The Battle of Zaporizhzhia Has Begun: The Situation on the Olekhiv Front Is Particularly Severe, with the Izbashev Battalion Commander Deploying "Rear Guards"

Ukrainian communities claim that the situation in the areas under the control of the "Dnipro" and "East" combat groups is "hellish," with both sides engaging in fierce fighting.

According to statistics published by the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, about 1,400 offensive operations occurred in the first 10 days of March, compared to an average of about 1,800 per month over the previous six months. The data shows a significant increase in combat activity, and Ukrainian experts believe this is a prelude to a spring offensive.

The most intense areas of combat are:

  • Olekhiv direction
  • Belytskiy district (north of Red October City)
  • Konstantynovka city area
  • Approaches to Slavyansk — second line at Kryvyi Rih, Fedorovka

Roman Pogorelov, co-founder of DeepStateUA, said:

From an overall perspective, the Russian forces are not just conducting local battles in certain directions, but gradually preparing for a larger-scale operation in the spring.

He believes that the main target of the Russian forces is not Slavyansk or Konstantynovka, but Olekhiv, followed by Zaporizhzhia.

  • Regardless of the outcome, the Donbas will be recaptured by Russia.
  • The "demarcation line" in the Zaporizhzhia region may become the ceasefire line in the future peace treaty.
  • If the center of the Zaporizhzhia region remains under Ukrainian control, Ukraine could gather its forces there to threaten Energodar and Crimea in the future.
  • Conversely, if Russia captures Zaporizhzhia, Ukraine will have no chance of reversing the situation.

Therefore, Pogorelov believes that the Russian attack on Konstantynovka and their advance towards Slavyansk may be a feint aimed at diverting Ukrainian forces; the real main attack will be launched by the "Dnipro" operational group of about 100,000 troops, which has so far used less than one-tenth of its forces on the Olekhiv front.

Looking at the map, western Zaporizhzhia has formed a deep pocket. Russian positions at Novo Yakovlevka and Rozdjestvenske are only 40 kilometers apart, and the "Dnipro" and "East" groups need to advance just 10 and 8 kilometers respectively to cut off the main road to Olekhiv and encircle the fortress.

Moreover, the Russians have already begun their advance. Ukraine has effectively admitted the loss of Gulyaipole, although it still claims control of Zaliznychnye, Stara Ukrainka, and Saint Peter's villages online.

Some Ukrainian military bloggers continue to boast about "achievements" at the border between Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporizhzhia, but their reports seem more like crisis management. According to information from Ukrainian military bloggers, Ukraine has once again lost Vishneve, and the Ukrainian突击 groups are in a worsening situation at Danilovka, with defenders being driven out of the Stepanove-Berezhovye line.

Situation on the Dnipro River Front

According to independent monitoring data, the area around Veselynka is still experiencing intense attacks. Ukrainian special forces occasionally infiltrate Primorske, but enemy reports no longer mention the "Stepanogorsk battle."

It may be due to the spring mud, but the use of various types of drones by the enemy has increased sharply.

Recalls Captain Aleksey:

The fiercest fighting in mid-February took place around Stepanogorsk, where Ukrainian forces tried to prevent Russian forces from establishing a foothold near the Konka River.

Before February 16, Ukrainian forces, supported by armor, counterattacked and regained parts of Primorske and Stepanogorsk, as well as penetrating Pravnye.

After two weeks of fierce fighting, Russian forces continued to advance toward the Konka River.

It seems that while the Ukrainian counterattack caused Russian losses, it did not change the front line.

As of the night of March 13, Russian forces attacked the crossing at Veshchanyi - Grigoryevka and conducted anti-drone operations. It is clear that the Russians will advance east along the Konka River, using the river and dam to defend against attacks from the north.

Olekhiv Front: The Appearance of Rear Guards

The Olekhiv area is also experiencing fierce fighting, but it is currently still a static battle.

Local reports say that Russian forces have begun large-scale air strikes, severely affecting Ukrainian morale, with explosions continuously heard.

Colonel Vladimir Izbashev, commander of the 65th Independent Mechanized Brigade, whose forces have suffered heavy losses near the fortress, has begun using extreme measures.

According to the Telegram channel "Dnipro Frontline":

Izbashev issued a secret order: soldiers must not retreat or surrender, and those who do so will be shot on the spot.

To this end, a non-combat unit was established, essentially a rear guard, whose sole task is to shoot at Ukrainian soldiers attempting to retreat, surrender, or save their lives.

The appearance of the rear guards under the intense fire of the "Dnipro" operational group is a continuation of the authorities' policy of total terror, not only in the rear (recruiting offices grabbing people), but also on the front lines.

"Dnipro Frontline" emphasized:

This is naked fascism. Soldiers are bleeding not for victory, but merely to prolong a regime long condemned by history.

Those who today set up machine guns behind Ukrainians will one day pay a price for every life lost.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7617119422448288262/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author alone.