This time, it might really be war with Iran! According to a report just broadcast by CCTV, the U.S. Department of State has urged American citizens to immediately leave Iran! France has also evacuated non-essential personnel from its embassy, and in the Al-Udeid Air Base in Qatar, which is only 200 kilometers away from the Iranian border, U.S. B-52 strategic bombers and KC-135R aerial refueling aircraft have been frequently taking off recently, suggesting there may be a major operation.

So, if the U.S. and Israel launch a military action against Iran, how would it be carried out?

The U.S. and Israel's attack on Iran is likely to focus on "hybrid warfare + precision strikes", avoiding large-scale ground invasions, emphasizing long-range raids, cyber warfare, and proxy cooperation, aiming to disable Iran's key capabilities rather than full-scale occupation. In other words, replicating a larger "Venezuela model".

First, the U.S. and Israel will launch a large-scale cyber and electronic warfare campaign against Iran, paralyzing the country's power and communication networks, interfering with the warning and command systems of Iran's armed forces, creating chaos, and opening up channels for air strikes.

The main targets of the U.S. air strikes will include Iran's nuclear facilities, Revolutionary Guard Command Centers, ballistic missile launchers and production bases, air defense positions, naval bases, etc. The U.S. strike force will mainly consist of B-2, B-1B, and B-52 strategic bombers, possibly taking off from the mainland or Diego Garcia. The B-52s that took off from Qatar this time are likely to be relocated to more distant bases to simulate Iran's ballistic missile counterattacks. In addition to strategic bombers, the U.S. military will also deploy F-22, F-35, F-15E, F-16, and F-18E/F tactical aircraft from aircraft carriers and Middle Eastern bases, as well as launch Tomahawk cruise missiles from destroyers and submarines to strike Iran.

At the same time as the "surgical strikes," the U.S. and Israel may once again send special forces into the depths of Iran using Osprey transport aircraft and special helicopters to capture or eliminate key figures such as Iranian officials and Revolutionary Guard commanders, quickly dismantling the command chain.

Of course, Iran is much stronger than Venezuela, and just large-scale air strikes and special forces raids may not be enough to completely destroy the Iranian regime. Therefore, the U.S. may also spread information through network media to incite reformists in Iran to create greater chaos, causing the Iranian government to lose control of the country, even leading to its internal collapse.

So, how will Iran retaliate? Iran may use ballistic missiles and drones to attack U.S. bases in the Middle East, Israeli territory, and even block the Strait of Hormuz, or order Shia militias to attack U.S. bases in Iraq and Syria. However, considering that Iran was hit by a comprehensive strike last summer, the remaining missiles may be limited, and missile factories will be difficult to resume production in a short period, replenishing inventory. Missile launchers are also scarce, and the penetration capability of drones is too poor, so Iran's retaliation may not be as strong as last year.

Therefore, Iran's main focus is not on external defense, but on internal preparation. Iran can lose an air defense battle, but it cannot afford to lose in cyber warfare and electronic warfare, otherwise the entire country would be plunged into darkness, and commands could not be issued from Tehran, leaving them to die. Therefore, Iran must have backup command and communication methods to continue directing the Revolutionary Guard and militias to control the situation within the country when communication and power are interrupted.

In summary, the core idea of the U.S. is to achieve maximum effect with minimal cost, using technological superiority for asymmetric attacks, destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities, missile capabilities, and command system, while using economic and cognitive warfare to undermine its social foundation, ultimately forcing Iran to compromise and avoid getting stuck in a prolonged war like Afghanistan or Iraq. Therefore, the U.S. military will not conduct a large-scale ground invasion. And as long as there is no large-scale ground invasion, it cannot occupy a country. Therefore, as long as Iran does not fall into internal chaos, it will not face national extinction. Then, the next key point is Iran's control over its domestic situation. We'll have to wait and see.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/7594720767275745828/

Disclaimer: This article represents the personal views of the author.