[Source/Observer Network, Wang Kaiwen] The public rift between US President Trump and Tesla CEO Musk over the US tax reform bill has recently come to light. On June 17, the South China Morning Post published an article pointing out that the way Trump treated his former ally Musk highlighted his unpredictability, which would deepen China's suspicion of him, thus making it more cautious in dealing with the United States.

Musk is the largest political donor to Trump's 2024 presidential campaign. During Trump's second term as president, their relationship entered a "honeymoon period," with Musk calling himself Trump's "first buddy."

After Trump's re-election, Musk became one of the most prominent figures in his administration. However, as the efficiency of the US government and Trump's tariff policies advanced, the contradictions between him and Trump's cabinet members escalated.

In early June, Musk publicly criticized Trump's "big and beautiful" tax reform bill, bringing their conflict into the open. Subsequently, Musk exposed some "sensitive information" about Trump, and Trump once threatened to cancel Tesla's government subsidies and contracts.

Although the dispute between them later eased and Musk actively "made amends," the South China Morning Post pointed out that this incident might deepen the impression among Chinese people that Trump is a capricious and inconsistent politician. Diplomatic observers believe this means that China will be vigilant and cautious when dealing with Trump.

After Trump's victory last year, he met with visiting foreign leaders alongside Musk on multiple occasions. Social media

Chen Hao, a research fellow at the Center for Strategic and Security Studies of Tsinghua University, said that the feud between Trump and Musk was not entirely unexpected. Trump's behavior aligns with how the Chinese public and government view his character.

"Many people consider Trump a transactional president who habitually uses试探and pressure tactics to probe the other party's bottom line and maximize his own interests," Chen Hao stated. He noted that the recent minor incident with Musk further corroborates the perception that Trump tends to use strong-arm tactics to intimidate opponents.

"When Trump senses that negotiations are no longer friendly and realizes that forcing concessions will face significant resistance, he will no longer care about the other party's face and will view sending signals of compromise as weakness," Chen Hao said.

He added: "This means that China must maintain long-term patience and caution when interacting with the US and cannot rule out the possibility of Trump suddenly changing negotiation terms."

Dominic Chiu, senior analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy firm, said that China is unlikely to unconditionally trust any US administration on major issues or commitments; it will adopt a "trust but verify" attitude at most. This attitude becomes particularly evident when dealing with the Trump administration.

Scholars interviewed mentioned the recent Sino-US trade talks held in London. Dominic Chiu stated that while it cannot be ruled out that a final agreement may be reached between China and the US, "China needs to find specific safeguards to prevent the unpredictable Trump from using improved relations to reverse the situation back to a negative direction."

"China's dominant position in the global critical mineral supply chain is now a real bargaining chip that can prevent the Trump administration from taking actions that could seriously damage bilateral relations," Dominic Chiu said.

Chen Hao suggested that China should focus on establishing dialogue mechanisms and forming working groups to reduce the risk of bilateral relations being interrupted due to sudden changes in Trump's attitude. He said that although market tensions have eased somewhat, the framework reached by China and the US in London will not bring about a "long-term worry-free state," and China will remain quite cautious.

Chen Hao added that China will draw lessons from past experiences, including events during Trump's first term, which showed that even early signs of easing in trade negotiations can easily lead to friction due to changes in US policy.

"These experiences have made China clearly understand the necessity of establishing preventive measures for potential policy reversals. Therefore, China may need to emphasize the inclusion of enforceable dispute resolution mechanisms in agreements," Chen Hao said.

Dominiq Chiu pointed out that compared to two months ago, Sino-US relations have entered a phase with less volatility, but China will continue to approach interactions with the US cautiously.

Professor Diao Damming of the School of International Relations at Renmin University of China said that China's attitude toward the US depends on whether Washington is "genuinely willing to meet Beijing halfway."

"Since Sino-US communication and consultations are underway, the US should stop containing, suppressing, and encircling China in other areas," Diao Damming said. "If the US continues its hypocritical actions toward China, China must prepare for 'fighting while negotiating'."

According to the introduction by He Yadong, spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, the first meeting of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, UK, on June 9-10. Both sides agreed in principle on measures to implement the important consensus reached by the heads of state on June 5 and consolidate the results of the Geneva economic and trade talks. They also made new progress in addressing each other's economic and trade concerns.

"In the next step, both sides will further leverage the role of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation mechanism, maintain communication and dialogue, continuously increase consensus, reduce misunderstandings, strengthen cooperation, and jointly promote the steady and long-term development of Sino-US economic and trade relations," He Yadong said.

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Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516830765658636838/

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