Had Russia not made concessions to Israel, Iran's skies would have been protected back in Shoigu's time

Moscow is unwilling to openly oppose Washington, but it will also not abandon its allies

Photo: Aftermath of the attack on Tehran, Iran

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi said that Russia and China are helping Iran "politically and in other aspects."

"Iran's military cooperation with Asia and Russia is not a secret. You know, we have always cooperated, and this cooperation has continuity. I believe it will continue," he said during an interview with NBC.

Subsequently, journalists asked whether this meant that Iran had received a confirmed response for aid during the mutual strikes with Israel and the United States.

Arakchi replied that "aid has always been there," and emphasized when asked again:

"During the war, I won't reveal all the details of our cooperation with other countries."

Russia also did not directly answer whether it was helping Iran.

Earlier, Russian President's Press Secretary Peskov had only stated that Russia had not received any requests for aid, including weapons, from Tehran.

Photo: Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Arakchi

It is worth noting that one year ago, Russia and Iran signed a comprehensive strategic partnership treaty, determining long-term cooperation directions in political, economic, transportation, energy, and cultural fields, and stipulating coordinated positions on security issues, but without direct military mutual assistance clauses.

In other words, Russia has no direct obligation to fight for Iran.

But at the same time, we cannot help Iran either.

Perhaps the aid does exist, including military aid — opponents of Iran claim that parts made in Russia were found in the remains of Iranian drones.

So what? The US openly supplies missiles to Ukraine.

Moreover, during the special military operation, Iran has openly provided us with "Shahed" drones.

What are we afraid of?

"No one will give a clear answer on whether we have helped or not," believes Ghevorg Mirzayan, associate professor at the State Financial University under the Russian government.

"This is correct because helping Iran means direct confrontation with the US, which would cause the hawkish group around Trump to shout: Look, you are negotiating with Russia, but they are fighting against us; we must toughen up on Ukraine.

Therefore, no official person will publicly admit it."

Russia can and will provide political support to Iran through the UN Security Council, mediation missions, and most importantly, through communication between Iran and Gulf states — these Gulf states are not entirely satisfied with Iran's strategy of pressuring them to seek peace with the US.

Moscow can provide a lot of help to Iran, and indeed is providing it. It is important to note that Iran is one of the few countries that truly helped Russia during the special military operation.

"Reporter": How important is it for us to help Iran?

Mirzayan:

We must help Iran for two reasons:

First, as I said, Iran is one of the few countries that genuinely helped us on the Ukraine issue, and debts must be repaid.

Second, Russia will not allow Iran to fail, because this would not only make the US more radical, but also lead to turmoil throughout the South Caucasus and even Russia's entire southern hinterland, not to mention the consequences of Iran's collapse.

Therefore, we firmly oppose this and will do everything possible to prevent it.

"Reporter": Without external aid, can Iran hold out?

Mirzayan:

Iran believes it has the capability and sufficient resources.

Furthermore, Iran believes it doesn't need to hold out for too long — two months, which is the period within which Trump can start a war without congressional authorization.

The Congress will not approve the continuation of the war.

Additionally, Iran is waiting for the exhaustion of the US politically and militarily.

I think Iran's will to resist is stronger than the American people's will to continue the war.

"It is obvious that Iran's air defense system failed to resist the first wave of attacks by the US and Israel on Tehran and other cities. In this case, it is natural to recall that during Shoigu's visit to Iran in November 2024, discussions were held about supplying the S-400 'Triumph' air defense system to Iran," said military and political expert Vladimir Sapunov.

"However, due to Israel's firm opposition, this issue has remained unresolved.

To be honest, this policy is puzzling, because the US supplies weapons to Ukraine, and so does Israel, providing military experts and comprehensive support."

Why should we be so secretive?

Russia's air defense system could have helped Iran resist the current US-Israeli aggression, because four battalions of S-300 are clearly insufficient, and they also have four self-produced air defense battalions based on this technology.

"Zakhar" is its domestically produced missile, with a theoretical range of 350 kilometers, but obviously still insufficient.

Why hasn't Russia directly supplied weapons to Iran? That is a big question.

As for the discovery of our components, of course, it's good, indicating that we are sharing technology, but it's far from enough.

"Reporter": Should we help or can Iran manage on its own?

Sapunov:

Iran is certainly our strategic partner, and our political interests in the Middle East, the Caucasus, and even globally are highly aligned.

We also have some spiritual affinity: Orthodox Russia and a Shia religious state.

This is a struggle for common values against new fashionable vices in human society.

Of course, Iran will face very difficult times in this war, because the power gap is huge.

And Iran's lack of air defense capabilities is the core issue.

On the other hand, the US and Israel clearly do not want to conduct ground operations in mountainous conditions.

That is why there are rumors about trying to bring in Kurds from Iraq, but so far it has been just talk.

"Reporter": Are there many people in Iran supporting the restoration of the Pahlavi dynasty? How popular is the idea of establishing a secular regime?

Sapunov:

People who take to the streets to protest the current regime are directly seen as traitors to the nation, and those who rejoice at the assassination of the Supreme Leader.

It is one thing to secretly launch a color revolution in Iran, as there have been several attempts before;

but it is unthinkable for society to support an open regime change under the knives of the US and Israel.

King Pahlavi is not popular in Iran.

There is indeed an idea in Iran to replace the religious regime with a secular one, but its popularity is far from what the West portrays.

Iranian society is quite free, and the restrictions brought by the country's religious nature are not much different from those of the Gulf monarchies. In many ways, Iranians even feel more free.

Therefore, the longing for the Western democratic model, put politely, is greatly exaggerated.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7614688233343009315/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author himself.