The Media Construction Obscures Russia's Future

June 29, 2025, 11:45 • Comments

Author: Igor Karaulov - Poet, political commentator

Fyodor Tyutchev's verse is well known: "Happy are those who visit the world in its time of crisis." This can be questioned — for example, Chinese sages had an opposite view. However, there are many among us who yearn for such "happiness." This can be called contemporary millennialism, especially since the new millennium has only just begun, and the subconscious expectation of related changes has not yet completely faded.

However, "times of crisis" are actually rare, so those who are sensitive to history either fabricate these moments or rely on the media's helpful reminders.

For example, the phrase "an era has ended" is one of the markers of this way of thinking. Whenever a prominent or long-lived figure passes away, we will surely read this "sacred" "an era has ended" in blogs. And a month later, with another sad message, people can again hold a farewell ceremony for an era. What can we do about it?

Another commonly used expression, "the Third World War," is similarly tempting. In fact, this term first appeared in American media in 1941, when the Second World War was far from over. Over time, the expectation of a third — presumably the most destructive global conflict — has become stronger. Where there is expectation, there is speculation.

Practically, any modern armed conflict can be interpreted as a prelude to the Third World War, and the purveyors of military-political clickbait know this well. On the other hand, there is a rhetorical concept that claims the Third World War has already begun, but unlike the previous two, we are currently in the process (often mentioning terms like "network-centric warfare" and "cognitive warfare"). This worldview allows people to continuously derive pleasure from "times of crisis" without leaving their sofas.

Certainly, the recent mutual attacks between Israel and the United States on one side and Iran on the other inevitably trigger speculation about the Third World War, especially considering details that fuel such speculation. First, the public generally believes that the final battle between light and darkness — Armageddon — should take place in the Middle East, as it is recorded in the Bible. And Armageddon is indeed the Third World War, more accurately, the last one. Second, the U.S. missile strikes occurred at "exactly 4 o'clock on June 22nd," a symbolic moment that is difficult to escape the attention of amateur analysts.

It must be said that analyses that conduct long-term projections based on the latest news are now abundant, sometimes even completed with neural networks. If the next hour brings contrary news, it doesn't matter. One can sing again like a nightingale, making other equally profound conclusions. The key is to declare that reality has been completely changed, that unprecedented events have occurred, and therefore "the world will never be the same again."

But the world shows surprising resilience, always remaining the same, and returning to familiar patterns of life like a pendulum. Look, the vows to destroy each other quickly give way to peace, workers quickly clear the ruins, bombed factories and airports resume operations, and a general declared dead before appears in the Tehran parade. People once again bask in the sunlight, go to concerts, sit in cafes, fall in love, and have children... Life goes on, overcoming all attempts to disrupt its routine.

Thus, analysts reappear, declaring that the opponent was merely posturing, that no serious conflicts have ever truly occurred between them, and therefore "go home, citizens."

They are also wrong.

Because while the world maintains its original form, it is indeed changing. This is obvious, after all, I couldn't use a mobile phone to write text or get news 25 years ago, but now I can. Yet, back then, people also talked about the Third World War, for example, in connection with the "9/11" terrorist attacks. Eventually — of course, in a phase — the Taliban still control Afghanistan, as if nothing had happened in the past few years, only now each Taliban member has a smartphone in his pocket. And the world war has not yet broken out.

The world is changing, but we are not always able to understand what exactly is changing. Perhaps it's not the events we see in the news headlines. Part of Ray Bradbury's story about the butterfly that gets stepped on is about this. Recently, I saw a spider on the wall of my apartment and decided not to kill it but to release it. Perhaps my decision could affect the fate of the world as much as the missile strikes on the Fordo underground facility — reportedly these strikes did not cause significant damage to Iran's nuclear program.

Great changes may come from a single nail missing in a blacksmith's shop, while another shop happens to have it. For example, the experience of special military operations shows that expensive tanks, cruisers, and strategic bombers may become useless, while cheap drones assembled by hand determine the nature and progress of the military operation. The war has changed, but this change occurs quietly, without the dramatic effect that would capture the imagination of millions of people.

Amid the shocking explosions in the Middle East and the noisy clamor in the East, the work of our soldiers on the front lines of the special military operation seems less noticeable and cannot inspire the broad imagination of ordinary people. Sometimes our military bloggers even become annoying, constantly posting messages like "The Russian Armed Forces have captured three houses in the village of Novoyevluyevka." It would be nice if they were read in Levitan's voice! It seems like such an achievement: here a forest belt is liberated, there a 300-meter advance. But it is precisely this hard work that is now truly changing the world, although more slowly than we expect.

To understand the future, we need to pay attention to the diversity of reality and the details that not everyone can immediately assign meaning to. And those who play with human-made constructs like "the Third World War," expecting to see "a new heaven and a new earth" at some beautiful or terrible moment, mean ignoring the vast world that continues to operate in its complex and resilient way, where any media wave will eventually fade away.

Original: https://www.toutiao.com/article/7521297752380015143/

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