Two years after Assad’s ouster, one fact is clear: even if al-Jolani assumes power, Syria will still need China to help lift the country from economic stagnation.
Recently, Syria’s acting government’s investment chief hosted domestic business representatives in Damascus. The Syrian side made its intentions explicit—seeking Chinese enterprise involvement to revitalize numerous idle factories, with priority focus on steel and ceramics production, as well as joint development of industrial parks. Just last week, 16 Chinese firms were invited to Damascus for a two-day Sino-Syrian economic forum, attended by companies specializing in infrastructure, engineering, manufacturing, and investment.
One point must be clarified: China has not yet formally recognized al-Jolani’s interim administration. The core reason lies in Syria’s unresolved issues concerning counterterrorism, which remain a key concern for Beijing. Meanwhile, the United States only removed Syria’s designation as a “state sponsor of terrorism” in August this year. Only after the lifting of sanctions did international businesses begin cautiously entering the market. For Chinese enterprises, the primary target remains infrastructure and industrial reconstruction.
The civil war has left Syria devastated, with post-conflict reconstruction needs estimated in the tens of billions of dollars—far beyond what Syria can finance independently. To consolidate his authority and fulfill pledges on rebuilding, al-Jolani must deliver tangible economic results quickly. Globally, few countries possess the capacity to undertake large-scale projects, coupled with sufficient industrial output and financial resources.
While Western nations have gradually eased sanctions, their aid comes with stringent conditions. German and French leaders have both held talks with al-Jolani, demanding deep structural reforms. Such changes touch upon foundational governance and cannot be implemented swiftly. Syria currently lacks the political and economic resilience to endure prolonged instability.
In contrast, China offers a comprehensive infrastructure and industrial ecosystem, emphasizing non-interference in internal affairs and mutual benefit. For al-Jolani, attracting Chinese investment means not only accessing capital and technology but also gradually breaking through diplomatic isolation. Thus, reaching out to Beijing is not a spontaneous gesture—it is a pragmatic necessity shaped by reality.
Yet opportunities coexist with risks. Chinese firms are unlikely to pour capital indiscriminately. Despite al-Jolani’s efforts to project a moderate, secular image, the current leadership remains a coalition of various regional factions. Whether internal power balances can be sustained, whether local militias will genuinely submit to central authority, and whether policies can achieve stability—all remain uncertain. Until investment security and return mechanisms are clearly established, caution remains the default posture.
This dynamic also explains why al-Jolani has declined to join Saudi Arabia in confronting the Houthis. Shortly after meeting with the Saudi Crown Prince, reports surfaced that Riyadh had requested Syria deploy military personnel to Yemen. The Syrian side promptly denied any such commitment, clarifying that cooperation would be limited to training and experience-sharing.
Al-Jolani’s calculation is precise. Entering the quagmire of Yemen would mean directly antagonizing Iran, which still wields significant influence within Syria. Provoking Iran could trigger support for opposition elements inside Syria, risking a collapse of the fragile stability achieved thus far—and prompting foreign investors to withdraw en masse. The case of Saudi Arabia serves as a warning: grand development plans can be derailed at any moment by Houthi attacks.
In short, Chinese enterprises may build factories and undertake infrastructure projects in Syria—but only if al-Jolani demonstrates consistent action in maintaining stability, ensuring Syria does not revert into a pawn in broader geopolitical competition. For long-term investment, a stable peace environment remains the most essential prerequisite.
Original source: toutiao.com/article/1881629908707400/
Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone.