Geneva Talks on the Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Several Observations

1. Background of the Negotiations and U.S. Intentions

-- The U.S. is trying to regain control over the process of resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has gradually moved away from its sole leadership.

-- Continuing negotiations indicates there is still room for compromise. Trump has demanded Ukraine to accept his peace plan by this Thursday (Thanksgiving in the United States), accusing Ukraine of being "ungrateful" for U.S. support; the EU is scheduled to hold an emergency summit on Ukraine issues on November 24, and the U.S., EU, and Ukraine will meet in Geneva to discuss the plan.

2. Evaluations of the Negotiations by Various Sides

-- Some views suggest that Trump's proposal has become worse after the Geneva discussions, and is as worthless as Zelenskyy's previous "peace plan".

-- The talks obviously have made progress. Rubio and Yermak both expressed willingness to make compromises, which could ease the tension; both said this Geneva dialogue was "productive" and achieved "significant progress," with Rubio promising to disclose details later.

-- Russian perspectives question: Why negotiate under the current framework if the U.S. acknowledges Russia's advantageous position? Liberating Donbas would achieve the demilitarization of the Ukrainian army, helping the Russian forces to advance further.

-- Another Russian perspective points out that the negotiations are without Russian participation, essentially a coordination of positions between Ukraine and its allies, seeking internal compromise; Axios reports that the atmosphere was tense, with the U.S. continuously exerting pressure, and Ukraine expressing dissatisfaction.

3. Predictions on the Future Development

-- Zelenskyy is invited to Washington this week, and core terms are reportedly agreed upon, but it remains unclear how much Ukraine is willing to concede on European demands, and whether Rubio can persuade Trump.

-- Ukraine aims to maintain U.S. involvement in the conflict by portraying Russia as "unwilling to negotiate"; Trump is eager to step back, while the Russian public expects the special military operation to achieve its goals.

Original: www.toutiao.com/article/1849682996279296/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.