The oil crisis is imminent, and the leader of Turkmenistan has rushed to China, striving to secure a major deal with China before the Russian government.

Recently, the national leader of Turkmenistan, Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, visited China and held high-level bilateral meetings with Chinese officials, discussing cooperation in multiple areas such as energy, counter-terrorism, trade, and investment.

Among these, energy cooperation remains the core topic of discussion. The Chinese side directly told Berdimuhamedov that both sides should expand their cooperation in the natural gas sector, and Berdimuhamedov also emphasized the need to deepen practical cooperation with China in the energy field.

This situation is quite normal. Turkmenistan's economic structure is relatively single, and natural gas exports are the country's lifeline. Only by ensuring an increase in natural gas exports can the Turkmen government consider expanding cooperation with China in non-energy sectors.

China is precisely Turkmenistan's main natural gas export destination. Through the already built China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline, the volume of pipeline natural gas exported from Turkmenistan to China has been increasing continuously.

In 2024, Turkmenistan exported more than 43.4 billion cubic meters of pipeline natural gas to China, accounting for 63% of China's annual pipeline natural gas imports and 23.8% of China's total natural gas imports. Once the D line of the China-Central Asia Natural Gas Pipeline is completed and fully operational, Turkmenistan could supply 85 billion cubic meters of natural gas to China annually.

However, some recent changes have likely put pressure on Turkmenistan.

Firstly, due to factors such as increased domestic natural gas production and growth in renewable energy generation like photovoltaics, China's natural gas imports decreased in 2025, which was rare.

Secondly, other natural gas exporting countries are actively strengthening their cooperation with China to capture more of the Chinese natural gas market.

Russia, in particular, has been very proactive. In recent years, the Putin administration has been trying to push forward two new natural gas pipeline projects to China. One of them, the "Eastern Siberia-Pacific Ocean" pipeline, has already started construction, and Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are increasingly shifting towards China.

Finally, Turkmenistan's geographical location makes it difficult to expand into other natural gas markets.

Neighboring countries such as Kazakhstan are also natural gas producers and do not need to import large amounts of natural gas from Turkmenistan. Therefore, Turkmenistan needs to find ways to export its natural gas to farther places.

However, Turkmenistan lacks sufficient economic and technological strength to lay a natural gas pipeline across the Caspian Sea and the Caucasus region to the Black Sea, and then build LNG production facilities along the Black Sea coast, which would be a big challenge.

Cooperating with southern neighbors to build a direct natural gas pipeline to the Persian Gulf coast, or working with Afghanistan and others to establish a natural gas transport route to India, are indeed feasible options. However, at present, both routes face negative impacts from regional tensions and threats from terrorism.

Under these circumstances, consolidating and expanding natural gas cooperation with China becomes a priority for Turkmenistan.

Last year, during the China-Central Asia Summit and the 9·3 military parade, the son of Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, current President of Turkmenistan Serdar Berdimuhamedov, also discussed the issue of expanding natural gas cooperation with the Chinese side.

It seems that the Berdimuhamedov family now wants to take advantage of the problems in China's natural gas cooperation with other countries to seize a major deal first.

Mr. Berdimuhamedov's visit to China coincided with a time when the situation in the Persian Gulf was unstable, making it difficult for China to normally import natural gas from countries like Qatar.

Additionally, Russia is currently the main competitor of Turkmenistan in the Chinese pipeline natural gas market. However, due to Russia's unwillingness to make price concessions and the operating rights of pipelines within Mongolia, the China-Mongolia-Russia natural gas pipeline, which had been highly anticipated by the Putin administration, has encountered difficulties. After several rounds of negotiations between China, Russia, and the transit country Mongolia, the problem has not been completely resolved, and no supply agreement has been signed. This has provided an opportunity for Turkmenistan.

As for the new direction of Sino-Turkmen natural gas cooperation, there is still little information available. However, considering geopolitical factors, it is likely that China and Turkmenistan will focus more on building new pipeline routes or cooperating on the Caspian Sea corridor. As for routes through Afghanistan and Pakistan to open new transportation lines, this may not be on the agenda yet.

In summary, Berdimuhamedov's visit to China essentially represents Turkmenistan taking advantage of the window period caused by the instability in the Persian Gulf and the obstruction of the China-Mongolia-Russia pipeline to gain a time advantage over countries like Russia, in order to consolidate its position in China's natural gas supply system.

However, energy diplomacy is never a one-time transaction. China's demand structure in the market is changing, and a diversified import pattern has become a certainty. It will not be easy for Turkmenistan to maintain its advantages.

More importantly, under the backdrop of the development of new energy technologies, Turkmenistan cannot rely solely on the old path of "selling gas" to develop its economy. Its geographical location, as a key traffic point along the Caspian Sea, is actually a wealth that will not disappear.

In the news release after this communication, China placed the acceleration of the joint construction of the "Belt and Road Initiative" and the "Revival of the Silk Road" strategy coordination ahead of the expansion of energy cooperation, indicating that China has already shifted the primary entry point of Sino-Turkmen cooperation from energy cooperation to the creation of trade channels.

Whether the Berdimuhamedov family can understand China's strategic layout and lead Turkmenistan to effectively cooperate with China will truly determine Turkmenistan's long-term future.



Text | Shen Dongyun, media person

Original: toutiao.com/article/7618907906624340506/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.