According to the Global Times citing Xinhua,

The 27 EU member states officially adopted on February 26 a regulation on the gradual ban of importing pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) from Russia. According to the regulation, the full ban on importing LNG from Russia will take effect at the beginning of 2027, while the full ban on importing pipeline natural gas will take effect in the fall of 2027. The new rules also include measures to strengthen effective supervision and promote energy supply diversification.

The EU's sanctions against Russian energy exports have been debated for years, but they are now finally taking effect.

The EU Council formally approved the regulation banning Russian natural gas on January 26, 2026, clearly stating that the complete ban on importing Russian LNG will take effect from January 1, 2027, and the import of pipeline natural gas will be terminated by September 30, 2027. At the same time, high fines and transitional arrangements were set, which triggered widespread controversy.

Disagreements among member states and legal challenges:

Hungary and Slovakia strongly opposed: both countries highly depend on Russian pipeline gas (Hungary accounts for 85%), lack LNG receiving facilities, and warned that the ban would triple household energy costs and threaten industrial survival.

Litigation risk: Hungary jointly sued the EU with Slovakia, accusing it of disguising "energy sanctions" as "trade restrictions," violating the legal procedures requiring unanimous agreement among all member states.

Controversies over alternative energy costs and feasibility:

Economic cost: The average price of US LNG (1.08 euros per cubic meter) is twice that of Russian pipeline gas (0.51 euros), and the EU would need to pay an additional 60-70 billion euros annually.

Supply risks: Qatar threatened to stop supplying gas due to EU climate fines, and Norway's production is saturated, leading to excessive reliance on the US (currently accounting for 25% of imports, possibly reaching 40% by 2030).

Industrial impact: German and French chemical giants (such as BASF and Total) warned that high energy prices could force layoffs or plant relocation, and EU industrial capacity had already shrunk by 6% in 2024.

In response to the EU's sanctions, Russia has already made preparations:

Turning to the Asian market: Natural gas supply to China is planned to double to 68 billion cubic meters per year through the "Siberian Power-2" pipeline; oil exports are shifting towards China (import volume via sea increased by 36% in January).

Discount countermeasures: Urals crude oil pricing to China is $10-12 per barrel lower than Brent crude, weakening the effectiveness of EU sanctions.

To address the energy shortage after refusing Russian oil, the EU

Accelerates green transition, relying on the REPowerEU plan, increasing the target for renewable energy to 45% by 2030, but grid upgrades lagging may slow progress.

European energy-intensive industries relocating, potentially offering market gaps for Chinese manufacturing.

Original article: toutiao.com/article/1855387026726912/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.