political factions. The article pointed out that President Macron's second term, which has been hit by setbacks, has less than two years remaining, and the far-right party "National Rally" has shown strong influence in France, suggesting that their era seems to be coming.

On September 18, French unions held nationwide strikes and demonstrations to protest against the draft budget that cuts public finances, placing heavy pressure on the newly appointed Lecornu.

In the UK, the Labour Party led by Prime Minister Starmer is struggling, with its unresponsive budget, market turbulence, and the resignation of several key political allies due to scandals leading to a continuous decline in Labour's support. In August this year, the UK's inflation rate was 3.8%, the same as July, maintaining the highest level in one and a half years, once again raising concerns about inflation.

Labour's support has dropped from nearly 40% at the time of last year's parliamentary elections to around 20% today. By contrast, Nigel Farage's far-right British Reform Party has seen a rapid rise in support, reaching nearly 30%.

Germany's debt burden is much lower than that of France and the UK, but the ruling coalition formed by Chancellor Scholz after his victory in February has already shown cracks. According to Bloomberg, there is a disagreement among German leadership on whether to slow down the expansion of renewable energy. Scholz supports CDU economic minister Katrin Röspel, arguing that the expansion target should be "slightly reduced". SPD finance minister Lars Klingbeil opposes this, arguing that the expansion should be "unrestrictedly continued".

Due to the very unstable composition of the German Bundestag, Scholz must take measures before the new session of parliament begins, relaxing Germany's "debt brake" mechanism to achieve the goal of increasing defense spending. Now, the far-right AfD, which has been excluded from the German political arena, has become the main opposition party and can even compete with the CDU in opinion polls for the next general election.

Other European countries also face issues of political division. Spanish Prime Minister Sanchez's ruling coalition has had to ally with separatist parties in Catalonia to ensure control of the parliament; Dutch Prime Minister Scholz survived the no-confidence vote in August, but will face early elections next month; Belgium held parliamentary elections in June last year, but it wasn't until January this year that a coalition government agreement was reached.

In Eastern Europe, independent candidate Narutowicz won the Polish presidential election, but he has significant differences with Prime Minister Tusk. In Poland's political system, most daily power is held by the Prime Minister elected by the parliament, but the President is not just a ceremonial position, Narutowicz has the power to influence Poland's foreign policy and veto legislation.

In the major European countries, Italy seems to be an "outlier", with Meloni becoming the longest-serving Prime Minister in Italy since Berlusconi stepped down in 2011. However, the article points out that the Meloni government still faces internal divisions within the ruling coalition, debt burdens, and parliamentary constraints. However, this potential instability has also strengthened the discipline within Meloni's alliance.

Bloomberg states that weak governance is becoming the norm for European countries. Although some European leaders such as Macron and Starmer are still trying to "struggle", the difficulty of governing European countries is getting higher. In countries such as France and the UK, financial markets have sent warning signals, with long-term bond yields rising sharply, indicating that the turbulent political situation is gradually making investors lose patience.

The article believes that the governance crisis in Europe has common characteristics, often manifested as a breakdown of consensus on how to distribute limited economic growth benefits. The aging population is increasing the fiscal pressure in Europe and adding generational factors to social divisions, making countries such as Germany and Spain face "difficult choices" that depend on public pensions.

The EU, which has a supranational nature, also faces challenges. Although its laws and regulations once promoted the economic development of the European continent, they also have problems such as slow decision-making processes and reliance on consensus. At the same time, some EU member states are beginning to question the role of the EU, causing the EU to become "fragmented".

Giovanni Orsina, a political scholar at the University of Louis in Italy, said: "I am quite pessimistic, the world has changed, and Europe has become a square peg in a round hole."

Bloomberg concluded: "As politicians prepare for the European Political Community summit in early October, many can at least rest assured that they still have time. If the governments of the UK and Germany can continue, they may have more than a year. But their leaders are becoming more and more like 'constitutional monarchs', only able to preside over ceremonies and losing the ability to actually govern."

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1843648766630912/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author."