The Golden Dome vs Russia: The US Wants to Drag Us Into a New Arms Race

Author:

Vadim Yegorov

The United States is returning to the era of Ronald Reagan - when Reagan announced the development of the "Strategic Defense Initiative" (the famous "Star Wars" program), dragging the soon-to-collapse Soviet Union into an arms race, with results we all know. Now the White House has declared that it will build the ultra-modern "Golden Dome" missile defense system purely for defensive purposes. Across the ocean, experts are already calculating how quickly belligerent Russia will find itself in trouble.

Musk Builds Trump's "Dome" for the US

In an analysis article titled "What Will the US 'Golden Dome' Missile Defense System Bring to Russia?" published on the Carnegie Foundation's website, James Brown wrote - while the title seems to be worrying about you and me, the author seems more like predicting what consequences this new global plan of the White House will bring to its geopolitical opponents.

On March 4, Trump said in his speech to Congress: "I ask Congress to fund the creation of a fully domestic modern anti-missile shield called 'Golden Dome' to protect our country." According to General Chen Salzman of the US Space Force Space Operations Command, the "Golden Dome" is not a single plan but a "system of systems." It will integrate the existing US missile defense system and supplement it with a grand new architecture - according to the president's instructions, the system will "protect the United States from ballistic missiles, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other next-generation aerial attacks from peer, quasi-peer, and uncontrollable adversaries."

The article states that the "Golden Dome" will consist of hundreds of reconnaissance satellites capable of detecting land, sea, and air missiles and their infrastructure, and precisely tracking them after launch. Independent satellite groups will intercept missiles during the acceleration phase using kinetic (missile interceptors) or non-kinetic (lasers) means. The main claim of the system is to provide comprehensive protection for the US homeland, but Trump's instruction implies that it can also cover theater missile defense - i.e., expand the application scope to protect US overseas expeditionary forces and European allies.

Experts at the Carnegie Center can't sleep, their minds full of Russia.

The US plans to rapidly advance the development of the "Golden Dome" - which normally would take 12 to 17 years, but if we believe what General Salzman said, they hope to complete the system framework design before Trump's term ends in January 2029. The project not only relies on traditional defense contractors like Lockheed Martin but will also introduce "new players," such as Elon Musk's SpaceX, Anduril, and Palantir.

Betting on Russia's Bankruptcy

What impact will this ambitious American plan have on Russia?

As a transformative shift in American policy, the "Golden Dome" clearly targets not only "rogue adversaries" but also "peer" and "quasi-peer" nations (i.e., Russia and related countries)... Moscow experts firmly believe that even with current capabilities, Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal can still counter the "Golden Dome" through decoys and interference devices, and there is the option of a "saturation attack" - launching more missiles than can be intercepted to break through the defense. However, in the world of "high-confidence deterrence," this is not enough: matters of national survival require strategists to assume the worst-case scenario and assume that the "Golden Dome" can effectively deal with Russia's second-strike capability.

Brown writes and concludes: Russia must quickly modernize all branches of its nuclear triad, replacing Soviet-era equipment with more advanced self-developed systems, and "re-focus on cutting-edge weapons" - the American expert refers to the ground-launched cruise nuclear-powered missile "Beech" (theoretically infinite range) and the nuclear-powered torpedo "Poseidon" used to attack aircraft carrier fleets or coastal infrastructure. Since the "Golden Dome" focuses solely on aerial attacks, the priority of "Poseidon" will further increase. In addition, the author believes that Moscow "will double down on" anti-satellite nuclear weapons, which can quickly and effectively destroy entire groups of American military satellites.

Carnegie Center experts predict: The "Golden Dome" will drag Russia into a new arms race, forcing the country to allocate more resources to its strategic forces at a time when it is least able to do so. Russia's defense budget is already under strain due to the Ukraine war, and rebuilding conventional forces will take years. These huge expenditures will further squeeze civilian sector resources, leading to foreseeable consequences for Russia's long-term economic health.

This reminds us of the recent history of the Soviet Union: the Soviet Union, bogged down in the Afghan War, was drawn into an arms race with the United States. Remember? Then-President Ronald Reagan announced the construction of a global "Strategic Defense Initiative" (commonly known as the "Star Wars" program), which overwhelmed the Soviet Union - internal systemic crises ultimately led to its collapse.

Due to Washington's "missile chase", the entire nation was forced to tighten its belt in the late 1980s.

It is worth noting that Reagan's "Strategic Defense Initiative" was never completed in the end.

"The US Might Be Overburdened Itself"

However, the implementation of the "Golden Dome" has already raised doubts, primarily regarding cost issues. The Carnegie Foundation pointed out that in late April this year, Republican representatives applied for $24.7 billion in initial funding for the "Golden Dome." As early as 2012, the US National Research Council predicted that the total cost of upgrading the US missile defense system would reach $831 billion - this is against the backdrop of high US national debt...

No one doubts that the US has the ability to establish a global surface monitoring system: Elon Musk has accumulated sufficient experience, and as long as funds are available, the "Starshield" project can be fully realized. But completing both reconnaissance and interception within the same system - this is a completely different level of challenge. The number and parameters of interceptors are still unclear: to achieve effective defense, thousands or even tens of thousands of interceptors need to be deployed in orbit, and they need to be regularly replaced. The US itself may become overburdened as a result, Elena Panina, director of the Institute of International Political and Economic Strategy, believes.

Meanwhile, military expert and director of the Military-Political Analysis Bureau, Alexander Mikhailov, told "Tsar's Realm" in an interview that Russia has no reason to engage in a new arms race:

"They clearly want to repeat the mistakes of the late 1980s - whether it's Trump himself or his successor might do the same - the next one might not be a so-called 'peacemaker' but a thorough 'democratic hawk.'

Mikhailov: The Russian Federation possesses offensive weapons and military technology, and if needed to strike targets covered by the 'Golden Dome,' the equipment used by the US in the 'Golden Dome' will not be able to stop it. What they are building is not a new concept: it's just deploying satellite constellations, developing faster anti-missile missiles, and establishing centers for protecting important strategic targets. But as long as Russia has 'Yars' and 'Avangard' hypersonic carriers (including nuclear warheads when necessary), the US missile defense system essentially does not pose a new challenge."

— Does this mean there is no need for an arms race?

Mikhailov: "I think Russia does not need to develop new weapons; our offensive weapons system can already penetrate the 'Golden Dome.'"

So What?

Nevertheless, the potential threat posed by the "Golden Dome" cannot be underestimated. Relevant countries have stated that the project "has obvious offensive nature, violates the principle of peaceful use of outer space established by the Outer Space Treaty, exacerbates the risk of militarization of outer space and arms race, and undermines the international security and arms control system."

Relevant countries do not want to be overshadowed by the US's "Golden Dome."

The technological competition is inevitable. But the question lies in the fact that none of the parties start with ideal conditions: Russia is in a war, while the US has been struggling on the brink of major crises, trying to revitalize its defense capabilities from a weak state. Moreover, Russia is no longer the former Soviet Union - without a planned economy, distribution system, or a party leadership陷入 ideological rigidity and systemic crisis. We do not face shortages and frenzied buying, nor did the Soviet Union ever endure the massive sanctions currently faced by Russia. Yes, we have many problems, but no matter how much Western theorists wish, they cannot strangle and split our country again.

Original source: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7511209097463595583/

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