【Text by Observer Network Columnist Zhou Deyu】

Elon Musk's "American Party" has been established.

The goal is clear: to oppose Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," and through the formation of a real third party to influence politics, calling on supporters to break free from the two-party system:

Of course, the biggest question right now is, the two-party system in the United States is deeply rooted, where can this outsider shake it? He couldn't even manage his own "Department of Government Efficiency," let alone have the political ability to build a party?

Although this obvious logic does not apply to someone like Musk who is extremely self-confident, Musk isn't completely without considering these issues. So he claims that his preliminary goals are not too high, and he doesn't want to replace the existing parties in one step, but rather focus on two or three Senate districts and about ten House districts, to be the key minority that can determine policies:

Musk's idea can't be said to be entirely without reason. After all, the two parties have long been in a stalemate in Congress, with very close seats, and just a few votes can change the balance. For example, the recently passed "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" was passed in a 50-50 tie in the Senate with the vice president's additional vote. If there were an additional opposition member from a third party in the Senate, Musk would really be able to block the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" he strongly opposes.

However, if we look back at the history of third parties in the United States, people with Musk's ideas are not rare, and even the name "American Party" is no longer new. Where have those "American Parties" gone, why is the United States still a two-party system?

In fact, there have been many third parties in American history, and several parties that have won certain congressional seats or presidential electoral votes can be listed.

For example, the earliest "American Party" (American Party), also known as the "Know Nothing Party," was founded in the 1840s. I mentioned this party in my previous article, which was a party built on the conspiracy theory that "Catholic immigrants intended to control America":

As written on its flag: "Native Americans, beware of foreign influences!" On one hand, this earliest "American Party" was similar to the current Republican Party, opposing immigration, upholding conservative values and traditional values. On the other hand, this party wanted to avoid the issue of slavery, which had split the country, and maintained a third-party stance, avoiding taking sides on the issue of slavery.

This "American Party" reached its peak in the 1850s, having five Senate seats and more than 50 House seats, and attracted many mainstream politicians to join. The 13th President of the United States, Millard Fillmore, ran for president under the "American Party" in the 1856 presidential election, winning 20% of the popular vote and 8 electoral votes.

This 19th-century "American Party" was even more successful than Musk's plan, but what happened later? Of course, like other American third parties in history, it quickly disappeared after a brief success, with its members either joining other parties or becoming complete outsiders.

For example, the most recent "American Party" was founded in 1969, with the following logo:

This "American Party" of 1969 was originally the "American Independent Party" of the famous politician George Wallace. George Wallace was a Democratic Party politician who upheld racial segregation, but as both the Democratic and Republican parties supported the civil rights movement and opposed racial segregation, his position became increasingly difficult to find support within the existing two parties. Therefore, Wallace ran as the "American Independent Party" in the 1968 election, attracting a large number of white southerners and successfully winning 46 electoral votes from several southern states.

Wallace's strategy in the 1968 election was not truly to win the election, but to disrupt the third party so that no one could win more than half of the electoral votes, thereby dragging the election into a "contingent election" decided by the House of Representatives. In such an election, pro-segregation southern politicians could form a critical minority, forcing those who wanted to win the presidential election to make concessions. However, since Nixon directly won more than half of the electoral votes in the 1968 election, the "contingent election" did not occur, and Wallace's strategy failed.

After the 1968 election, Wallace realized that the third-party route could not succeed and returned to the Democratic Party. The "American Independent Party" and "American Party" that continued to maintain the third-party path, without mainstream politicians, although they existed for many years, had no influence.

Other than the two "American Parties" mentioned above, the paths of other third parties in American history were similar. Whether composed of political newcomers or mainstream politicians, these third parties ultimately faced the same fate: either disappearing or being absorbed or returning to the mainstream two parties. Their highest achievement could only be winning some votes on a specific issue in an election, but quickly losing influence after the election.

So even if Musk manages to win some seats as he envisioned, then what? It's not hard to gain a place in the political arena, but how to maintain its existence afterward is an obstacle that all "American Parties" in history have failed to overcome.

It is a long-standing political reality and institutional design that makes it difficult for a stable third party to emerge in the United States today.

From the institutional design perspective, an electoral system that "wins all" in most levels naturally allows only two parties. If you don't win a majority, 49% and 4.9% of the votes are indistinguishable. Therefore, most voters will not want to waste their votes on a third party that is unlikely to win a majority. Third parties also struggle to convince voters that they can beat the mainstream two parties, and donors are unwilling to continuously invest in such a party.

With the development of the Democratic and Republican parties in American society for over a century, it is even more difficult to create a separate third party. After all, the two parties monopolize almost all political channels and organizational relationships from top to bottom, controlling the finances and manpower needed for campaign promotion and publicity. Even if someone who wants to establish a third party is powerful and influential, compared to the well-established two parties, they can only appear inferior.

Musk may think that spending $290 million in the 2024 election is already very wealthy, but this amount is even insufficient for the Ohio Senate election in 2024, let alone the national election. Even if the money problem is solved, he still has to face the mature grassroots organizations and political channels of the two parties, otherwise he wouldn't know where to mobilize voters.

Therefore, over the past century, even those briefly successful third parties have almost always been mainstream politicians who temporarily split and quickly returned. Only those who already enjoy the resources of the existing two parties can occasionally rebel.

Musk may really think that establishing a party and running a company to develop rockets are the same thing, believing that he can do what Trump can do, lacking respect for politics. But the various obstacles and hardships in actually starting a third party, once he really gets started, he will understand.

Therefore, even the currently prosperous Trump once tried to run for president through a third party in 2000, but hit a wall and eventually gave up.

In fact, Trump's proposals in 2016 were not much different from those in 2000, but only by relying on the platform of the Republican Party could he get his proposals heard and seen by more people, and eventually turn them into influence and power. Therefore, even after the Capitol riot in 2021, when Trump fell into a low point and was abandoned by many Republican establishment figures, he never left the Republican Party.

Yes, Americans are increasingly dissatisfied with the establishment of the two parties, and increasingly hope to find new political possibilities, but these new possibilities often end up being realized within the two parties, just like Trump did. Any anti-establishment proposal that gains considerable public support can be absorbed and utilized by the existing two parties with substantial resources, leaving no space for a third party.

Therefore, the greatest possibility for Musk to influence politics through a new party is to focus on certain issues that attract the public's attention in the next election, attract some influential politicians to switch to his side, and ultimately make his proposals receive attention from the mainstream two parties.

But Musk's current problem is that he can't even come up with any clear, truly attractive proposals for the public and politicians. Although Musk may achieve success in economic and technological matters by following his unique ideas, politics ultimately relies on interpersonal relationships. Although many people are dissatisfied with the existing two parties and hope for new solutions to America's problems, Musk's billionaire status and elite right-wing views have little appeal for most Democratic and Republican voters.

For the two-party politicians, the Democrats and Musk are already on opposite sides, while the Republicans have just been criticized by Musk, so how many people would be willing to stand with Musk?

Of course, looking at the arduous process of passing the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," the Republicans are still largely united, but there are some internal divisions that Musk can exploit. If Musk is willing to lower his stance and invest seriously in some people, occupying the ecological niche of Trump's opponents within the Republican Party, he can still exert some influence in the midterm elections.

However, Musk's current political abilities and influence are quite limited. He recently spent a lot of money to support the judge election in Wisconsin, but suffered a major defeat, even having a negative effect of inspiring the Democratic opponent. It's unclear how many lessons he can learn from this failed political investment?

Moreover, ultimately, even when Musk was close to the U.S. president, he couldn't get what he wanted, so can buying a few minority lawmakers really achieve his goals? He will eventually realize that his best opportunity to influence American politics, the one who truly understands him in the American political arena, is ultimately that former confidant who once talked and laughed with him in the White House, and now has a falling out with him but still keeps a bit of dignity, Trump.

This article is exclusive content from Observer Network. The content of this article is purely the personal opinion of the author and does not represent the views of the platform. Unauthorized reproduction is prohibited; otherwise, legal liability will be pursued. Follow the Observer Network WeChat account guanchacn to read interesting articles every day.

Original article: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7524121207558488585/

Statement: This article represents the personal views of the author. Please express your attitude by clicking on the [Up/Down] buttons below.