【Text by Observer Net Columnist Shen Yi】
As the saying goes, "The tree wishes to be still, but the wind will not stop." While Sino-US trade negotiations have continued to make progress from Geneva to Madrid, interference and uncertainty from other directions have added more complex factors to this game. According to Xinhua News Agency, on September 25, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce announced that it would launch a trade and investment barrier investigation into relevant measures taken by Mexico against China starting from September 25, 2025.
According to the announcement, the measures under investigation are: the Mexican government's proposed measures to increase import tariffs on products from non-free trade partners, including China. These include categories such as automobiles and parts, textiles, clothing, plastics, steel, home appliances, aluminum, toys, furniture, footwear, leather goods, paper and paperboard, motorcycles, and glass. In addition, other trade and investment restrictions taken by Mexico in recent years involving China are also within the scope of this investigation.
The background of this announcement is a series of measures taken by the Mexican government against Chinese export products. Particularly in early September, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced a tariff reform proposal as part of her so-called "Plan Mexico" industrial policy, aiming to increase import tariffs on a large number of goods from countries that have not signed a free trade agreement with Mexico, and China will be most affected. This proposal covers about 1,400 tax items (16.8% of all Mexican tax items), involving many industries such as automobiles, parts, steel, textiles, and toys. The tariff rates will be increased to different levels such as 10%, 20%, 25%, 30%, 35%, and 50%. According to data released by the Mexican Ministry of Economy, these tax increases affect an import volume of approximately $52 billion, accounting for 8.6% of Mexico's total imports. This move can be considered the largest structural adjustment in Mexico's import system in recent years.
President of Mexico Claudia Sheinbaum
Although the Mexican government claims that this move aims to support its domestic manufacturing and protect 325,000 jobs that may be impacted, it is clear to everyone that this measure is clearly discriminatory and targeted. It targets countries that have not signed a free trade agreement with Mexico, while the US and Canada, Mexico's main trading partners, are exempted. Observers from various sides point out that this indicates that Mexico's move is largely aimed at catering to Washington's wishes, seen as a friendly gesture towards the United States. In other words, this policy means that the Mexican government hopes to gain concessions from the US on trade negotiations and other issues by showing favor to the US.
This is not the only move. Since 2025, Mexico has made multiple moves. In January, it imposed temporary tariffs on certain textile products; in March, it expanded tariff and import restrictions on goods; in April, it extended the aforementioned measures and expanded them to plastic and steel sectors; in August, it raised the import tariff on low-cost small packages from non-free trade partner countries from 19% to 33.5% (mainly affecting Chinese e-commerce products). In September, it imposed final anti-dumping duties on Chinese footwear products and introduced the aforementioned high-tariff proposal against China.
Regarding Mexico's actions, China's response is rational, moderate, and systematic.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry and Ministry of Commerce have repeatedly issued statements opposing Mexico's discriminatory trade measures under pressure from others. A spokesperson for the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated, "China firmly opposes imposing restrictions on China under the coercion of others, under various pretexts, which damage China's legitimate rights and interests. We believe that the relevant country will adhere to independence and properly handle the related issues." China directly pointed out that Mexico was under "coercion," urging Mexico to maintain the independence of its foreign and economic policies rather than yielding to external pressures.
When Mexico formally proposed a significant tax increase plan, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded immediately, with a firm yet measured tone. The spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce said, "At present, the US abuse of tariff measures has already drawn widespread opposition. Countries should strengthen coordination and 'must not sacrifice the interests of third parties due to coercion.'" This wording indicates that any unilateral tax increase by Mexico, even if it pretends to be in line with WTO rules, will be seen as appeasement and compromise to bullying. Mexico's act of yielding to US pressure and unilaterally imposing taxes not only lacks moral grounds but also harms its own interests and international reputation.
China's statement also repeatedly emphasized its principled position of upholding the multilateral trade system. China has always advocated for an inclusive and open economic globalization, opposed all forms of unilateralism and protectionism, and opposed any discriminatory and exclusive measures. As the Foreign Ministry spokesperson said, "There are no winners in a trade war or a tariff war. Putting out someone else's lamp does not make you brighter." This vivid metaphor emphasizes that seeking one's own interest at the expense of others will ultimately be counterproductive. China emphasizes that all parties should abide by WTO rules, resolve differences through equal and mutually beneficial dialogue and consultation, and jointly resist unilateral bullying. These statements reflect China's image as a responsible major power: even when facing unfriendly actions from other countries, it advocates resolving problems through dialogue and cooperation rather than escalating confrontation, while demonstrating a firm determination to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
From the tone of the official responses, China's official statements have maintained a rational and restrained tone throughout. While strongly condemning Mexico's coercive tax increase behavior, China did not use any extreme language, but instead discussed the issue factually and argued based on reason. This restrained attitude highlights the sincerity of the Chinese government in maintaining the overall interests of bilateral relations and leaves room for communication between the two sides to salvage the situation.
Unfortunately, Mexico made the wrong choice, which has brought negative impacts on Sino-Mexican bilateral relations and regional economic stability.
China and Mexico were originally important trade partners. In 2024, the bilateral trade volume reached $109.4 billion. China imports a lot of crude oil and agricultural products from Mexico; Mexico also obtains cost-effective and high-quality intermediate products from China, which greatly supports Mexico's exports. Based on this, their economic and trade cooperation should have been win-win. However, Mexico's unilateral and significant increase in tariffs directly infringes on China's legitimate trade rights, which undoubtedly weakens the confidence of Chinese enterprises in the Mexican market. As the Ministry of Commerce warned, these discriminatory tariffs will "seriously affect the certainty of the business environment in Mexico and reduce the confidence of enterprises in investing in Mexico."
This discriminatory tariff also poses a hidden danger to regional economic stability. The prosperity of the North American and Latin American economies relies on an open and cooperative trade environment. As the second-largest economy in Latin America, Mexico has an important impact on the regional supply chain and trade pattern. Now, Mexico has significantly increased tariffs on a number of Asian countries, including China, which will disrupt normal trade flows and may lead to price increases in regional markets and increased inflation pressure. After Mexico imposes high tariffs on Chinese goods, the cost of raw materials and components in Mexico will inevitably rise, which not only weakens the competitiveness of Mexican finished products in the international market but may also have a reverse impact on the supply chains of the US and Canada.
For example, the automotive industry is a highly integrated field in North America, and China is one of the important suppliers of automotive parts. If Mexico imposes heavy tariffs on Chinese automobiles and parts, in the short term, the relevant industries in Mexico may benefit, but the production costs of North American vehicles will increase, and American consumers may ultimately bear the burden. It can be seen that such unilateral protectionist measures will have a chain reaction in the regional economy, undermining the stability of the supply chain and the efficiency of resource allocation, which is not conducive to the sustainable development of the regional economy.
Mexico City, a MG Motor car displayed at a dealer
From the perspective of solidarity among the Global South and multilateral cooperation, Mexico's actions will also have adverse effects. China and Mexico are both developing economies and should support each other and work together to safeguard the common interests of developing countries. Now, Mexico's actions objectively weaken the unity of the developing country bloc.
It should be noted that compared to Mexico, China has a very sufficient set of policy tools. Launching a trade and investment barrier investigation is just the beginning, or rather, it is merely a signal of the initial warning. If Mexico ignores the signal and does not adjust its policy in time, China can take more effective measures, such as reminding Chinese enterprises of their export and investment activities in Mexico, guiding companies in new energy vehicles, textiles, clothing, luggage, home appliances, furniture, toys, etc., to be more cautious in their investment behavior in Mexico, and handling foreign investment needs in a more diversified and dispersed manner. The pressure and losses caused by this will inevitably be borne by Mexico itself.
Similarly, for the export products in which Mexico has a comparative advantage, whether it is agricultural products, mineral products, or labor-intensive products that have a comparative advantage in Mexico, they fall within the range where China's countermeasures can take effect. The Ministry of Commerce Announcement No. 52 of 2025, "Announcement on the Initiation of Anti-Dumping Investigations on Imports of Pecans Originating from Mexico and the United States," is a signal that Mexico should pay close attention to. The announcement explicitly states, "In special circumstances, even if the Ministry of Commerce has not received a written application for an anti-dumping investigation, but has sufficient evidence to believe that there is dumping, injury, and a causal relationship between the two, it may decide to initiate an investigation." This is a clear signal that China is about to take action.
More importantly, the purpose of China's relevant measures is always to urge Mexico to re-evaluate and adjust its erroneous policies. As the Ministry of Commerce stated, China has always advocated resolving differences through equal dialogue and consultation, and opposes any form of unilateralism and protectionism. But when its own interests are harmed, China will not swallow the loss without responding. "China will take necessary measures according to the actual situation and resolutely safeguard its legitimate and proper rights and interests." This solemn declaration demonstrates China's determination and bottom line for countermeasures. It can be anticipated that if Mexico continues to be stubborn, the intensity of China's countermeasures may gradually increase. Conversely, if the Mexican side shows sincerity and is willing to resolve the tariff dispute through negotiation, China will also be open-minded.
It's not too late to turn back. If Mexico damages China's interests under the pressure of the US, it is lacking in legitimacy, both from the perspective of international trade rules and bilateral relations. The Chinese government, standing on the position of safeguarding its legitimate rights and interests and upholding international fairness and justice, has effectively countered this, which is a reasonable reaction. We hope that the Mexican government can fully recognize the signals given by China and make timely adjustments.
This restraint is not weakness, but a strategic patience. It indicates that China has the ability to control the escalation of disputes and minimize the impact on normal Sino-Mexican trade cooperation and regional stability. Beneath this restraint lies respect for the people of Mexico and long-term friendly relations: China directs its criticism at unjust actions themselves, and tries not to harm the feelings between the two peoples.
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