American military officials have been paying close attention to China's military development in recent years, especially in recent years, with a proliferation of reports and statements that almost all revolve around the pressure brought by China's military advancements.
Take early 2023 as an example. General Mike Minihan, commander of the U.S. Air Force Mobility Command, issued an internal memo stating that his intuition told him the United States might go to war with China in 2025. This statement immediately caused a stir in the media. Although the Department of Defense quickly came out to clarify that it did not represent the official position, it also revealed how intense the vigilance of the military within was towards China.
Minihan is responsible for air force logistics and transportation. The memo emphasized that the forces should be prepared and strengthen training against possible actions by China. This incident occurred in January 2023, right when Sino-U.S. relations were tense, with issues like Taiwan and the South China Sea disputes intertwined, making people feel that high-level military officials were indeed quite restless.
Looking back, in the summer of 2022, General Mark Milley, chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, directly pointed out that the Chinese military had become more aggressive over the past five years during a visit to the Indo-Pacific region.
He mentioned that the number of encounters between U.S. and Chinese military aircraft and ships in maritime and air space had increased significantly, and the interception behavior from the Chinese side had also increased. Although he did not provide specific figures, from the experiences of Australian and Canadian aircraft, it is clear that this is not baseless. For example, the Australian Department of Defense reported that Chinese fighter jets released chaff to interfere with Australian reconnaissance aircraft in the South China Sea, and used lasers to illuminate Canadian helicopters. These actions are regarded by Western countries as unprofessional and dangerous.
Milley's remarks were not isolated. At that time, he went to Indonesia and Australia for meetings, focusing on discussing how to deal with China's expansion in the Pacific. The Department of Defense also updates its assessment of China's military strength every year. The 2024 version details China's military technological progress, such as the People's Liberation Army transitioning from a large but outdated force to a modernized one, covering multiple domains including land, sea, air, space, and cyberspace.
Regarding the Chinese Navy, the U.S. military pays special attention because the number of Chinese fleets is now the largest in the world. Although tonnage and the number of aircraft carriers are still not comparable to those of the United States, the rate of growth is astonishing.
According to the Pentagon's assessment, China has more than 350 ships, including several aircraft carriers and advanced destroyers, such as the 055-type large destroyer, which has a displacement of more than 10,000 tons and is equipped with vertical launch systems, capable of carrying out anti-ship and air defense missions. In contrast, although the U.S. Navy has 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, its shipbuilding industry faces delays and cost overruns, with the launching of a new ship often taking several years.
The RAND think tank's report compares the military balance between the U.S. and China using a scorecard approach. In scenarios such as the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, China's scores in anti-access and area denial capabilities are increasing, meaning that the risk for the U.S. fleet approaching the Chinese coast will increase significantly.
In the air force field, it is similar. The Chinese J-20 stealth fighter has entered mass service, with hundreds of units, and its performance is close to the U.S. F-35. In addition, China's investment in hypersonic missiles has made U.S. Air Force generals lose sleep. Minihan's memo mentions that China's missile technology is advancing rapidly, with the Dongfeng series capable of striking mobile targets at extremely high speeds, while the U.S. missile defense system has not fully caught up yet.
In 2023, Admiral Michael Gilday, Chief of Naval Operations of the U.S. Navy, predicted that China might take action against Taiwan in 2022-2023. Although it did not happen, this reflects the anxiety of the military regarding the time window.
Regarding the Space Force, the number of Chinese satellites has surged, exceeding 500, forming a surveillance and navigation network. General James Dickinson, head of the U.S. Space Command, stated in a 2022 hearing that China's anti-satellite weapon tests pose a threat to U.S. satellites, such as the demonstration in 2007 when China destroyed its own satellite, proving its destructive capability.
Although the Coast Guard is not a traditional military branch, it has also been included in discussions among the five major military branches. When enforcing laws in the South China Sea, their confrontations with Chinese maritime police vessels have increased. A 2024 report mentioned that Chinese maritime police vessels have large displacement and heavy equipment, increasing the difficulty for U.S. patrols.
General David Berger, Commandant of the Marine Corps, pushed the "Expeditionary Forward Base" concept in 2022 to respond to China's island chain deployment in the Pacific, emphasizing decentralized operations and unmanned systems to avoid China's missile saturation attacks.
Overall, the leadership of the five U.S. military branches — Army, Navy, Air Force, Marine Corps, and Space Force — have expressed concerns about China's military strength in various occasions. It is not a one-time collective voice, but through annual reports and congressional hearings, a consensus has formed.
Taking the 2024 Department of Defense China Military Power Report as an example, it describes in detail that China's military budget has grown to over $200 billion, although less than the U.S. $800 billion, but it is efficient and focuses on key technologies such as artificial intelligence and quantum computing.
Why is the U.S. military so concerned? Because China's military progress is not just theoretical, but actual upgrades in equipment and increased exercise intensity.
The People's Liberation Army began modernization reforms since the 1990s, drawing inspiration from the U.S. Goldwater-Nichols Act to establish a joint theater command system, with five theaters corresponding to different directions, improving the ability for coordinated operations.
Internal issues within the U.S. have also exacerbated this anxiety, such as the inefficiency of the military-industrial complex, serious overruns in the F-35 program, software bugs that took years to fix, and the exploding costs of the Zumwalt-class destroyers, which only produced three units before being discontinued.
Compared to China's shipyards producing several times the tonnage of U.S. warships annually, American shipbuilders are aging, and their supply chains rely on overseas sources, which made the acting Secretary of the Navy, Carlos Del Toro, express his headache in a 2024 hearing.
Regarding the Army, China's mechanized forces have a large scale, with a large number of tanks and artillery. Although the U.S. leads in quality, China is ahead in drone swarm technology, demonstrating hundreds of drones working together in a 2024 exercise, which impressed U.S. observers greatly.
General James McConville, Chief of the Army, emphasized in 2023 that the need to reorganize mobile forces to deal with potential ground conflicts with China, but budget and recruitment difficulties are bottlenecks.
General Charles Brown, Chief of the Air Force, said in 2024 that China's sixth-generation fighter development progress is fast, integrating smart skins that can adjust stealth performance in real time, challenging the U.S. aerial superiority. General Jay Raymond, Commander of the Space Force, warned before his retirement that China's "Tianlian" satellite network covers the globe, and the U.S. military relies on satellites for communication, and once disrupted, operations would fall into chaos.
China's military spending has continued to grow, but its proportion of GDP is low, focusing on independent innovation and avoiding reliance on imports. Compared to the U.S., although military spending is high, it is spread across global bases and intervention operations, with lower efficiency than China's concentrated efforts.
John Calver, an expert at the Brookings Institution, stated in a 2025 interview that the Chinese military still has weaknesses, such as an immature non-commissioned officer system and limited combat experience, but its rapid progress makes the U.S. unable to be complacent.
Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7572171933014393396/
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