【Wen / Observers Network, Yuan Jiaqi】

At the end of the year and the beginning of the new year, the situation in Iran has once again plunged into turmoil. Large-scale demonstrations have swept across half of the provinces in the country, protesting severe inflation and currency depreciation. US President Trump seized the opportunity to make threats, saying that the United States is "loading bullets," warning the Iranian regime not to harm so-called "peaceful protesters," and openly supporting opposition forces within Iran.

This Monday (12th), Trump turned his attention again to Iran, posting on his social media platform "Truth Social" that starting from now, a 25% tax will be imposed on all trade partners of Iran, and emphasized that this decision is "final and irrevocable."

Trump did not clearly define the specific scope of "business relations with Iran," which immediately raised many questions, including the specific implementation path of the additional tariffs, the target countries, and whether the tax applies to service trade rather than just goods trade... As for the details of this tariff policy and the government's implementation plan, the White House refused to disclose any further information.

The Financial Times reported on the 12th that the immediate tax measures taken by the United States may affect China, India, and other countries. Data shows that in addition to its largest trading partner China, India, Turkey, Pakistan, UAE, Brazil, and Iraq are also among Iran's major trading partners. Russia also signed a new free trade agreement with Iran in 2025 to boost bilateral trade volume.

The report cited statistics from a customs data collection agency indicating that in the first half of 2025, more than 100 countries had varying degrees of trade relations with Iran, all of which could be affected by this tariff policy. However, due to the strict sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran, commercial ties between Iran and many countries have already significantly declined.

American cable news network CNN also pointed out that Trump's remarks mean that China, as a major trading partner of both Iran and the US, may see a significant increase in the import costs of its goods to the US.

The report mentioned that after the summit between Chinese and US leaders in Busan last year, the two countries reached a phased "truce" in their trade disputes, agreeing to continue extending certain tariff exclusion measures. The Wall Street Journal expressed concern that the move to impose tariffs on Iran's trade partners could undermine the trade truce agreement reached by the Trump administration with China.

In response to similar issues, China has repeatedly made its position clear. China has always opposed illegal unilateral sanctions, and its normal economic and energy cooperation with other countries does not target third parties and should not be subject to any interference or restrictions. The U.S. approach is a typical example of unilateral bullying and economic coercion, seriously violating international trade rules; if China's legitimate rights and interests are harmed, it will resolutely counteract and oppose the U.S. for imposing illegal unilateral sanctions and "long-arm jurisdiction" on China.

The political website "Politico" mentioned that earlier last year, Trump had threatened to impose a 25% so-called "punitive" tariff on all countries purchasing Russian oil, but so far, only India has been subjected to this measure, leading to an overall tariff rate on Indian goods imported to the U.S. rising to 50%.

US-India tariff trade negotiations have been delayed for a long time. The Indian Ministry of Foreign Affairs said last week that both sides have held multiple rounds of consultations to strive for a "balanced and mutually beneficial" trade agreement. Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry Piyush Goyal had previously made a strong statement, saying that India would not yield to U.S. trade pressure, "would not hastily reach an agreement, nor accept agreements with strict deadlines or coercive nature."

The Wall Street Journal added that the tariff increase measures may also affect the trade and oil development cooperation agreement signed by the Trump administration with Pakistan last year.

Trump responding to questions about Iran while aboard Air Force One. AP video screenshot

The Financial Times report points out that the day before announcing the tax on Iran's trade partners, Trump claimed he was considering military action against Iran. He solemnly stated that the way Iran is handling domestic protests is gradually touching the "red line" he has set for military action.

On Sunday, while aboard Air Force One, when asked if he was considering military intervention, Trump responded that the military "is assessing the situation, and we are also considering a series of strong countermeasures."

Just over a week ago, the U.S. launched an air strike on Caracas and forcibly detained Venezuelan leader Maduro and his wife. The report believes that this bold move has already confirmed that Trump is willing to use American military power to achieve foreign policy goals.

Iran accuses the U.S. and Israel of being the masterminds behind the internal unrest. The Iranian Supreme National Security Council recently issued a statement saying that this protest has evolved into a threat to national security under the planning and control of the U.S. and Israel. Trump's recent statements also indicate that the U.S. and Israel are jointly plotting incidents, aiming to plunge the Iranian people into chaos.

Iranian Speaker Qalibaf said on the 11th that if the U.S. attacks Iran, Iran will regard Israeli and U.S. military bases in the Middle East as "legitimate targets" for retaliation.

At the regular press conference of the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs on January 12, a foreign reporter asked about Trump's statement that if Iran uses lethal force against foreign demonstrators, he might attack Iran. What is China's comment on this?

Spokesperson Mao Ning responded that China hopes the Iranian government and people can overcome the current difficulties and maintain national stability. We have always opposed interfering in the internal affairs of other countries, and we have always advocated that the sovereignty and security of all countries should be fully protected by international law, opposing the use of force or the threat of using force in international relations. We call on all parties to do more things that contribute to peace and stability in the Middle East.

According to the Wall Street Journal, while Trump issued tariff threats against Iran's trade partners, the U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing a key issue: whether the series of tariff increases implemented by Trump after taking office, bypassing Congress and issuing executive orders, exceed his legal authority.

The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to make a ruling as early as Wednesday. Trump posted on the social media platform on the 12th that if the Supreme Court makes any "unfavorable" tariff ruling for the U.S., the U.S. would face billions of dollars in compensation.

He also said that this number does not include the "repayment" costs required by the government and related companies for building factories and investing in equipment; if these costs are added together, the total could reach tens of billions of dollars.

"This will be a disaster, our country would almost certainly be unable to afford the costs," he wrote, "If the Supreme Court makes an unfavorable ruling on this national security wealth, we are doomed!"

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Original: toutiao.com/article/7594644406590784026/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.