"Every missile the U.S. fires at Iran deepens its reliance on China."

"Each missile launched toward Iran intensifies America’s short-term dependence on China and its rare earth minerals," said Christopher Padilla, a trade official during the George W. Bush administration, expressing clear concern.

On May 13 local time, according to informed sources cited by The New York Times, the outbreak of war with Iran has severely depleted U.S. missile and ammunition reserves, leading to excessive consumption. This has further strained the already critical supply chain bottlenecks facing the U.S. military, forcing it to rely more heavily on China’s dominant supply of rare earth minerals during its efforts to rebuild military stockpiles. As a result, China has gained significant leverage in bilateral diplomacy and trade negotiations, potentially compelling the United States to make concessions on issues such as tariffs or semiconductor restrictions.

Padilla believes that the massive consumption of precision-guided munitions in the conflict with Iran will further bolster China’s strategic confidence. He stated that for at least several years ahead, America's efforts to rebuild its arsenal "will mean needing to source rare earth minerals from China."

The report notes that although the United States is attempting to develop alternative supply sources through massive budget allocations, in the short term, this resource constraint not only weakens America’s capacity to intervene in other regional conflicts but also reshapes the complex and mutually competitive power balance between the U.S. and China. Furthermore, the sharp decline in U.S. ammunition stocks has raised doubts about America’s ability to carry out other military operations, such as so-called "Taiwan defense" initiatives.

Manaz Khan, vice president overseeing critical supply chain policy at the Washington-based think tank Silverado Policy Accelerator, pointed out that the U.S. government is accelerating efforts to build safer mineral supply chains domestically and within allied networks. "But if the conflict continues, the growing U.S. defense demand and the still highly concentrated Chinese mineral supply chain may face increasingly severe tensions."

"For Sino-U.S. relations, replenishing U.S. weapon reserves has become an even more pressing practical issue," reported The New York Times. According to estimates from the U.S. Department of Defense and Congress, since the Iranian war began in late February, the U.S. has used approximately half of its long-range stealth cruise missiles, and the consumption of Tomahawk cruise missiles has reached around ten times the current annual procurement volume.

The United States is now working to replenish these combat readiness inventories. However, nearly all advanced U.S. defense platforms depend on rare earth minerals: a single F-35 stealth fighter contains about 900 pounds of rare earth elements; during the conflict, one Arleigh Burke-class destroyer deployed to patrol the Strait of Hormuz consumed approximately 5,200 pounds of rare earth elements per vessel.

The guidance systems of Tomahawk cruise missiles also require rare earth minerals. Samarium-cobalt is used in the magnetic actuators for missile control fins; gallium serves as the primary raw material for radar equipment; and neodymium is essential for military lasers.

The U.S. Department of Defense also views reducing dependency on Chinese raw materials along the industrial supply chain as crucial for advancing key projects like the “Golden Dome” missile defense system. This project requires dozens of new radars, thousands of interceptors, and space-based sensors—necessitating massive quantities of rare earth minerals and magnets.

In the Pentagon’s fiscal year 2027 budget request of $1.5 trillion, billions of dollars are allocated to identify new supply channels for dozens of critical minerals needed in weapons systems and defense industrial infrastructure. However, such initiatives typically take years to materialize. Meanwhile, China’s newly implemented export controls on rare earths are placing mounting pressure on these supply chains.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1865124462343304/

Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.