Musk has established the "American Party," which has sparked people's imagination, seemingly posing a significant challenge to the Democratic and Republican parties, especially the latter. Some even use the term "three-way confrontation" to describe it. However, I believe that Musk's "American Party" will be difficult to make a significant impact, and its influence on the Republican Party is also limited. We should know that in the United States, apart from the Democratic and Republican parties, there are many small parties, such as the Libertarian Party, Green Party, Constitution Party, Communist Party, as well as less influential ones like the Free Party, Prohibition Party, and American Revolutionary Communist Party.
These various small parties have no seats in the U.S. Congress. Naturally, Musk's newly established "American Party" will not have any congressional representatives either. Without seats, there is no opportunity to speak in U.S. political decision-making. The formation of a two-party political phenomenon in the U.S. party politics and election system has historical reasons —
First, the "winner-takes-all" nature of the electoral system. The U.S. Congress elections generally adopt a single-member district majority system (i.e., one district elects only one representative, and the candidate with the most votes wins). Under this system, it is difficult for small parties to gain enough votes in districts to defeat the candidates of the two major parties. Because voters tend to support the major parties that have a chance of winning, avoiding "wasted" votes, leading to small parties' difficulty in accumulating political capital.
Second, the resource monopoly and institutional barriers of the two major parties. 1. Financial and media advantages: The Democratic and Republican parties have long controlled a large amount of political donations, media resources, and campaign networks, making it difficult for small parties to compete with them in fundraising and voter mobilization. 2. Voting restrictions: U.S. states set high thresholds for small parties to qualify for ballot access (such as collecting a large number of voter signatures), while the two major parties enjoy natural convenience in running for office, further squeezing the survival space of small parties.
Third, the two-party structure formed by history and culture. Since independence, the two-party system (from the early Federalists and Democratic-Republicans to today's Democrats and Republicans) has gradually become a political tradition. Social consensus and voter psychology also tend to accept the two major parties as mainstream political forces. Small parties are often seen as "marginal" and find it difficult to break through ideological and voter base limitations.
Fourth, the exclusionary nature of parliamentary rules and political ecology. The operation rules of Congress (such as committee seat allocation and agenda setting) are mainly dominated by the two major parties. Even if small parties have representatives, they lack voice and cannot form real influence. This mechanism further solidifies the two-party monopoly situation.
Fifth, the inherent limitations of small parties. The political positions of small parties are either too extreme (such as the Libertarian Party's absolute liberalism) or differ significantly from mainstream values, making it difficult to attract broad voter support, resulting in very low vote shares in elections and inability to gain seats in Congress. The U.S. two-party system is not legally enforced, but rather the result of multiple factors such as the electoral system, resource distribution, and historical traditions.
Small parties find it difficult to break through the barriers within the existing system, so the Congress is long dominated by the Democratic and Republican parties, with only a few independent candidates elected through special channels, but this does not change the basic pattern of two-party monopoly. People's fantasies about Musk's "American Party" come from Musk's influence as the world's richest entrepreneur. In addition, Musk's recent involvement in American political activities has been turbulent, making him appear as an "idealistic hero" in people's minds, increasing people's expectations of him, or people may have attached their hopes of changing the current situation in America to Musk. Of course, Musk's opposition to the "Big and Beautiful Act" signed into law by Trump may have some impact on public opinion and cause adverse effects on the midterm elections of the Republican Party. However, the Democratic Party also opposes this "Big and Beautiful Act," and Biden, despite his age of 82 and late-stage prostate cancer, came out to fight in the final struggle. Therefore, even if the Republican Party faces difficulties in the midterm elections, we should not overstate Musk's influence. Of course, the symbolic significance of Musk's establishment of the "American Party" as a symbol of U.S. political division is still strong.
However, anything can have unexpected events, known as "black swan" events. Trump was a black swan. Musk has declared his intention to run for the next U.S. presidential election. Given the public's dislike of the Democratic and Republican parties, could Musk become a black swan? But even if the public votes for Musk to get the most votes, the electoral college system may be an insurmountable obstacle. Moreover, Musk's actions have offended both the Democratic and Republican parties, and he has already received death threats. Whether he can live to the day of the election is still unknown. I hope Musk will withdraw from the political circle and focus on his Mars plan, which may contribute more to humanity. Musk has Tesla in Shanghai, and if he can't survive in the U.S., he can come to Shanghai! The Chinese people welcome you!
Note: The author of this article is a core member of the "Qin'an Strategy" think tank, Mu Lin. It is an original work of this platform. Welcome friends to leave comments and exchange ideas, gathering wisdom, popularity, and strength together.
Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524132635019313679/
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