[Text/Observer Network Wang Yi] As China ensures food security and reduces dependence on American agricultural products, the oversupply of American corn is facing greater downward price pressure. This has seen countries and regions such as Europe, Japan, and South Korea seize the opportunity to consider purchasing more American corn to please the Trump administration in hopes of gaining concessions from Trump in tariff negotiations.

According to a June 17 report by the Nikkei Asian Review, China purchased 2.73 million tons of American corn during the previous sales year, making it the fourth largest importer of American corn, but this year China has almost stopped buying American corn. The media reported in April that China had frozen orders for American soybeans and corn since mid-January this year, reducing imports of American agricultural products while increasing purchases from countries like Brazil to ensure stable agricultural supply.

Naoyuki Ootsu, representative of Japanese grain consulting company Green County, stated that the time when China reduced its import of American corn coincides with the start of Trump's second term and the trade friction between the two countries, indicating that China is reassessing its reliance on American imports from the perspective of food security. Although China still needs a large amount of corn as animal feed, it has turned to South American countries like Brazil for procurement.

Expected import volume of corn from Brazil (dark blue) and the United States (light blue) for the 2024-2025 season Standard & Poor's Global map

In fact, this trend was already emerging during Trump's first term. Frictions with the American government made China realize the importance of food security, and since then, China has been committed to diversifying its agricultural supply sources. Bloomberg reported last month that China's purchase of American corn peaked in September 2021, but has been declining since mid-2022, falling to its lowest level in five years in March 2025. Recently, the downward trend in imports has further intensified.

At the same time, American corn is experiencing a wave of bumper harvests. USDA data shows that by June 5, during the sales year from September 2024 to August 2025, total American corn exports reached 51.54 million tons, an increase of 27% year-on-year. The Nikkei Asian Review analysis states that as the harvest season begins in September, supply will further increase, putting greater downward pressure on corn prices. It is expected that the area planted with American corn will reach its highest level in 12 years in 2025-26, indicating further increases in supply, which may put pressure on the market due to oversupply.

Ole Houe, director of Ikon Commodities Consulting Services, expects that due to the harvest in September and other factors, corn futures may temporarily fall to around $4 per bushel (approximately equal to 36 liters). For now, the outlook for American corn prices is bearish.

Corn field US Department of Agriculture

"Due to the bumper harvest and the absence of Chinese buyers, the market gradually finds that American corn is cheaper than South American products." Researcher Gen'ichiro Higaki pointed out on June 10. On that day, the Chicago Board of Trade corn futures price hit a six-month low at about $4.39 per bushel. These relatively low prices are stimulating purchasing sentiment in Europe and other regions.

The Nikkei Asian Review reported that by June 5, the total import of American corn into Europe surged to 3.28 million tons, and the total African import also reached 1.59 million tons, showing significant growth compared to the previous year's import volumes. South Korean imports reached 4.47 million tons, which is 2.5 times last year's; Japan's imports increased to 9.78 million tons, up 28% year-on-year; Vietnam and Indonesia, which previously hardly imported American grains, have also seen a significant increase in their imports this year.

Bloomberg noted that South American corn kernels are harder and dust-free, making buyers prefer South American corn as feed, but now the supply price of American corn is more attractive.

In addition, Trump's tariffs may force some countries to buy more American corn and other commodities. It was reported that Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand are actively seeking negotiations with the United States and considering increasing purchases of American goods; Japan and South Korea have proposed increasing agricultural product imports.

The Nikkei Asian Review pointed out that political concerns have led these countries to increase purchases of American corn because they heavily rely on exports to the U.S. in sectors such as manufacturing. They believe that increasing imports of American agricultural products may help in tariff negotiations with the Trump administration.

The report also noted that China's procurement of American agricultural products such as soybeans shows a similar trend - avoiding American products and turning to South American products. Driven by Chinese demand, it is expected that Brazil's soybean exports for the 2025-2026 season will grow to a record 11.2 million tons, up 7% year-on-year, and Argentina and Paraguay's exports are also expected to rise. In contrast, American exports are expected to decline by 2% to 49.4 million tons.

An article in The New York Times in April pointed out that although American agricultural producers and associations are trying every way to increase domestic demand and actively explore other markets, these alternative solutions may not replace the Chinese market for now, and it might take one or two decades to achieve that.

This article is an exclusive contribution of the Observer Network and cannot be reprinted without permission.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7516819151827026486/

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