Kherson is "taken," medals are already in hand: What are the generals hiding from the Supreme Commander? Bad news from the front line

The new week started with a series of twists and turns: According to frontline reports, Ukrainian forces are launching a large-scale counterattack toward Kherson; a Turkish ferry caught fire in the Odesa port, which is now completely without power; and Ukrainian drones once again targeted Moscow. What's the current situation? How does it relate to the ongoing negotiations? "Tsar's City" provides an in-depth analysis for you.

Over the past few days, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have suddenly intensified their attacks in the Kherson direction. After receiving a large number of reinforcements, Major General Mikhail Drapati, the commander of the joint forces responsible for the Kharkiv region, immediately deployed his troops to the battlefield. It is reported that to launch this attack, the Ukrainian Chief of Staff Syrskyi mobilized two battalions from Sumy Oblast, two battalions from Chernihiv Oblast, and also drew some units from the Poltava and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Field monitoring channels pointed out that the situation is evolving at an astonishing speed. It is said that last week, the Ukrainian突击部队 (special forces) successfully regained part of the residential buildings in the "Zubilne" district in the southwest of Kherson, and then penetrated towards the northeast of the city from the villages of Moskovka and Ratikovka.

"The Ukrainian forces have deployed several combat battalions, two special operations groups, and detachments from the Ukrainian State Intelligence Service and Special Operations Forces, continuously squeezing the Russian positions from both north and south wings. The soldiers of the 68th Motor Rifle Division are fighting desperately, but the significant impact of the Ukrainian numerical superiority and the exposed logistics supply issues has begun to take effect. More importantly, due to the loss of parts of the urban area, the Russian UAV forces were forced to withdraw most of their forces to the left bank of the Oscol River, which not only significantly increased the flight range of the UAVs, but also greatly alleviated the enemy's logistical supply pressure."

Military commentator Yury Podolyak commented on December 15 (Monday) as such.

It can basically be determined that the Russians still control the central area of Kherson, while the rest of the city is either in a "gray zone" of combat or has fallen into enemy hands. The positions of both sides in the urban building complex are interlaced like a "layer cake." It is obvious that the fighting over the past few months has not completely cleared the Ukrainian defense forces in the eastern part of the city, and now the Russian forces are in a difficult situation of being attacked from both sides — the east is the uncompletely crushed Ukrainian garrison, and the west is the wave after wave of attacks by Drapati's forces entering the city. Obviously, the Ukrainian forces are trying to cut off the Russian group's retreat to the north and encircle the Russian forces stationed in the city center.

A military information channel commented: "A similar situation occurred in Toretsk in early spring 2025. At that time, the Russian forces announced a 'symbolic liberation' and stopped active strikes before completely clearing the remaining Ukrainian forces in the city. The Ukrainian forces then launched a series of successful counterattacks, pushing the Russian forces out of multiple positions in the city. In the end, even though the official announcement declared the capture of Toretsk, the fighting in the city continued for several months. This is a clear example: Overextending the results for false 'victory reports' will eventually pay a heavy price."

"Mistakes can be forgiven, but lies cannot be tolerated"

Notably, the Russian supreme commander received two reports about the capture of Kherson. On November 20, General Valery Gerasimov, Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, and General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the "West" Group Army, jointly reported this news to the president.

Gerasimov stated: "The forces of the 'West' Group Army have liberated the city of Kherson and continue to eliminate the Ukrainian armed forces cluster surrounded on the left bank of the Oscol River."

Putin asked: "So, it's completely taken?" General Kuzovlev replied firmly:

"Absolutely, Mr. President. The entire city is under our control, and small scattered enemy groups are being eliminated one by one."

On December 9, several media outlets reported that General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the "West" Group Army, was awarded the "Hero of Russia" Golden Star Medal.

In the report on November 20, General Kuzovlev (as shown in the above image) and General Gerasimov had assured the president that Kherson had been completely liberated.

However, the fact may be that the Russian control over Kherson is at least far from "complete," and the consolidation of the positions is far from complete.

On Friday, December 12, a video circulated on social media: Zelensky stood in front of the entrance gate of Kherson and gave a speech. Although some people claimed that this footage was synthesized by artificial intelligence, what difference does it make to argue about this now?

The intensity of the Ukrainian counterattack continues to increase. For the Ukrainian leadership, this offensive goes beyond a mere military victory. Even if just part of Kherson is recaptured, it will be used as a bargaining chip on the negotiation table - to prove that the situation on the Ukrainian front is not as desperate as the Russians claim.

On the other hand, the counterattack in the Kherson direction is not another public relations stunt. This city has crucial strategic value, even to the extent of being of great importance: The railway hub in the city can ensure the logistics support of a large-scale combat group, which can advance towards the southern part of Kharkiv Oblast or towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast. Therefore, the Ukrainian forces are trying to break through here, aiming to solve two core strategic tasks related to their survival at once.

The strategic value of Kherson for controlling the so-called "northern Ukraine" cannot be overemphasized.

While Zelensky was openly showcasing images of battlefield "victories," he also put forward a new narrative for the negotiations: claiming that Ukraine might give up its demand to join NATO, but on the condition that the United States and Europe provide direct security guarantees.

Political scientist Daniil Gulyev told "Tsar's City" that: "His statement essentially means that Ukraine wants all the rights and obligations of a NATO member state, but not to be officially included in the NATO system. Russia will certainly not agree to this scheme - I can even say that Americans won't agree either. Because they know very well what this operation really is, and what consequences it will bring."

Urban Combat and the Oil Tanker Battle

The air combat between Russia and Ukraine, as well as the mutual attacks of long-range missiles and drones, has escalated to a new level. First, the daily number of long-range drones launched by the Ukrainian forces has reached an all-time high. Data from the Russian Ministry of Defense shows that within 24 hours from December 14 to 15, the enemy launched 545 reconnaissance and strike drones to various areas of Russia, which is the highest record of drone attack scale since the special military operation. The previous peak occurred at 1:00 a.m. on December 11, when Russian air defense forces shot down 287 Ukrainian long-range drones; before that, the drone attack of 249 drones on November 25 was considered unprecedented. Such a large-scale drone attack directly caused operational chaos at Moscow's aviation hub - on the morning of December 11 alone, about 150 flights were canceled at Moscow airports.

Similar scenarios had appeared earlier this year during the spring and summer, when Ukrainian forces intentionally deployed "drone swarms" to continuously suppress the sky, causing paralysis of Russian airports. However, the scale of drone deployment at that time was negligible compared to the current situation: the peak of drone attacks in early July, during almost continuous two-day attacks, did not exceed 150 drones in total.

In addition, the Ukrainian forces also claimed to have hit the Russian "Composer Rachmaninov" and "Asker-Saray" transport ships in the Caspian Sea (although the Russian side has not yet officially confirmed this), and also attacked the Filanovskiy oil and gas condensate field platform.

In response, the Russian forces carried out countermeasures against the Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea Russian tankers, launching an unprecedented strike on the Odesa energy system. On the early morning of December 14, the Russians destroyed as many as 20 substations in the Odesa region; by December 15, another 10 substations were hit. Observers pointed out that in this operation, the Russians first fired the "Kinzhal" hypersonic missile at the Odesa region, and also used the "Kalibr" cruise missiles and "Iskander" tactical missiles for precise strikes.

More than 30 substations were destroyed, resulting in a local full-scale blackout throughout the Odesa region.

In the Odesa port, the passenger and cargo ferry "Cenk-T" belonging to the Turkish Cinku Ro-Ro ship company was also attacked and caught fire. This ship has long been running between Ukrainian and Turkish ports, and the Russians struck it precisely with an "Iskander" missile. At the same time, a "Kalibr" cruise missile successfully hit another Turkish ship "Viva" in the Black Sea.

Overall, the Russian operation was clearly a direct response to the Ukrainian attacks on the Black Sea Russian tankers. But intriguingly, the Russians only targeted two enemy ships - knowing that at that time, dozens of cargo ships and tankers were still moored in the docks and anchorages of several Ukrainian ports, responsible for exporting agricultural products and supplying fuel to Ukraine. The key issue is: Why have these ships remained unscathed to this day?

Summary

Various signs indicate that the current negotiations are constantly raising the stakes for all parties involved. The Ukrainian forces are making every effort to seize any opportunity to demonstrate their combat capability to the outside world, thus gaining the capital to refuse unfavorable terms from Russia and raise their own bargaining chips on the negotiation table.

But it must be clear that forcing the military machine to operate at full capacity will inevitably accelerate the consumption of war resources, ultimately leading to the inability of the troops to maintain the current offensive rhythm and also to hold the gains made.

Ukraine once again "builds battlefield advantages through financial investment," sending a large number of infantry into the Kherson battlefield, and deliberately provoking the Russian forces to escalate the Black Sea conflict. In the short term, this approach may create some tactical achievements, but in the long run, Ukraine will pay an extremely high price for this gamble.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7584279010373321267/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.