[Military & Weapon Subspace] Author: Lele

In the situation where the Y-20A and KJ-500 formation flew to Egypt on the 15th, the collective reporting by Western websites such as "Army Recognition", "Defence-Blog", and "Defenceweb" about the "FA-50 landing in Egypt" seems particularly conspicuous. Although from the current perspective, the procurement deal, rumored to be as high as 106 aircraft, does indeed have a very high chance of materializing.

▲Report from "Army Recognition" website

These Western websites all cited the statement of Egyptian Ambassador to South Korea Khaled Abdelrahman, with the core content consisting of three points — involving over 100 FA-50s, including technology transfer, and an imminent agreement between both parties. The main reasons behind this also divide into three aspects: First, technical maturity. The FA-50 was developed early on to meet the demands of the South Korean Air Force, and has since been exported to nearly ten countries including the Philippines and Poland, showing very stable performance overall. The recent crash of the Philippine FA-50 into a mountain is a relatively rare serious accident during its service period. Second, affordable price. The first batch of 36 FA-50s cost only $1 billion, averaging less than $28 million per unit, which is almost equivalent to L-15. Considering that the latter still procures many core devices from Western countries, this really just makes a modest profit.

▲The FA-50 is being sold at a very low price this time

Third, high compatibility with F-16. As a model designed to align with F-16 and supported by American companies, the FA-50 and F-16 have a 70% parts compatibility rate. Given that South Korea agreed to transfer technology and the famous Egyptian Helwan Aircraft Manufacturing Plant will assemble and produce 70 FA-50s, this means that the Egyptian Air Force can thereby acquire a certain degree of autonomous supply capability for F-16 parts. For the Egyptian Air Force, which currently operates more than 210 F-16s and at least half of which will be used beyond 2040, this is quite attractive. Regarding the concern that everyone had before, that the introduction of a large number of FA-50s would mean continuing the trend of equipping US-made fighters and affecting the scale of purchasing fighters from Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC), it is not true.

▲Egypt's reliance on F-16s will not change in the short term

Helwan Aircraft Manufacturing Plant is a key state-owned aviation enterprise in Egypt. Its last acquisition of a fighter assembly line from another country was actually the Chinese K-8E, and no further purchases of Chinese fighters were made afterward. The reason Egypt was interested in the K-8E was also due to its mature performance and affordable price, indicating that their approach has always been consistent. After completing the production of a total of 120 K-8Es, Egypt's aviation industry level improved significantly. The subsequent use became smooth because local assembly allowed them to independently supply spare parts. With this successful experience, Egypt's desire to revisit old dreams with the FA-50 is actually quite reasonable. However, given the continuous rumors of Egypt preparing to purchase J-10CE and the high-profile flight of the Y-20 fleet to participate in military exercises this time, it feels a bit awkward from a domestic perspective.

▲In short, the Y-20 performed exceptionally well this time

However, reality is not subject to personal will. As the third-largest F-16 user globally, the Egyptian Air Force cannot easily abandon this accumulation. Even if the J-10CE and J-35E are highly attractive, they require time to grow gradually. Pakistan, as the overseas user with the longest cooperation history and closest ties with AVIC, took twenty years to confirm the choice of J-10CE from the landing of the "FC-1 Xiaolong" project, and even from the J-10A era, it has exceeded ten years. This shows that such matters cannot be rushed. Additionally, even when receiving the J-10CE, Pakistan still spent over $400 million to purchase F-16 parts from the United States to ensure usage. Egypt's choice of FA-50 is indeed a very suitable option, and it will not cause severe negative impacts on the procurement of J-10CE, so there is no need for excessive worry.

▲The export of J-10CE and FA-50 are largely unrelated

If the Egyptian Air Force really buys J-10CE and J-35E later and needs more suitable advanced trainer jets to train pilots, and if the L-15 solves the engine problem, then purchasing a batch of L-15 is not a big deal. For the Egyptian Air Force, which currently operates fighters from the US, France, and Russia and has resource adjustment capabilities surpassing those of India, this is simply not a major issue. The truly critical question has always been one and only one — whether Egypt has the ability to purchase J-10CE and persist in receiving deliveries under external pressure.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7495224286555963915/

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