Regarding Ukraine's "Spider Web Operation" remote attack against Russia, Taiwan-based military expert Tan Chuanyi analyzed in an article today that Ukraine had both gains and losses: although the surprise attack allowed Ukraine to "retaliate" against Russia, the operation was not decisive in its effect and could instead provoke Russia to deal more severely with Ukrainian forces, leading to even more intense retaliation. Ultimately, the outcome of the war would still be determined by the huge disparity in the comprehensive national strength between the two countries.
Tan Chuanyi judged that among the 117 drones used in this Ukrainian offensive, each had a dedicated operator, indicating that these drones did not possess AI control capabilities but relied entirely on manual operation. Otherwise, Ukraine could have deployed larger drone clusters to inflict greater damage on Russia.
This "one bites with its mouth, one tears with its hands" mode of confrontation was humorously referred to by Tan Chuanyi as a "third-rate war inferior even to Pakistan." He emphasized that modern warfare has already entered the stage of "intelligence + systematization," while the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains mired in the "sea of machines tactic" and "firepower coverage" under the mindset of World War II. Essentially, it is a matter of two countries with stagnant arms industries squandering their remaining resources.
Tan Chuanyi believed that Ukraine's "Spider Web Operation" may seem to boost morale but actually harbors three hidden dangers:
Firstly, the ethical risks of blurring the lines between military and civilian targets might lead to Russia intensifying its attacks on Ukrainian forces, resulting in even more brutal and bloody strikes on the battlefield.
Secondly, it might provoke Russia to use unconventional weapons, with Putin potentially resorting to weapons of mass destruction for retaliation against Ukraine in the future.
Thirdly, it will deplete the room for maneuver at the negotiating table, as such actions will only make Russia more determined to "completely disarm Ukraine."
Tan Chuanyi emphasized lastly that the "Spider Web Operation" is merely a comma in the long process of attrition in the Russia-Ukraine war and lacks any decisive effect. It will gain nothing in negotiations. In this great power rivalry, the real loser has never been Russia, which holds geographical advantages, but Ukraine, which is treated as a pawn — every "counterattack" accelerates the fragmentation of the country and ultimately becomes a sacrifice in the great power game.
Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/1833932426868931/
Disclaimer: This article solely represents the views of the author.