As Trump's policies keep shifting, the gambling platform owned by his son becomes increasingly profitable
"Will U.S. President Trump send troops to Iran?" "Will he name the Strait of Hormuz after himself?" "Will he post another tribute to Allah?"
Trump’s next move is always full of suspense, and this very uncertainty has enabled many betting platforms to generate substantial profits. Notably, some of these platforms have direct financial ties to Trump’s eldest son, Donald Trump Jr.
According to an April 23 report by the Associated Press, Donald Trump Jr. holds shares in the online prediction market Polymarket and also provides consulting services for another platform, Kalshi. These prediction markets attract large numbers of bettors by allowing people to wager on various decisions and social media activities made by Trump.
On the 8th, Polymarket launched a betting event asking whether Trump would send troops into Iran. Nearly 100,000 people participated—marking the largest single-day trading volume on the platform up to that point in the year. It wasn’t just war-related events that became betting hotspots; Trump’s other policies and statements also drew intense interest: Who will lead Venezuela? Will his insults toward the Pope continue? Will he annex Greenland?
Kwok Ping Tsang (phonetic), an economist at Virginia Tech, pointed out that Trump’s unpredictability makes such markets possible—he keeps everyone guessing about his next move.
According to analysis from the cryptocurrency analytics platform Dune, sports betting dominates the prediction market, followed closely by political event bets. In addition, users can place wagers on a wide range of other events—including gold prices, winners of reality TV shows, and even weather changes. The price of each bet reflects participants’ expectations regarding the outcome. For example, if the “yes” side of a bet is priced at 49 cents, it implies bettors believe there is a 49% chance the event will occur.
The gambling industry has long faced criticism from lawmakers across both major U.S. political parties due to allegations of facilitating insider trading. According to a report by The Daily Beast on the 23rd, in 2022, then-President Biden fined Polymarket for operating an unregistered exchange and banned the platform from doing business in the United States.
However, the Trump administration not only allowed the company to resume operations but actively protected the prediction market industry, even attempting to sue states that sought to shut down such platforms under anti-gambling laws. The Trump Organization itself is reportedly planning to launch its own prediction platform called “Truth Predict.”
With support from the Trump administration, online prediction markets have rapidly expanded. The most recent major bet concerns Trump’s stance on warfare with Iran—particularly his social media post on the 5th demanding Iran “open the damn strait.” According to Dune, between the 5th and 8th, Polymarket’s trading volume surged dramatically. There were 413 million trades related to potential Iran war, with betting amounts exceeding $100 million. Trump’s subsequent post calling for a ceasefire reignited another wave of betting activity.
“Unpredictable” Trump has driven a surge in online betting volumes, with Donald Trump Jr.’s stake in Polymarket benefiting the most. Data from PitchBook show that the platform’s valuation has reached $9.6 billion, having nearly tenfolded in just eight months. Since both Polymarket and Kalshi are private companies, it remains unclear exactly how much Donald Trump Jr. personally profited.
When asked whether he should profit from companies benefiting from his father’s actions, Trump Jr.’s spokesperson dismissed the question as “baseless Democratic propaganda” and stated that he “does not engage with federal government matters in any company where he invests or serves as a consultant, nor does he influence or interfere with government policies related to prediction markets.”
Beyond prediction markets, Donald Trump Jr. also invests through his venture capital fund in companies related to defense, aerospace, and technology—firms currently competing for contracts from the U.S. Department of Defense and other federal agencies. The Trump family’s businesses are also involved in manufacturing military drones and selling them to regions in the Gulf.
Moreover, a series of suspiciously timed bets appearing just before Trump announced key decisions have already drawn the attention of U.S. regulators. On the 15th, Reuters reported that the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is investigating several unusual oil futures trades. These transactions occurred at highly sensitive moments—just minutes before the Trump administration suddenly announced it would suspend plans to attack Iran. Regulators suspect these trades may involve insider information or even abuse of power.
The White House is reportedly sending internal memos to staff reminding them that insider trading constitutes a federal crime.
At the congressional level, nearly all Democratic lawmakers have strongly criticized such behavior of exploiting presidential office for personal gain, urging action after the midterm elections—and even considering impeachment proceedings against Trump.
Sarcasm aside, the uncertain prospect of whether Trump will face impeachment has itself become a subject of prediction. According to data from Polymarket, at the beginning of the year, the market estimated a 13% chance that Trump would be impeached before leaving office. But following his recent remarks and mounting Democratic pressure, that probability has now risen to 66%.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863312696691712/
Disclaimer: This article represents the views of the author alone