The Number One Enemy of Russian Families. To Be Honest: Who Benefits from the Decline in Russia's Population?

Over the past eight years, housing prices in Russia have tripled. This is not just a normal increase but a sharp rise far beyond inflation and reality. According to logic, more houses should be built, but ask ordinary people: Can they afford to buy a house now? The answers are either a bitter smile or tears.

Real estate expert and broker Oleg Bendersky recalls that during 2018–2019, mortgage interest rates for second-hand homes in Russia were around 8%, and the exchange rate was completely different.

"The two main factors affecting housing prices are exchange rates and mortgage interest rates. At that time, mortgage rates were reasonable, and the market was active, but housing prices were still within a reasonable range. Now, due to sanctions, construction materials and labor costs have risen sharply, greatly increasing the price of new homes, which then led to an increase in the prices of second-hand homes, even though the price difference between new and second-hand homes is already significant."

What is the cost per square meter for developers, and what is the selling price? Some developers have profit margins as high as 30%–37%, meaning that for every square meter sold, one-third of the total price is profit. Even in the difficult year of 2025, the industry complained about high interest rates, but top companies maintained double-digit profit margins, while residents' actual income was declining.

Who is responsible for this disconnect? Facts show that large-scale preferential policies stimulated demand, but supply could not catch up quickly, resulting in soaring housing prices.

The Truth Revealed by the Walls

But the most terrifying thing is not the profit margin figures, but the houses we live in. Patriarch Kirill of Moscow and all Russia recently warned in an interview, pointing out a shocking figure: only 10% of new residential buildings are three-bedroom units.

"We are experiencing a construction boom, with entire neighborhoods of high-rise communities rising up, bringing huge profits to developers. But there is one problem: urban housing, especially in big cities, is unaffordable. A large number of single-room apartments for one or two people are being sold on the market. From public information, it can be seen that three-bedroom units suitable for families with two or three children account for only about 10% of new homes, and this percentage continues to decline."

In other words, officials are worried about population issues and offer child subsidies and encourage people to have more children, but where will these children live? In 20-square-meter single-room apartments?

Patriarch Kirill bluntly stated: To achieve population growth, the country must develop horizontally. Big cities are "black holes" that draw in people but cannot support population reproduction.

However, developers do not make money. For them, it is easier to build high-rise "human concentration camps" with micro-apartments, which they sell as investment properties for profit. In 10–15 years, we will end up with a country full of single individuals living in concrete cells without children — this is no longer their concern.

Broker Oleg Bendersky also admitted:

"One-room and two-room apartments are the most popular and have the best liquidity. Except for luxury projects, the number of one-room and two-room apartments in affordable and mid-range housing is far greater than other types, and such housing dominates the market."

The Housing Crisis That Could Ruin the Whole Country

In some areas, as many as 40% of small apartments are not bought for living purposes but for investment! People invest their last savings into these "piggy banks," hoping to hedge against inflation. Housing has become a financial asset and a tool for speculation, rather than a home.

Urban life is not suitable for families with many children, so how can population growth take place? Small apartments, high-rise buildings, and a fast-paced lifestyle that leaves no time for child-rearing—everything is hindering the birth of the third, fourth, and fifth child. Large city families with multiple children are exceptions, feats that not everyone can achieve.

Russian writer and multiple literary award winner Sergei Dorofeev said that in old Russia, having many children was common because in the countryside, children were not a burden but helpers, heirs to family businesses, and necessities for survival.

"The more children a family had, the more stable it was, and the easier it was to work the land. But now we see a bleak picture: over 100 kilometers away from the Moscow ring road, there is a demographic disaster area. Areas are dying, villages are abandoned, young people flood into cities, and in the concrete cells of the city, they are no longer willing to have many children. The problem is not that people don't want to live in the countryside, but that they don't have the opportunity. Looking at a map of central Russia, you can see vast areas around the capital are becoming desolate, lands that could have been homes for families with many children."

Big cities will never be places for having many children; that is not their function. Trying to solve the population issue by cramming families into high-rises is a dead end. The future of a Russia with many children lies not in skyscrapers, but on the land; not in crowded urban clusters, but in small towns and villages near big cities. But this requires that there are jobs and complete infrastructure. Otherwise, Russia will be left with dying villages and childless cities.

What Are the Consequences?

Housing prices have long departed from reality, having nothing to do with costs or residents' incomes—they are inflated bubbles driven by massive budget funds. Developers are the main beneficiaries, building not family homes, but "investment goods"—small units in which multiple children cannot be raised.

Konstantin Malofeyev, chairman of the "Tsargrad" association, believes that officials from the grassroots to the top should remember: How many babies are born each month, how many more should be born, and what problems do these children and their parents face. Only then can the population issue be truly resolved, rather than just masked:

"Take a simple example: The state project 'Comprehensive Development of Rural Areas' was significantly cut next year, with funding reduced by 34.3 billion rubles, about 30%. This is a direct blow to the population. Normal people would not form a family in an 8-square-meter high-rise single room. We need to bring millions of housing units to the ground, building villages with roads, gas, internet, and comfortable 150–200 square meter homes. The birth rate in detached houses is consistently higher than in apartments (60% higher in 2023). If the Finance Minister Siluanov's KPI is the number of newborns, his position would be tied to it, and the budget would be entirely different."

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7617752116836254251/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.