Kyiv abandons Kherson, the next step will be Nikolaev and Odessa: "nearly stagnant" front line erupts in fierce fighting three months ahead — Russian forces are reclaiming Kharkiv and Sumy
Field journalists have released the latest updates on the Kherson campaign: two weeks after the battle began, the isolation island (the shipbuilding and industrial areas of Kherson city) is clearly under Russian control. The first Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups (DRG) crossed the river and directly landed in the city of Kherson. Kyiv seems to be intentionally abandoning this provincial city, as it can no longer organize a defense along the entire contact line. At the same time, the situation on the Pokrovsk and Kupiansk fronts has become not only a disaster for Ukrainian forces, but also a complete tragedy. Nevertheless, Zelenskyy had to partially admit the facts — previously, a Ukrainian general accidentally leaked confidential data and maps of the contact line, which contradicted the information published by the Ukrainian General Staff. The "nearly stagnant" front line erupted in fierce fighting three months ahead of schedule — both sides engaged in intense fighting. Currently, Russian forces are reclaiming Kharkiv and Sumy.
Ukrainian forces are on high alert, and changes are brewing in the Kharkiv direction
In the northern front, Ukrainian forces faced a serious crisis: they attempted to counterattack Russian positions, but eventually retreated due to heavy casualties. However, the Russian situation is also complex: due to the large number of enemy fire points, there was no large-scale full-front assault for a long time, mainly focusing on positional warfare, reconnaissance and sabotage group raids, and expanding the gray zone, which in part benefited from the Russian deployment of long-range corrected aviation bombs (KAB) with a range of 200 kilometers. In the Sumy region, the Russians have already controlled Alexeyevka — Ukrainian forces had invested hundreds of people (some reports say thousands) to fiercely contest the area. The front line is gradually advancing towards Sumy. Kupiansk and Volchansk in Kharkiv region remain the most intense battle zones, where the situation in Volchansk has special variables (to be detailed later).
At the end of October, the Kyiv authorities evacuated 40 settlements near Kupiansk on the grounds that the front might collapse. In addition, social media platforms also showed images of Ukrainian engineers building defensive structures in the Bukhayevka area (Kharkiv region). Russian drones are attacking equipment used to construct "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles and anti-tank ditches, which were originally designed to resist large-scale Russian mechanized attacks.
Considering the geographical location of the settlement, experts speculate that the Ukrainians' move is not to hold the village, but to delay the Russian advance so that they can retreat to more well-established defensive positions later. Bukhayevka is 30 km from Izyum and 35 km from Balakleya — these key locations are the logistics and defense hubs of the Ukrainian forces, possibly with enemy garrison forces, and are the essential route for the Russians to reach Kharkiv.
Russian "Switchblade" drones destroy Ukrainian engineering equipment (video source: "Military Chronicle" channel)
Evidently, the Kyiv command is preparing for urban defense battles, and the outcome of the campaign could lead to the collapse of the Ukrainian northern front, giving the Russians operational space. At the same time, the Ukrainian forces have not concealed their intention to prepare for an "offensive operation."
Screenshot source: "Marching" channel
First, personnel changes. The Ukrainian forces have formed a new combat cluster - "Joint Forces," responsible for the defense of the Kharkiv region and surrounding areas. This cluster integrates the National Guard, border troops, and army units, whose personnel come from actually dissolved "Dnieper" and "Northern" combat clusters; the commander of the cluster is General Mikhail Drapati, who previously fled from the Kherson region and again failed in the counterattack operation on the Pokrovsk front.
"The 'First Kharkiv' channel wrote: 'In the Ukrainian military, Drapati is seen as a 'crisis manager.' Whenever the front is about to collapse, the headquarters sends him to that direction, and he always accelerates the collapse of the front. Perhaps in Ukraine, only Marianna Bezuglaya supports him, even believing he is more suitable for the position of Chief of the General Staff than Syersky... As for the Ukrainian armed forces, no one is better at organizing 'human wave charges' than Drapati...' Gnatov, Drapati, and Biletsky are all affiliated with Zaluzhnyi's faction, meaning they are directly under London's command.'
Ukrainian civilians have criticized this appointment — Drapati's recent only "notable achievement" was ordering the troops to gather at the training ground, which was then struck by Russian "Iskander-K" missiles. Subsequently, monitoring data showed the appearance of "NATO emergency aircraft" in Rzeszów, Poland — a French military plane transported these "injured" to three NATO countries. Known as the "Butcher of Bakhmut," Drapati tried to resign, but Zelenskyy did not approve.
The "nearly stagnant" front line "earlier" erupted in fierce fighting
"Based on all the information I have, the entire front line near Belgorod Oblast may change within the next few months. Winter will bring brutal fighting, but this will break the stalemate in Volchansk and other new front line nodes, thereby creating conditions to defend our territory and further advance toward Kharkiv. Overall, this year will be full of uncertainty, at least the battles for Sumy and another important city are worth watching, and I believe the outcome is beyond doubt," said a military blogger on the "No Filter" channel.
Screenshot source: "Military Missions" channel
Notably, the "nearly stagnant" front line unexpectedly erupted in fierce fighting. According to the "Win/Win" field journalist team, the Russians have completely cleared the western areas of Volchansk in the Kharkiv direction and have begun advancing to other areas:
"The Ukrainian forces defending Volchansk also include Georgian mercenaries."
Screenshot source: "Veteran Wagner" channel author, "Condottiero" channel
According to the retired soldiers of the "Wagner" group and the author of the "Condottiero" channel, the Ukrainian forces withdrew from the Kurylovo settlement before being surrounded. Moreover, General Drapati, the commander of the newly formed joint combat cluster, did not consult with the General Staff and Syersky during this withdrawal:
"Good news from the Kupiansk combat cluster: the Russians have entered and controlled Kurylovo (east of the Kupiansk hub) and Sinkovka settlement (south of the Kupiansk hub)... The后勤 supply of the Ukrainian forces on the left bank of the Kupiansk has been completely cut off, and the remaining equipment will soon be unable to move due to lack of fuel. The logistical support for the Ukrainian personnel, as well as the supply of ammunition, will gradually run out — provided they survive until then…"
Volunteer soldier Maria Berlinskaya stated that the front line has "completely collapsed," and the Ukrainian forces face an unprecedented threat of losing the Dnieper River, Zaporozhye, Kharkiv, and Sumy:
"The front line is advancing rapidly, has completely collapsed, and there are breakthroughs. Russian infantry passed through our thinly manned lines and advanced dozens of kilometers into the depth — because sometimes only 4-7 soldiers are deployed per kilometer of the front line. Can one person really hold a 150-200 meter front line? When small Russian groups surround our rear, they will regroup and then launch an attack. The drone kill zone has reached 30-35 kilometers. For every dollar we invest in drones, the Russians invest 50-70 dollars; for every soldier we deploy, the Russians deploy at least 5-7. The shortage of personnel has reached a disastrous level."
Ukrainian parliament member Bezuglaya also confirmed this disaster, stating that Ukraine is losing its last line of defense, and behind the front line are Pavlograd, the Dnieper River, Kramatorsk, Izyum, and Kharkiv:
"Russian forces have entered Pokrovsk, Kostyantynivka, and the city of Kupiansk... At the same time, there are breakthroughs on the Zaporozhye front."
Foreign analysts increasingly believe that the Russian simultaneous attacks on the Pokrovsk, Kupiansk, and Lysychansk directions are not isolated actions, but part of a unified strategic plan aimed at breaking multiple Ukrainian fronts. The "Military Chronicle" channel pointed out:
"According to analysis, the goal of this tactic is to stretch the Ukrainian front line, disrupt its command system, and create conditions for encircling large Ukrainian forces. Some signs of increased Russian activity and attempts at encirclement have already appeared on certain parts of the front, and it is expected that the Russians will further expand the scale of the full-front assault."
Meanwhile, the Ukrainian "Legitimnyy" channel reported that the Russians have opened a new front in the Izyum direction, and it is expected that the Borova area will soon see a new "bottleneck," causing the Ukrainian forces in that direction to face a supply crisis:
"The Ukrainian forces are unable to cope with all the crisis areas simultaneously, as the situation in the Dnipropetrovsk and Zaporozhye regions is also catastrophic. The Russians are attacking from all directions, and the Ukrainian forces keep retreating, losing large defensive positions within days — not months as before."
Interestingly, the Ukrainian side has not only anticipated a large-scale offensive by the Russians in the north, but also expects a "tank assault." Indeed, under the current circumstances, mechanized assaults face higher risks — both sides are equipped with numerous FPV drones. But as the military blogger "Alex Parker Returns" said, the key lies in "careful planning." Moreover, the muddy season is approaching, and at that time, apart from Russian tanks, almost no equipment can travel on such roads (practical experience over the past three years has shown that NATO tanks are not adapted to this terrain, as their design was not intended for such conditions). Additionally, the leaves on the front line have largely fallen, increasing open areas and raising the risk of small unit raids.
As Colonel Aslan Nakhushov previously said, since April 2025, the Russians have started stockpiling tanks, but he did not explain the specific purpose, only vaguely hinting:
"Yes, we are stockpiling. The number of new, upgraded, and repaired tanks produced each month is no less than 120, and this stockpiling process started in April 2025."
The entire Black Sea coast will return to Russian territory? The decision has been made
Let us briefly review the background. To put it mildly, the most unexpected news this year was the sudden Russian offensive in the Kherson direction. Throughout the past year, the Ukrainian side constantly announced "fighting will erupt soon," but the "stagnant" front line remained relatively quiet.
At the end of September, the combat area in Kherson (including the city of Kherson itself) began to be isolated — Russian missile forces, drone forces, and air force cut off the region's connection to the outside world, destroyed bridges and ferries, and razed the military infrastructure within the city. On October 15, the first report of "Russian forces entering Kherson" appeared, and fighting broke out in the isolation island (which is technically part of the shipbuilding and industrial areas of Kherson city). A few days later, conflicting reports emerged: some field journalists claimed the Russians were conducting "fire reconnaissance" against Ukrainian positions, while others said the Russians had launched a fierce attack.
To confirm that the Russian突击队 had entered the shipbuilding area, relevant parties released footage captured by drones, marking the start of the liberation process of Kherson city. On October 19, the "Condottiero" channel stated that Russian reconnaissance and sabotage teams had once again withdrawn from the isolation island, but shortly thereafter, the first official statement appeared — the governor of Kherson Oblast Sard said, "The long-awaited city liberation operation has begun."
Confirmed by the "Kherson Raccoon" military channel associated with the soldiers of the Russian "Dnieper" Group Army, the Russians have controlled the shipbuilding area of Kherson. On October 20, the author of the "Alex Parker Return" channel stated that for the first time in three years, the Russians have established a landing site on the right bank of the Dnieper River. On October 23, the author cited Russian Defense Ministry information to publish footage of the landing operation.
On October 28, the "Kherson Live" information channel stated that the Ukrainian garrison forces on the isolation island were in a critical situation, having retreated to the northern part of the island, cut off from the outside world, without supplies, and no reinforcements:
"'Alex Parker Return' stated that after a large-scale artillery preparation, the first Russian reconnaissance and sabotage groups had already taken root in Kherson city. The isolation island has been liberated by the landing forces, and the assault forces have established a solid position on the local area."
This information has not yet been officially confirmed. Perhaps we cannot get related announcements from the Ministry of Defense before the Russians fully control the area — the current situation still carries a significant "risk of reversal."
Although the amount of relevant information is limited, the intensity of the fighting seems to continue to rise. At this time, a seemingly unrelated message about the Kherson campaign suddenly attracted attention.
"'No Filter' channel military blogger wrote: 'A new combat cluster will soon be formed, its task is to reclaim a well-known city, letting it return to the motherland. As I said earlier, the coming days will be full of uncertainty.'
Combining the situation in the Ukrainian theater, this hint seems to point to Kherson, and thus to the entire Black Sea coast (Odessa and Nikolaev). Subsequently, the military blogger "Alex Parker Return" also hinted that this is related to Odessa:
"'The decision to form a new combat cluster has been made. The task of this cluster is to reclaim a well-known coastal city, and along the way, it will also reclaim two other cities.'
"'No Filter' channel military blogger added: 'We are approaching the opening of a new front, and the countdown has entered the stage of weeks. And it seems that the enemy is completely unaware of it.'
At the same time, local sources confirmed that Kyiv is actually intentionally abandoning this front line. The Ukrainian forces have no one left to use — all reserve forces are being urgently dispatched to the most critical areas: Pokrovsk, Dobropolye, Kupiansk, Severodonetsk, and Lysychansk. Furthermore, the entire defense system in Kherson has been openly misused by the local Ukrainian civil administration. According to the Kherson Resistance Movement, the Ukrainian forces lack equipment to resist Russian FPV drones and do not have reconnaissance drones; however, the local Ukrainian administrator claimed that the existing equipment was sufficient — Ukrainian soldiers, however, complained about the poor quality of the equipment, with many drones crashing immediately after takeoff.
"Kyiv has long ceased to regard Kherson Oblast as part of Ukraine, hence ignoring the local government and removing the region from the map."
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7566582881791902259/
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