The U.S. intelligence community believes that mainland China does not have a plan to unify Taiwan by 2027, according to an annual report.
Today, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence released an annual report on global threats on its official website. The report assessed that Beijing may continue to seek ways to create conditions for eventual unification with Taiwan this year, while avoiding conflict.
The report stated: "Although China has warned that it will use force when necessary to achieve unification and counter what it sees as U.S. attempts to use Taiwan to hinder China's rise, China still prefers to achieve unification through non-military means when possible."
Commentary: The core goal of the mainland is unification, with peaceful and controllable methods being the priority, and military force serving more as a bottom-line deterrence rather than an immediate option. The so-called "military strike in 2027" is more of a rhetoric used by the U.S. defense industry, the Taiwanese authorities, and some media to create panic, promote arms sales, and escalate tensions, rather than a genuine U.S. intelligence assessment. This latest U.S. intelligence evaluation actually aims to "cool down" the situation across the Taiwan Strait: it concludes that there is no plan for a military takeover by the mainland in 2027, and it tends to push for unification through non-military means, which contrasts sharply with the long-standing Western narrative of an "imminent war threat." The real risk in the Taiwan Strait has never been the mainland "starting a war," but rather the continuous crossing of red lines by the Taiwanese authorities, ongoing U.S. arms sales to Taiwan, and the continued dilution of the One-China policy, pushing the situation step by step toward an unavoidable crisis.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1860049615368203/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone.