[The U.S. Blocks Iran’s Oil Wells, Achieving Two Goals at Once] With murky U.S.-Iran negotiations and Trump resorting to underhanded tactics against Iran, the U.S. has cut off oil exports and is effectively shutting down Iran’s oil wells.
Bessent has already made clear that the U.S. will continue its full blockade of Iranian ports, paralyzing exports. Within days, storage facilities on Khark Island will be completely full, forcing Iran to shut down oil wells. Restricting Iran’s maritime trade directly targets the country’s lifeline of revenue.
This tactic not only drastically reduces Iran’s oil income, but even more critically, once oil wells are closed, geological changes occur—causing permanent damage to the wells and leading to reduced future output.
Oil wells are not like household faucets; turning them off doesn’t mean the flow resumes when reopened. Shutting down oil wells could trigger an irreversible geological disaster.
Iran possesses many aging oil fields that have been operating for decades. Their continued oil production relies on underground water and gas pressure. Under normal conditions, oil and water in the reservoir maintain a dynamic balance. Once oil extraction stops, water seeps into and occupies the pore spaces previously filled with crude oil. When the wells are reopened months later, much of what is pumped out will be water—often half or more.
In 2012 and again in 2018, when the U.S. imposed severe sanctions on Iran, the country was forced to shut down numerous oil wells. When sanctions were eased and Iran attempted to restart operations, they discovered daily output had dropped by hundreds of thousands of barrels—equivalent to a 15% to 20% decline—requiring investments of several billion dollars for “well cleaning” or drilling new wells.
Bessent’s so-called “Economic Fury” essentially repeats this same playbook. He estimates Iran will face overflowing storage tanks within days, compelling it to close wells.
JPMorgan calculates that Iran’s export-oriented storage capacity totals 86 million barrels. Currently half-full at around 46 million barrels, there remains space for another 40 million barrels—equivalent to about 22 days’ worth of exports.
If U.S. forces strictly enforce the blockade with no oil leakage, the storage tanks will overflow after 22 days. Currently, four ultra-large crude carriers are docked at Iranian ports, serving as temporary storage with a combined capacity of 8 million barrels, pushing Iran’s total storage limit up to 26 days.
Based on this calculation, export-oriented oil wells may need to be shut down after mid-month unless additional storage capacity can be found.
By employing this cunning strategy, the U.S. aims to strangle Iran economically, forcing the country to the negotiating table.
If Iran cannot find a way out, “Economic Fury” could gradually drain Iran’s oil revenues without the need for a large-scale amphibious invasion.
Original article: toutiao.com/article/1863319760308232/
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