[Military & Weapons Section] Author: Tianlang
After nearly 20 years of twists and turns in development, Russia's next-generation airborne early warning aircraft A-100 "Prime Minister" project seems to have reluctantly reached the end. Although Moscow has not officially confirmed the "termination" fate of the A-100 project, multiple authoritative Russian sources indicate that the A-100 project has been in a long-term suspension state and is practically defunct. This not only marks another major setback for Russia in the development of large active phased array radar early warning aircraft but also exposes from the side the "generation gap" between Russia and Western countries in terms of chips and high-end electronic components — at least 10 years behind.
▲The A-100 project is virtually defunct.
The A-100 project originally aimed to replace the A-50 series early warning aircraft that entered service during the Cold War era, hoping to catch up with the U.S. E-3G and China's KJ-2000 series by using the Il-476 platform equipped with dual-band active phased array radar systems. However, from its launch in 2004 to its first flight (without radar) in 2017 and the first radar test in 2022, spanning 18 years, it still failed to achieve mass production and deployment. Its sluggishness and difficulty are unprecedented.
The most critical bottleneck is undoubtedly the radar — more precisely, the T/R modules required for the radar system. Russia has been unable to stably produce active phased array T/R modules that meet military standards domestically, let alone products that fully meet performance, reliability, and cooling technical indicators. After the 2014 Crimea crisis and the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, the West completely cut off the supply of high-end chips and components to Russia, directly cutting off the path for Russia to "take shortcuts" to build advanced radars, leaving the A-100 as an unfinished project with a platform but no core component.
▲A-50U early warning aircraft
To date, only six A-50U upgraded early warning aircraft are still operational in the Russian Aerospace Forces. Due to two being shot down during the Russia-Ukraine conflict and one suspected to be damaged and grounded, these "old soldiers" themselves are equipped with traditional mechanical scanning radars, far behind the informatization and multi-target processing capabilities of mainstream U.S. and Chinese systems, leaving them almost no chance of success in high-intensity air combat.
In the Ukrainian battlefield, the information lag and missing early warnings in Russian ground strikes and tactical air defense have repeatedly occurred, with the root cause being the scarcity and inadequacy of early warning platforms. If the A-100 project is ultimately canceled, it means that Russia will be unable to establish a modernized air early warning command platform for at least the next decade or longer, leaving its campaign-level air defense and anti-missile system in serious blind spots. Russian defense publications such as Military Messenger pointed out when diagnosing the A-100 project that its failure essentially stems from strategic reliance on foreign technology and the disconnection in its own electronic industrial system. Not only are T/R components unproduced, but key components such as signal processors, high-speed buses, analog-to-digital converters, and low-noise amplifiers also rely on imports.
▲Prototype of the A-100 project
For a long time, Russia has had a "heavy industry mindset" in the chip sector, with self-developed production lines generally remaining at the 90-nanometer level or even 130 nanometers. By contrast, the West entered the 65-nanometer, 45-nanometer, and even below 7-nanometer era at the beginning of the 21st century. Such a technological gap means that even if Russia has design capabilities, it cannot realize the industrial integration and manufacturing of complex electronic systems — this is not only reflected in the A-100 early warning aircraft but also widely exists in high-end military equipment projects such as the Su-57 fighter and S-500 air defense system. In contrast, China's early warning aircraft technology is entering a comprehensive boom period. From the mature KJ-2000 and KJ-500 series to the upcoming batch-produced KJ-700 and KJ-3000, and even export models like the KJ-500E and higher-grade airborne radar systems, China has built a complete early warning aircraft spectrum. Not only is the technology advanced, but it is also stably produced, making China the world's second-largest early warning power, and even possibly the first in certain fields.
If Russia truly wishes to maintain the lowest threshold in strategic air defense, its only way out may be to seek help from China. Purchasing or cooperating to produce early warning aircraft as a whole from the Chinese side, or at least procuring key core components such as active phased array radar systems and T/R modules, are realistic options. Considering the financial pressure on the Russian side, if an "exchange of goods for goods" method is used, such as exchanging submarine technology or aviation engine technology for China's radar systems, there is also room for negotiation.
▲An endless line of KJ-500 early warning aircraft
In the past, the early warning aircraft system in the international arms market was monopolized by the United States and Russia. However, with Russia's stagnant technology and economic decline, as well as tightened Western arms trade barriers, China, which has autonomous development and large-scale production capabilities, is gradually filling the gap. In particular, the export model KJ-500E, with its small size, low cost, strong detection capability, and simple maintenance, has become the preferred choice for developing countries to upgrade their early warning systems. If Russia really procures relevant systems from China in the future, it will not only mean a role reversal in the arms trade pattern (from Russian dominance to Chinese dominance) but also, from public opinion and strategy, mark China's "technical surpass" over Russia in the high-end military industry sector.
The suspension of the A-100 project represents a significant setback for Russia on the path of self-reliance in strategic early warning systems and is a true reflection of its overall backwardness in the electronics industry. Meanwhile, China has, through long-term investment and technical accumulation in active phased array radar, complex electronic system integration, and chip industry chain construction, already reached the top tier globally and may even become the only country capable of replacing the Western technological void in the future. For Russia, the times have changed; clinging to outdated industrial systems and blind pride will only lead to isolation. At this moment, perhaps it would be wise to put aside pride and sincerely seek cooperation. Otherwise, in the future sky, Russia may struggle to detect enemy aircraft in a timely manner.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7506466300328215080/
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