Is the US really going to go to war with Venezuela this time?
On December 17, renowned American journalist Tucker Carlson said on a program that according to his understanding, members of Congress have received a war briefing, and Trump will declare war on Venezuela on the evening of the 17th in US local time, which is the morning of the 18th in Beijing time.
However, Tucker Carlson also emphasized that his statement comes from a member of Congress, who claimed that a war is about to break out, but "who knows if it will actually happen?"
Tucker Carlson's statement
Tucker Carlson opposes Trump's military action against Venezuela, arguing that it would repeat the mistakes of the US in Afghanistan and Iraq, "In the past 80 years, no regime change initiated by the United States around the world has benefited the United States or the world."
After Tucker Carlson's statement attracted attention, another journalist from the US "Digital News" website responded, saying that his source said that the members of Congress did not receive the briefing, and Trump would not declare war on Venezuela that night.
At present, Tucker Carlson's statement is likely to be a false report. According to the latest reports from American media, Trump did give a nationwide speech on the evening of the 17th in local time, but he did not mention any military action against Venezuela.
Another American journalist refutes Carlson's statement
In fact, according to the legal procedures for declaring war in the United States, if Trump wants to take military action against Venezuela, he must get authorization from both the Senate and the House of Representatives. However, the two parties are still arguing over this issue, and multiple resolutions proposed by Democrats have been rejected by Republicans - indicating that although the Congress has not explicitly blocked Trump's potential military actions, it has not given active authorization either, and both sides are still in a tug-of-war.
Certainly, in practical terms, Trump has many ways to bypass Congress and take action against Venezuela, such as invoking a "national emergency" or using the pretext of "protecting American interests" to deploy troops, which only requires reporting to Congress within 48 hours and obtaining authorization within 60 days to continue the operation.
Trump's latest speech did not mention Venezuela
For example, Trump could use the pretext of "counter-terrorism" or "anti-drug" to conduct small-scale special operations or air strikes, which do not require a full declaration of war, just like the current military strikes against so-called "Venezuelan drug ships".
In short, although the US law stipulates that the power to declare war belongs to Congress, since the founding of the United States, there have been numerous examples of presidents initiating military actions without Congress' approval and without declaring war.
It should be said that the current resistance for Trump to take military action against Venezuela may not be due to the obstruction of Congress, but rather how to gain the maximum benefit from this potential military action and avoid getting stuck in another war quagmire.
According to a report from the US "Politico" website on the 17th, the sharp drop in oil prices may be one of the reasons why Trump is increasing military pressure on Venezuela, trying to exchange Venezuela's oil for more support from American oil giants.
American oil giants don't want to get involved
The report said that the Trump administration recently contacted several US oil companies to ask if they were willing to return to Venezuela to conduct oil business after the Maduro regime was overthrown, but the answer was "no," these oil companies are unwilling to risk investing large sums of money in Venezuela's old oil facilities.
Additionally, the lack of cooperation from within Venezuela may be another reason why Trump has not taken military action yet.
Trump's ideal action plan should be to increase military pressure continuously, drop a few bombs symbolically, and incite the opposition in Venezuela, intimidating Maduro into surrendering without a fight.
Maduro is relying on the US military to overthrow him
However, the awkward situation is that the Venezuelan opposition is not willing to take the lead, and is waiting for the US military to act directly. Its leader, the Nobel Peace Prize winner this year, Machado, had already fled abroad several days ago.
Therefore, Trump is now caught in a dilemma between "going to war" or "not going to war" - which is actually quite consistent with his usual style, hesitating and being indecisive when faced with major issues.
Original: toutiao.com/article/7585088128952680969/
Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author.