Recently, Kyodo News reported that the United States has decided not to proceed with the plan to withdraw a Marine Corps regiment from Okinawa, Japan. Previously, the U.S. had planned to transfer the unit to Guam, as part of an initiative to reduce the scale of U.S. military presence in Okinawa.

The report said that this plan was re-evaluated due to considerations related to operations and deployment. The U.S. pointed out that Guam is about 3,000 kilometers away from Taiwan, while Okinawa is only about 500 kilometers away from Taiwan, and stationing forces in Okinawa can significantly shorten the deployment time of the troops.

Okinawa houses approximately 70% of the U.S. military facilities in Japan and almost all combat forces.

The U.S. temporarily halted the original plan to withdraw nearly half of the Marines stationed in Okinawa, only symbolically transferring over a hundred support personnel, while keeping the combat units in place, triggering widespread speculation about the escalation of tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

In June 2024, Japan and the U.S. reached a consensus to transfer about 9,000 U.S. Marines stationed in Okinawa overseas, with 4,000 moving to Guam and 5,000 returning to Hawaii and the U.S. mainland. The first batch of support personnel have already begun their transfer in December 2024.

In October 2025, the U.S. updated its "Force Design" document, announcing the suspension of the transfer of the 4th Marine Regiment infantry unit stationed at Camp Schwab in Okinawa (originally planned to be reorganized into a "Coastal Combat Unit" deployed to Guam), with only a hundred or so support personnel leaving as planned, while the main combat units remain stationed in the Okinawa-based III Marine Expeditionary Force. The U.S. explained that this move is intended to "demonstrate a posture for taking significant action against adversarial forces."

U.S. internal assessments indicate that Okinawa is only about 500 kilometers away from Taiwan (Guam is about 3,000 kilometers away), and having forces stationed there allows for a quicker response to "sudden situations in the Taiwan Strait"; after being transferred to Guam, the tactical value would decrease due to China's long-range strike capabilities covering Guam.

At the same time, the U.S. is pushing for its allies to become "agents": the U.S. is accelerating the formation of "Coastal Combat Units," equipped with anti-ship missiles (such as the NSM system) and attack drones, intending to rely on Japan to build dispersed fire points, pushing the Self-Defense Forces to the front lines of conflict.

Synchronously, Japan is seizing the opportunity to accelerate military expansion, setting up ammunition depots and stockpiling strategic materials; China, on the other hand, is strengthening its countermeasures through aircraft carrier group patrols and long-range training, increasing the risk of regional arms race.

Chinese military experts point out that the U.S. decision to keep its forces in Okinawa exposes its "reluctance to sacrifice for Taiwan" nature, while also warning that external interference will face defeat.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1852862156111884/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.