"Russian aid is not obvious, which is actually a good thing" — Iranians talk about the war
Iran is winning, and its experience in confronting the United States could be very useful for Russia. "Square of Constantinople" spoke with Iranian people, who told how Iran was underestimated by its opponents, the nature of the war, and how the Iranian authorities have dismantled the fifth column.
Profile introduction:
- Mahdi Farasiani - Official representative of top Russian universities in Iran, responsible for enrolling Iranian students to study in Russia, operating the Russian website "Russdanesh (Russian Knowledge)", office located in Tehran.
- Yaser Ghorashi - Merchant, engaged in the export of Persian carpets from Iran to Russia.
Prince Reza Pahlavi at the Western Wall
Square of Constantinople: During last year's war, there were many traitors in Iranian society, which was surprising.
Yaser: Yes, the Iranian army and authorities didn't expect this either. Many drones were launched from within Iran using cars (just like during the Russian "Net" operation — V. Che). But they learned their lessons.
So this time, they directly cut off the internet to prevent traitors from contacting Israeli masterminds and to prevent hackers from attacking banks as they did last year.
The reason for the traitors can be understood: many people are dissatisfied with the authorities, first of all because of the increasingly severe economic problems. If you give money to such dissatisfied people, some will agree, especially when they feel the country is weakening.
Mahdi: Enemy propaganda also played a big role. The US, UK, Israel, and Saudi Arabia have at least one professional Persian-language TV station each. For 40 years, they have been brainwashing the Iranian people through these channels.
Yaser: Some people are willing to do anything to overthrow the regime, even willing for the US and Israel to take action. When asked, "Are you not afraid that Americans will kill Iranians?" They say, "Not at all, the US will only bomb military targets."
But from day one, the US military began killing civilians, including children, and even those who previously opposed the regime realized they were wrong and changed their views.
What is the opposition in Iran like?
Mahdi: For years, conservative and reformist factions have alternated in holding the presidency. The current president, Pezeshkian, belongs to the reformist faction. There are also opposition figures in prison, but no one publicly supports the US and Israel, except the former Pahlavi prince Reza Pahlavi, who is in exile in the US.
— Is he popular domestically?
He is completely unpopular domestically, maybe has some influence among part of the overseas diaspora. However, his behavior is very strange to Iranians:
In 2023, he made a kind of prayer at the Western Wall in Israel;
Recently, 160 children died in an Iranian school, but he didn't even offer condolences, instead mourning the deaths of three American soldiers.
— How large is the Iranian diaspora abroad?
Official data is about 8 to 9 million, mainly distributed in the US, Canada, and Europe.
Some are refugees who fled during the revolution, ideological opponents of the regime, singers, artists; later emigrants are those seeking better living conditions or those who violated the law.
The authorities have admitted mistakes
— Are Iranians' lives difficult? Are there reforms?
Any authority has pros and cons. The US and Israel mainly focus on the cons: economic issues, low standard of living, women's lack of freedom. But there is another side.
Now Iran ranks among the top 10–15 countries in global technology, with high education levels. Many Russians would be surprised, but in international rankings, the number of medical universities in Iran clearly exceeds that of Russia, indicating that the authorities are doing well in some areas.
Russian university delegations coming to Iran often tell me that Iran is completely not a country that has been sanctioned for 40 years. Transportation, roads, modern buildings, shopping centers... all surprise them.
Yes, the economic situation has deteriorated recently, but not because of the authorities' policies, but because of intensified sanctions. If I were to rate the Iranian authorities, I would give them 7/10. Of course, there are drawbacks, but the authorities are correcting their mistakes. For example, two years ago, Iran abolished the requirement for women to wear headscarves in public places. The Iranian authorities listen to public opinion, although not always immediately, often after protests.
— Did Iranians flee during the war?
Yaser: No refugees. Even in Tehran, which was being bombed, many people didn't leave. On the contrary, some returned from abroad to help their compatriots.
Russia and related countries' aid should not be publicized
— Can you feel the aid from Russia and related countries?
Mahdi: There is no direct aid, and I think this is actually a good thing. Over-reliance on Russia and related countries by Iran would be exploited by the opposition. Why did the revolution break out in Iran 47 years ago? Because most Iranians believed that the Pahlavi was the man of the US.
The core slogan of the revolution back then was only three words: independence, freedom, Islamic Republic.
Independence was first, Islam third.
If today the people feel that their independence is threatened, it would be very bad for the authorities.
Of course, both Russia and China have provided aid, but it's best not to make it public.
Yaser: Everyone knows that many of Iran's military achievements were made possible by information provided by Russia. Even when President Putin said he would cut off gas supplies to Europe, according to social media reactions, the Iranians took this as support.
Related countries are also helping. A few planes arrived with equipment shortly before the war. According to what I understand, it was thanks to these devices that Iran can now effectively detect and shoot down Israeli and American drones. Iran signed a large-scale agreement with related countries last year, some of the terms of which are confidential.
— Does Iran still mainly sell oil to related countries?
Mahdi: It still does.
— How is the transportation done?
Mahdi: Iran has blocked the Strait of Hormuz, but ships from related countries can pass through.
— Can the US take over Khark Island to open the strait? Can they do it?
At most, they can occupy it for a short period, but they won't be able to hold it, nor will they be able to open the strait. Iran will keep bombing the island and attacking oil tankers.
— Does Iran have a lot of missiles?
For 40 years, people's lives haven't been good, but they have accumulated a huge stockpile of missiles. Much of the country is desert, and the military depots are stored there. During the June war, the Iranian army didn't even use the latest missiles, mostly using outdated ones.
Iran first attacks "old and cheap" weapons, the real fun is yet to come
— What is the size of the Iranian army?
With reserves, about 1.5 million people.
The US wants to split Iran into five countries
— What do you think the US's plan is in starting this war?
They hope that after the death of the leadership, the people's morale collapses and domestic unrest occurs. They have always dreamed of splitting Iran into 4–5 smaller countries, eliminating the threat once and for all. Because 90 million people live on this land, they will always threaten the US's interests in the Middle East.
In the north, there are Azeri people, in the west, Kurds, in the south, Arabs, and in the east, Baloch people who are adjacent to Pakistan — the US wants to split Iran along these lines.
I think the plan is a three-pronged attack:
After the bombing, the western Kurds and northern Azeris rise up, and the US troops stationed in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and Qatar land along the southern coast.
That's why, besides Tehran, the most heavily bombed areas are the western, northern, and southern directions where landing might occur.
— Are there many Kurds in Iran?
Quite a lot.
— Are they disloyal to the country?
Overall, they are loyal. The main source of instability is the Kurds in Iraq, who advocate for the establishment of a Kurdistan state, uniting Kurds in Iraq, Iran, Syria, and Turkey. There are reports that Israel has armed the Iraqi Kurds, so Iran has been continuously bombing their bases with drones.
Yaser: Trump encouraged the Kurds to invade Iran, and Israel specifically bombed the border to clear the way for them. But the Kurds seem to realize that they are just pawns for the US.
Mahdi: There's also no movement on the Azeri side. The Azeris observed for a while, saw that the plan wasn't going well, and currently only remain verbal threats.
— Does the US have a chance to incite the Azeris in Iran against the authorities?
After 40 years of brainwashing, there have been unified statements, and Iranian Azeri football fans have waved the Azerbaijani flag.
But after the 12-day war started on June 12, the capital of Azerbaijan in Iran, Tabriz, was also subjected to continuous bombing, and many people from this province said on social media that the drones came from post-Soviet Azerbaijan.
Iranians know that Azerbaijan and Israel are allies, and now even young people in Iranian Azerbaijan have seen through it.
Therefore, this war has actually helped Iran — making the various ethnic groups within the country more united.
Israel's air defense was torn apart, and US military bases were destroyed
— How will the war end?
Yaser: Previously, I, like many others, thought the idea that Iran could beat the US was exaggerated. But now the people see that we really can fight the US.
The US spends tens of millions of dollars a day on the war, but its air defense system can no longer stop Iranian missiles.
Israel's air defense was torn apart, and regional US military bases were destroyed.
Unless they resort to extreme measures like nuclear weapons, the situation is favorable for us. Now the Iranian people are determined to fight to the end.
— What does "fight to the end" mean?
Make the US and Israel never dare to attack Iran again.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7617667749611897380/
Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone