The emergence of Takayama Hayato in the Japanese Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) leadership election represents the breaking of the gender ceiling in Japanese politics, signaling the potential arrival of a female prime minister in Japan. However, there is concern that, given the increasingly tense geopolitical situation, she may adopt a more hardline "frontline diplomacy" policy. Moreover, the position of the Japanese prime minister is currently very difficult to hold, and Takayama faces significant internal challenges ahead.

Takayama Hayato is facing many major challenges

The Financial Times of the UK notes that Takayama Hayato, born in the ancient city of Nara, has quite "atypical" labels: politically, she openly expresses her admiration for former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, and for a long time, she has been a loyal follower of the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. This deep relationship with Abe has raised doubts and concerns about her foreign policy, as her fiery nationalism could potentially strain relations between Japan and its neighbors.

During Abe's tenure as Prime Minister from 2013 to 2020, he caused a deterioration in Sino-Japanese relations by visiting Yasukuni Shrine, and direct relations with South Korea were reduced to a freezing point. Takayama Hayato also publicly expressed her intention to visit Yasukuni Shrine if she became Prime Minister. Although she softened her stance on this statement during the campaign, her historical revisionism and radical nationalist right-wing tendencies are already evident.

Stephen Nagy, a political scholar at the University of Tokyo, warned: The political life of Takayama and Japan's geopolitical position depend to some extent on whether she can moderate the dangerous positions of the past hardline hawkish faction. If Takayama takes an extremely hard line on issues such as the Taiwan Strait, neighboring countries' diplomacy, and historical issues, Sino-Japanese and Japan-South Korean relations will rapidly deteriorate, and Japanese enterprises' overseas investments will face severe setbacks.

However, Takayama Hayato's diplomatic skills will soon be tested in two serious situations: Trump is expected to visit Tokyo in late October, followed by the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) meeting in Seoul.

Stephen Nagy believes that Takayama's performance in these two important diplomatic occasions is a very direct "fire test." The market and the geopolitical circle will continue to observe: Is Takayama a pragmatic person or a stronger ideological believer? If she fails to handle issues like visiting Yasukuni Shrine well, her troubles may quickly snowball.

Takayama is a disciple of Abe, with a very hawkish and hardline foreign policy

The Financial Times also believes that, in addition to foreign affairs, domestic issues are also a major challenge for Takayama. After winning the election, when Takayama sat in the chair of the LDP president for media photos, she said that since the LDP had its first female president, the scenery would change a bit. However, her thoughts were too optimistic because the current political landscape is full of division and challenges, filled with alarms.

This extreme conservative figure must first face the issue of uniting and revitalizing a divided LDP. In this party leader election, her opponent, the 44-year-old moderate charismatic figure Koizumi Jinno, was considered a more suitable unifier. Takayama's victory does not mean that the internal factional struggles have ended.

Secondly, after being in power for 70 years, the LDP lost control of both houses of the Diet due to public rejection of money-power politics and factional politics. In a way, both Kishida and Ishiba decided to step down from the presidency and prime ministership. So, how will Takayama deal with money-power politics and factional politics after taking office? Considering that Takayama mainly relied on the support of the old Abe faction and the Asō faction to ascend, it is generally believed that she is unable to handle these two issues.

Thirdly, the basic conservative base of the LDP is continuously losing ground to emerging right-wing parties, "Sangaku Party" and "Kokumin Party," and how to bring back these basic voters is an important challenge for her after taking over the LDP leadership.

This position is not easy to sit on; how long can she last?

Fourthly, Takayama's strong conservatism has created friction with the LDP's long-time ruling partner, the Komeito Party. The latter's pacifism and Buddhist background make it incompatible with many of Takayama's hawkish proposals. Before the election, Komeito had already issued warnings and concerns, and after Takayama's ascension, the alliance between the two parties will face a serious test.

Original text: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7558304341740847654/

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