Iran has released an "economic nuclear bomb," sending a direct warning that immediately triggered the global energy market. Japan was the first to become restless and took immediate action, followed by 32 countries starting preparations. At this critical moment, China remained completely silent.

Merchant ships trapped near the Hormuz Strait

Recently, after three merchant ships were attacked, the Iranian military spokesperson addressed the United States, issuing a warning to the world as well, advising them to prepare for oil prices to surge to $200 per barrel. This statement caused an immediate reaction in the global energy market. On the same day, crude oil futures prices soared to nearly $120, although they later dropped slightly, the panic had already spread.

The fastest response came from Japan. On March 11, Japanese Prime Minister Takahashi Asako officially announced that Japan would release its national oil reserves as early as next Monday. Japan being the first to act was expected, as a small country with limited resources and high dependence on imports, the blockade of the Hormuz Strait is a matter of life or death for Japan.

It is worth noting that one of the three attacked ships belonged to a Japanese company. As an ally of the United States, it was inevitable that it would be targeted. Japan was genuinely panicked this time. According to the announced plan, Japan will release about 80 million barrels of oil, equivalent to one-fifth of its national reserves.

Oil reserve tanks

It is understood that this will be Japan's third time mobilizing its oil reserves and the first time it has initiated the release process ahead of an International Energy Agency (IEA) coordinated decision. The core reason is simple—Japan cannot wait any longer. After Japan officially announced its move, the IEA also stated that all 32 member countries unanimously agreed to release 400 million barrels of oil reserves, which is the largest scale in history.

Of this, the United States accounted for the largest share, deciding to release 172 million barrels. Regarding the timing of the release, besides Japan taking the lead, other member states have not yet announced specific dates. It is worth noting that the global market did not celebrate this news. Why? Because what truly determines the price of oil is not how much each country has in reserves, but how much is actually put into the market every day.

Executive Director of the International Energy Agency, Fatih Birol

If the Hormuz Strait remains blocked for a long time, can the release of reserves fill the gap? Data shows that it is impossible. Even if all 400 million barrels are released, it would be like trying to put out a fire with a bucket of water. Therefore, the real significance of releasing 400 million barrels of reserves is not to "solve the problem," but to "buy time" for the market to wait for the Hormuz Strait to resume navigation. However, if the strait remains closed, releasing more reserves would be useless.

At the very moment when 32 countries collectively "released oil to save the market," one country remained calm, that is China. Up to now, China has not made any decision regarding the release of its oil reserves. The Foreign Ministry previously stated that it would take measures when necessary to ensure its own energy security. China is not an IEA member, so there is no need to follow the Western rhythm.

Mines in the Hormuz Strait

China has not taken action yet, partly because its reliance on the Hormuz Strait is not as high. Another reason is that China has one of the world's largest strategic oil reserves. Even if all oil imports from the Middle East were completely cut off, these reserves could cover about six months of supply. Six months is enough for many changes to occur in the situation.

Will releasing 400 million barrels of reserves hold down the oil price? It can, but the effect is limited. It would be better to keep it for the real crisis. When the US and Israel attacked Iran, the US's allies raised their voices louder than ever. Now, as the oil price threatens to crash, they are all falling quickly. As long as the conflict in the Middle East continues, this farce will not end.

Original: toutiao.com/article/7616251053869023778/

Statement: This article represents the views of the author.