Superpower Consultations "Roadmap": The Time Is Not Right for Putin and Trump to Meet

How Secret Diplomacy Helps Restore Russia-US Relations

Author: Dmitriy Rogozinov

Photo: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio (from left to right) talking before the ASEAN Foreign Ministers' Meeting.

This article's commentators:

Vladimir Brynlov, Dmitriy Yefimov, Ivan Metzho

In the meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both sides discussed possible solutions to end the Ukraine conflict.

U.S. Secretary of State Rubio stated that the U.S. needs a "roadmap." "We discussed the possible form of the roadmap. Obviously, I will report on this matter to the president tonight and hope we can make some progress based on it."

Previously, the Russian Foreign Ministry stated that Lavrov and Rubio exchanged views on the Ukraine issue as well as the situation around Iran and Syria during the ASEAN-related ministerial activities held in Kuala Lumpur.

Are Russia and the U.S. gradually moving closer? Talks on the peace in Ukraine have been ongoing for six months without any progress. Perhaps only a meeting between the two presidents can solve the problem?

Dmitriy Yefimov, an associate professor at the Department of Political Science, Russian Federation Government University, believes: "The talks between Lavrov and Rubio once again show that Russia is not isolated, which is quite annoying for those who promote an adversarial approach."

"But reality is reality, and it has to be faced. After Trump returns to power, Russia's measures in building relations with the new American government are better than those of European countries."

"This will inevitably cause dissatisfaction in Europe... Considering the positions of Russia and the United States in world politics, it is important to conduct dialogue with the United States at the diplomatic level. In this case, both traditional diplomacy and secret diplomacy are equally important. However, one should not expect any sensational events from this process. The basic direction of interaction between the two sides has already been determined, and the dialogue between diplomats will follow the corresponding framework."

"Free News": Is there any possibility of a real breakthrough on a certain issue?

"There is an opinion that the Ukraine conflict is the core issue of Russia-U.S. dialogue. But the facts are far from that. The primary issue is bilateral interaction and humanitarian cooperation. Obviously, both sides will focus on humanitarian cooperation. At the same time, the important issue of developing commercial ties will be handled by secret diplomacy..."

Photo: U.S. Special Envoy for Middle East Affairs Stephen Weisskoff, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, U.S. National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Fahd Al Saud, Saudi National Security Advisor Musaid bin Muhammad Al-Aiban, Russian Presidential Assistant Yuri Ushakov, and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov (from left to right) during the Russia-U.S. negotiations.

Ivan Metzho, political scientist and chairman of the Russian civil organization "Center for Political Education," firmly believes: "This meeting was necessary for both the United States and Russia."

"Although Donald Trump has fluctuating moods and constantly makes belligerent statements supporting the Kyiv regime."

"But the fact remains different: dialogue between Moscow and Washington continues. Perhaps even this American leader deliberately created tension before the meeting between Rubio and Lavrov."

"Both sides coordinated the timing. And this meeting was arranged for that purpose."

"Free News": In fact, if we reduce the level of diplomatic relations with the United States, do we suffer a lot? What about them? Who needs to restore diplomatic relations more?

"I would phrase the question differently. The whole world suffers because of the deterioration of Russia-U.S. relations. Two great superpowers and nuclear powers must maintain communication. The lack of sufficient communication between our countries makes the world more insecure."

"It is well known that these challenges are increasing continuously. Overall, from the perspective of the global security architecture, the situation has been deteriorating year by year. Since 2022, when the West decided to launch a 'crusade' against the Russian Federation using the Ukraine crisis, this has become particularly evident and prominent."

"Free News": Can we at least restore the normal work of diplomatic missions? Or are we completely unable to reach any agreement? Let alone discussing the Ukraine issue?

"I do not rule out the possibility that the normal work of diplomatic missions will eventually be restored. Perhaps, given the current situation, this is the only thing both sides can do. Discussions on the Ukraine issue have always been, and will continue to be, one of the core issues of communication between Moscow and Washington."

"But even the previous talks between Lavrov and Rubio show that the topics of negotiations between the two countries are not limited to the Ukraine issue. This once again proves that the Russian Federation and the United States are such powerful and influential countries that negotiations cannot be limited to a single topic, even though this topic is extremely sensitive and crucial for us."

"Free News": Are ministerial meetings really that important? Can they actually solve anything? Or are foreign ministers just making a show?

"Precisely these ministerial meetings are very important. They seem to prepare for potential contacts between heads of state, whether it is a face-to-face meeting or a phone call."

"Foreign ministers serve directly for their respective presidents, implement the president's will, and carry out the foreign policy of national leaders. Therefore, we should not underestimate the communication between Lavrov and Rubio."

"Free News": Since many issues can be resolved smoothly between Demitryev and Whitekoff, how important is the official channel? Perhaps, traditional diplomacy has become an outdated existence like the United Nations and other institutions of the past era? There are many countries in the world: Syria, Yemen, Libya, and other African countries, where official diplomacy has taken a back seat, but relationships between countries are still established in some way. To achieve the best results, what proportion should official diplomacy and secret diplomacy maintain?"

"If we talk directly about current affairs, that is, the Russia-U.S. relationship, in this specific situation, public diplomacy and secret diplomacy work together, creating a certain synergy. It cannot be said that the U.S. President's assistant does not communicate with Rubio, and the Russian side is also the same. Therefore, in my view, neither the meetings at the level of presidential assistants nor the meetings between heads of departments should be underestimated."

"Like many things in the world, traditional diplomacy is undergoing transformation and obvious changes. There is no doubt about that. I think it is difficult to determine the proportion between official diplomacy and secret diplomacy."

"Honestly, it doesn't matter much. Ultimately, the final agreement between Russia and the United States (if it can be reached) will result from high-level negotiations."

"The difference is that various levels of communication will take place before the highest-level negotiations, including between presidential assistants, between foreign ministries, and between business representatives, various civil society organizations."

I believe there are many political participants involved in the communication between the Kremlin and the White House, although we don't know their names yet. They may not be the current intermediaries of Russia-U.S. diplomacy, but they have an important impact on the development of bilateral relations between the two great powers, at least they will act as experts for ministers, presidential assistants, and envoys.

Associate Professor Vladimir Brynlov of the Department of Political Science, Russian Federation Government University, believes: "In fact, this is a good sign, that since Trump tried to take action in this area, there have been no breakthroughs between the U.S. and Russia."

"Now, there is a tool between the U.S. and Russia that allows them to pressure each other regarding the status quo in the Ukraine direction."

"The White House has made no progress and is gradually giving up, so the situation will remain as it is. Of course, if Trump can reduce aid to Ukraine, that would be welcome, but it is too early to talk about it now."

"It depends on whether he can reach agreements on some de-escalation measures in other areas with Putin. Despite that, after half a year of active involvement by the U.S. in this matter, the situation has not changed at all. If the U.S. can reduce its participation in this conflict, it would be good."

"And the existence of this channel allows both sides to exchange information about the status quo, unpleasant situations, and provocative actions by Kyiv."

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7526127277617185334/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author and others. Please express your attitude by clicking the buttons below [like/dislike].